Weekend Thread | Estimates: AQP 50M, RP1 25M, CKBLK 21.4M, BP 8.4M,

[Zakiyyah6]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I must admit, I really don't understand how TR is struggling for a 2.5x multi DOM. It's easily superior to most of the trash video game adaptations of the past and it's not like competition was fierce or something. I'm wondering if maybe there was just too much of a stigma to overcome given it's both a video game adaptation and the franchise that every one associates with video game movies in the first place. I think too many people just assumed it would be trash and just being a decent action/adventure movie wasn't enough to overcome that. Would have probably had to be really exceptional.

Yeah, I don't think that decent with mixed reviews was enough. The video game movie needs a Superman 78 or Batman 89 type film that captures the public's interest and makes the genre not a huge joke.

[MovieMan89]

On the topic of movies that we're not sure how profitable they may or may not be, I wonder where WiT is going to end up for Disney? It will make back its budget DOM, so that's always a good thing in terms of not being too big of a money loser, but that OS performance....dear lord is that bleak. Is it even going to open in many more markets? Is it already almost done at 21m? 

 

TR and WiT have what the other needs, lol. 

Edited April 8, 2018 by MovieMan89

[dxmatrixdt]

A Quiet Place maybe 1 million more*

It sounds like Tomb Raider might be making a bunch of sequels which seems swell.  

A Wrinkle in Time will probably fall +50% next weekend.

Edited April 9, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Avatree]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

On the topic of movies that we're not sure how profitable they may or may not be, I wonder where WiT is going to end up for Disney? It will make back its budget DOM, so that's always a good thing in terms of not being too big of a money loser, but that OS performance....dear lord is that bleak. Is it even going to open in many more markets? Is it already almost done at 21m? 

 

TR and WiT have what the other needs, lol. 

it has a few eastern european countries left - where it will probably bomb too.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, November Treejax said:

it has a few eastern european countries left - where it will probably bomb too.

So what's looking like a likely OS total? 

[John Marston]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

On the topic of movies that we're not sure how profitable they may or may not be, I wonder where WiT is going to end up for Disney? It will make back its budget DOM, so that's always a good thing in terms of not being too big of a money loser, but that OS performance....dear lord is that bleak. Is it even going to open in many more markets? Is it already almost done at 21m? 

 

TR and WiT have what the other needs, lol. 

 

 

Bomb. Zero profit 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Very very good for A quiet place. I loved it. It’s going to take something special to knock it off as my favorite of the year (looking at you Incredibles 2). Blockers also with a good debut. Great idea to release it Wrestlemania weekend. BP also looks pretty locked to pass Last Jedi worldwide and looking like it could run down Deathly Hallows 2 as well

[Avatree]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

So what's looking like a likely OS total? 

really depends on what it did this weekend. I don't know if the OS number on BOM has been updated for international estimates for this week. Since it opened in some big markets last weekend eg Mexico where it opened to $900K. If the number on BOM is a week old and the south american markets hold well then it could go over 30M? but we are really talking about single digit millions. It will finish under 35M and most likely under 30M. It has bombed in every single OS territory. And it's not getting a China release either.

[svenson]

17 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Although I do also think the TR marketing kinda screamed "wait for Netflix" to those who might have a minor interest in it, so I am curious to see if it has a strong streaming/rental performance. 

i agree the marketing cost for this could not have been huge.

 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, November Treejax said:

really depends on what it did this weekend. I don't know if the OS number on BOM has been updated for international estimates for this week. Since it opened in some big markets last weekend eg Mexico where it opened to $900K. If the number on BOM is a week old and the south american markets hold well then it could go over 30M? but we are really talking about single digit millions. It will finish under 35M and most likely under 30M. It has bombed in every single OS territory. And it's not getting a China release either.

Sub 30m has to be the biggest big budget OS bomb in ages. That's just practically unheard of today. Disney chose the right film to finally be budget conscious on opposed to throwing $200m+ at anything and everything like they normally do. That would have been a disaster for WiT.

Edited April 8, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Avatree]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Sub 30m has to be the biggest big budget OS bomb in ages. That's just practically unheard of today. Disney choose the right film to finally be budget conscious on opposed to throwing $200m+ at anything and everything like they normally do. That would have been a disaster for WiT.

It's not a surprise that the film bombed, but yes it is quite stunning just how much it bombed. I don't think the marketing made it very clear what the film was about, which was fine in America where people may be familiar with the book, but the book is not known about outside of the US. Some of the casting probably didn't help - Oprah may be something of a draw? in the US but again no one outside of the US cares about Oprah. Not that I think she's responsible for it bombing, just I think there are several things about the film that can have appeal to domestic audience and not OS. 

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

Bomb. Zero profit 

 

On 4/6/2018 at 12:59 AM, Porthos said:

Late to the party on this, and I really don't want to disrupt the thread since it moved on, but I just wanted to chime in that we should try to go back to bust vs bomb.  

 

Underperforming films that cost studios money are busts.  Films that tank harder than a basketball team chasing the lottery ping pong balls are the films which should be called bombs. 

 

"Bust" is commonly used in the sports world for something highly touted that doesn't work out, so it seems natural that we should use it here for similar situations.  Leave the word bomb for the films that deserve it.

 

[filmscholar]

RPO is headed to over 500 WW, That's great IMO.   AQP is a hit, nothing but icing on the cake from here on out.   Wonder how far it can go with the holds.  Some are looking at "Get Out" but I wonder if "Split" is a better comparison.  Had a 40 Million OW and legged it's way over a 3x Multiplier.   If this does that we are looking at over 150 Domestically. 

[Boxofficerules]

7 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

RPO is headed to over 500 WW, That's great IMO.   AQP is a hit, nothing but icing on the cake from here on out.   Wonder how far it can go with the holds.  Some are looking at "Get Out" but I wonder if "Split" is a better comparison.  Had a 40 Million OW and legged it's way over a 3x Multiplier.   If this does that we are looking at over 150 Domestically. 

Truth Or Dare will Chainsaw off its legs next week.

[filmlover]

55 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

On the topic of movies that we're not sure how profitable they may or may not be, I wonder where WiT is going to end up for Disney? 

Somewhere between a disappointment and a flop. It underperformed domestically and was completely ignored all over the rest of the world (and will likely uphold a mediocre reputation, if not forgotten about, as a movie for the foreseeable future).

[MrGlass2]

16 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Truth Or Dare will Chainsaw off its legs next week.

Hard to say that with no review, while AQP has everything going for it.

[aabattery]

5 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

 

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Somewhere between a disappointment and a flop.

AWiT is 100% flop.

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

Truth Or Dare will Chainsaw off its legs next week.

You're the only person who thinks Truth or Dare will be a threat to anything.

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

AWiT is 100% flop.

It won't be profitable with such a pathetic OS haul, but I don't think you can call it a bomb. That requires the studio lost a lot of money on it, and they won't lose that much on a movie that cost $100m and at least made that back DOM.