Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[baumer]

3 hours ago, harrycaul said:

No, they're saying that ww $270m implies ancillaries will make it profitable. They're likely right.

 

Well, with ancillaries most films make a profit.  Tomb Raider won't turn a profit theatrically, then again most films don't.

[MCKillswitch123]

The Era Of Emily has begun. Besides a stunning hold for Sherlock Gnomes (this thing is gonna hit 4.5-5x OW and it'll kinda irk me that both it and Peter Rabbit could go over 4x but Paddington 2 couldn't), A Quiet Place's ridiculous opening is now the 2nd biggest of the year. On a 17M budget, that's 3x the production budget, so we're already in the green here.

 

Blockers also very good off the bat w/21.4M. Will it match Game Night's 70? I dunno, we have to wait and see as whether or not will the alt-right losers lead a revolt against it. But odds are it's possible. And on a low 20's budget, that's great. Biggest non-franchise comedy opening since Girls Trip.

 

Have to admit that RPO is anything but frontloaded. That 40% drop from FSS OW is pretty damn good. 150+ DOM finish is well in the realm of possibility, 550-600M WW alive for a solid little run overall.

 

BP seems good to go for 700M, and ICOI still stands a solid 100M chance. Never thought I would ever say or write that. Unbelievable.

 

PRU and Tomb Raider continue their freefall on the way to sub-60M DOM and around 280M WW finish. Still not too bad for TR as it managed a profit, but Uprising on the other hand... yikes.

 

AWIT's 100M chance is still alive, holy shit! If it follows Gnomeo & Juliet from here on out (it dropped a lot better on 5th weekend, and while Gnomeo still made 0.5M more the same w/e, WIT still has around 1M more in total gross overall at the same point in time), it might pull it off, though BARELY. For what's worth, it has no direct PG family competition from here on out, and maybe Infinity War will give it double screenings, so let's see if it crawls to the mark or not.

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

 

But that's not entirely true.  It will not make three times its budget.  It will actually lose money if you go by domestic gross alone.  And that's how it's been discussed since the dawn of time.  If you want to use the WW gross, that's fine, but then you have to add the marketing budget and I'm pretty sure you can add another 100 million to the films budget.  So it's not going to be in the black from theatrical alone.

You are talking about 2 very outdated concept (looking at domestic and some expression about being in the black from theatrical alone something almost no Marvel movie do).

 

Everyone always take into account world releasing cost, who would not want to use the WW gross for a movie and why ?

 

If TR would made 500m it would have not been in the black from theatrical alone, look at Thor 3 estimate:

 

http://deadline.com/2018/03/thor-ragnarok-box-office-profit-2017-1202349475/

 

Theatrical rental: $367m

Total cost minus the home ent release and residual: $409m

 

That gave an idea of how high of a strange standard that from theatrical alone expression is, now think about from domestic theatrical alone.... almost no big movie ever achieved that. With a 50m theatrical release, a movie with a 110m budget + overhead would need to do over 300m domestic to break even from domestic theatrical alone and that would be by cheating and not considering the massive participation bonus that would have started.

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Barnack

[Spidey Freak]

39 minutes ago, harrycaul said:

What are marketing costs like on Christian films? I can't imagine they're very high at all. Seems like it would be largely wom, with some very inexpensive ad buys mixed in.

The new fad is paying churches to recommend them to their congregations. A sermon is chosen that reflects the message of the promoted film to make it easier to shill.  

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

Well, with ancillaries most films make a profit.  Tomb Raider won't turn a profit theatrically, then again most films don't.

Most if by a bit over 50% that is true, if by the vast majority that was not the case.

 

Ancillaries are most of the revenues for a studio for most movies and were all of the profits are made for almost all movies, profit theatrically is not just most film's don't, it is closer to almost none do since the marketing cost for a release exploded.

 

It is not an expression ever mentioned in any of the Sony leaked e-mail or document I have read, never seen it calculated, not sure it is something that exist has an expression outside film Internet, probably something that exist because box office number are somewhat public and people think movie budget are public (or think they are a much larger % of a movie total cost than in reality)

[John Marston]

Tomb Raider is not a flop but I don’t know if it is successful enough for a sequel especially with the domestic freefall

[svenson]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Tomb Raider is not a flop but I don’t know if it is successful enough for a sequel especially with the domestic freefall

It is and we are getting a sequel. A movie with now on 2.8x budget is a win to any studio its not like its made all its money in China either like some Warcraft or something like that. It will launch a franchise. Pretty much all agree that Vkander is fantastic and the only problem is the story for some. That they can make better in a follow up too. They can release it in the summer or December where movies have more legs because of the holidays. The sequel can cost 80-85 million thats a decent budget for an adventure action flick.

Edited April 8, 2018 by svenson

[Porthos]

36 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos

 

Do the thing.

Live look at CoolEric258's "All Disney films over 100m club":

 

Edited April 8, 2018 by Porthos

[Valonqar]

42 minutes ago, Ghostbusters! said:

? Lol, hard to use the term obliterated when comparing a movie that made 950MM world wide to 3 movies that made close to 850MM worldwide. 

 

You could accurately say jumanji obliterated justice league....

well, 50-100M more is still obliteration especially since Jumanji wasn't supposed to make even half of what it made. And everything obliterated Justice League so no point mentioning that one. I'm not taking potshots at Marvel if that's why you sound offended. I mentioned Wonder Woman. 

[CoolioD1]

i'm always disappointed that emily blunt couldn't hold on to that black widow gig. and i'm always elated that john krasinski never booked captain america.

[Porthos]

@CoolEric258

 

Oh, you meant comp/projections?

 

Just woke up.  Have to wait till later.  But a 3m+ weekend is EXACTLY what AWiT needed, IMO.

 

[Eric is Quiet]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Live look at CoolEric258's "All Disney films over 100m club":

 

Please tell me you made this glorious gif. 

[harrycaul]

There will be another Tomb Raider film simply because the concept is too solid for Hollywood to let go. Who will be involved is another question entirely.

[Valonqar]

Emily has always been around, pretty close to top but not on it, and now she's peaking at the right time. This is going to be her year. Everything is better than peaking too early. There are so many actors that either aren't working or aren't in anything relevant so we don't know if they are working. 

[Eric is Quiet]

3 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i'm always disappointed that emily blunt couldn't hold on to that black widow gig. and i'm always elated that john krasinski never booked captain america.

When you had a chance to be in the biggest franchise ever, but a schlubby comedian takes your chances away.

 

[The Panda]

To reach 100m ICOI needs a 4.64x Multi off of this weekend.  Not easily but doable based off these great drops, especially since that’s a 20% drop from Easter Weekend.

[svenson]

1 minute ago, harrycaul said:

There will be another Tomb Raider film simply because the concept is too solid for Hollywood to let go. Who will be involved is another question entirely.

Vikander is perfect and she will be back. Audience were positively surprised and so was the critics. There is no reason to dump her when she was the mostly praised about TR. TR2 will have more adventure and action i think because the first was an origin story

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Please tell me you made this glorious gif. 

I most certainly did.

 

Was going to post in this thread later today if AWiT got the number I was expecting, but you poking me like this was the perfect opportunity to use it. 

[narniadis]

IF they make another TR it will follow the pattern of Pacific Rim and also Cradle of Life - it will tank.

 

Also @baumer the 3x the budget world wide for profit has been a standard on this board now for a few years at least.

 

@svenson you will learn, young stan, you will learn. (btw, I said Most films, not all films....)

[Blaze Heatnix]

I think they should make another Tomb Raider movie, BUT they really should make a good movie or it'll turn into Tomb Raider Uprising...