AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[raulbalarezo]

21 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I'm not a big gamer, but Square is announcing a new Avengers game next week - will that perhaps contribute to a small boost in numbers? 

 

[Juby]

16 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Range is 1.915-1.920B now. Domestic 645-650M. Finish 2.760-2.770B. 

Technically, a full force expansion both DOM and OS can do it, but i doubt it.

 

One more time - this domestic number is almost impossible at this point! $836-841M is where the movie is heading.

 

 

[john2000]

13 minutes ago, Juby said:

 

One more time - this domestic number is almost impossible at this point! $836-841M is where the movie is heading.

 

 

we got it, there is no need to repeat yourself, it becomes annoying

[Omni]

The projected domestic total keeps decreasing (875 > 850/860 > 840/850 > 840 at best...), so I'll just trust the trend and say the movie will stop at 810M. Mark my words.

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Omni said:

The projected domestic total keeps decreasing (875 > 850/860 > 840/850 > 840 at best...), so I'll just trust the trend and say the movie will stop at 810M. Mark my words.

idk, maybe it wont even hit 800 dom

[nguyenkhoi282]

1 hour ago, Juby said:

 

One more time - this domestic number is almost impossible at this point! $836-841M is where the movie is heading.

 

 

When i said a range, i calculated its way there. Not saying your range is unreasonable, but i have my way. Stop overreacting as it's getting annoying.

[Juby]

2 hours ago, Omni said:

The projected domestic total keeps decreasing (875 > 850/860 > 840/850 > 840 at best...), so I'll just trust the trend and say the movie will stop at 810M. Mark my words.

 

Actually, Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru has predicted $875-900M after Endgame's second weekend, $850M after the third weekend, ~$845M after the fourth, and around $835M 2 days ago.

 

http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm

 

@nguyenkhoi282

Would You share with us, how Endgame can add another $29.3-34.3M domestic from now on, if You don't mind?

[Omni]

Probably a FFH boost.

[Shanks]

Where I see it heading, Without rerelease or any bumps from Disney: I have not taken any Spiderman bump either if it happens.

 

	Infinity War						EG
Week			Gross		Drop %		Gross		Drop %		CUME
1			338.33				473.8
2			147.6		56.37%		186.55		60.63%		660.4
3			80.34		45.57%		80.95		56.61%		741.3	Pikachu
4	DP2		38.83		51.67%		39.93		50.67%		781.2	JW 3
5	Solo		27.304		29.68%		26.35		34.01%		807.6	Aladdin
6			15.398		43.61%		12.01		54.42%		819.6	Godzilla
7	Ocean's 8		11.06		28.17%		6.67		44.46%		826.3	X-Men
8	Incredible2		8.08		26.94%		4.89		26.69%		831.2	MIB 4
9	JW		4.09		49.38%		2.78		43.15%		833.9	TS 4
10			2.84		30.56%		1.68		39.57%		835.6
11	AM & W		1.47		48.24%		1.34		20.24%		837	SM: FFH
12			1.03		29.93%		1		25.37%		838
13			0.722		29.90%		0.7		30.00%		838.7	TLK
REST			1.66				1.54				840.2
TOTAL			678.81				840.19

Edited June 4, 2019 by Shanks

[nguyenkhoi282]

•‎6th
-weekend (8) [-52%] = 815.7
-‎weekdays (4) = 819.7

•‎7th 
-weekend (5.3) [-34%] = 825 <= Dark Phoenix
-‎weekdays (2.7) = 827.7

•‎8th 
-weekend (3.6) [-32%] = 831.3 <= Men in Black
-‎weekdays (2.1) = 833.4

•‎9th (4.1) [-29%] = 837.5 <= Toy Story 4

•‎10th (3) [-25%] = 840.5 <= Pre-Spider-Man

•‎11th (3.5) [-0%] = 844 <= Far From Home

•12th (2.5) [-33%] = 846.5 <= Post-Spider-Man

•13th (2) [-20%] = 848.5 <= The Lion King

•14th (1.5) [-25%] = 850

=> Final = $853M (2.40x multiplier), 859M with Labour Day Expansion

 

A lot of "if" here. But historical data proved that it could be done.

[keysersoze123]

There is no chance of it having 34% drop this weekend. its gonna lose chunk of theaters and screens. it will probably see its 1st boost when TS4 opens.

[nguyenkhoi282]

9 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

There is no chance of it having 34% drop this weekend. its gonna lose chunk of theaters and screens. it will probably see its 1st boost when TS4 opens.

Disney is distributing Dark Phoenix now. 

[AlexMA]

41 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

•‎6th
-weekend (8) [-52%] = 815.7
-‎weekdays (4) = 819.7

•‎7th 
-weekend (5.3) [-34%] = 825 <= Dark Phoenix
-‎weekdays (2.7) = 827.7

•‎8th 
-weekend (3.6) [-32%] = 831.3 <= Men in Black
-‎weekdays (2.1) = 833.4

•‎9th (4.1) [-29%] = 837.5 <= Toy Story 4

•‎10th (3) [-25%] = 840.5 <= Pre-Spider-Man

•‎11th (3.5) [-0%] = 844 <= Far From Home

•12th (2.5) [-33%] = 846.5 <= Post-Spider-Man

•13th (2) [-20%] = 848.5 <= The Lion King

•14th (1.5) [-25%] = 850

=> Final = $853M (2.40x multiplier), 859M with Labour Day Expansion

 

A lot of "if" here. But historical data proved that it could be done.

What historical data? We're in the summer, we have a big new release every weekend, that's way way too much for this late in its run. That number defies logic ignoring everything we've seen so far from Endgame.

 

For a second I thought we were done with this stuff, forcing the numbers because we want them to instead of actually reading them, but nope, turns out we're not.

 

Anyhow, aside from that (and this is aimed at everyone here) any hope for an international update this week, you know, before the weekend?

[nguyenkhoi282]

14 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

What historical data? We're in the summer, we have a big new release every weekend, that's way way too much for this late in its run. That number defies logic ignoring everything we've seen so far from Endgame.

 

For a second I thought we were done with this stuff, forcing the numbers because we want them to instead of actually reading them, but nope, turns out we're not.

 

Anyhow, aside from that (and this is aimed at everyone here) any hope for an international update this week, you know, before the weekend?

Cmon, i was never gonna show this, you asked for it. 

I think the number is too small now for any weekdays update. Probably be at 1.908-1.909B by Sunday.

[AlexMA]

9 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Cmon, i was never gonna show this, you asked for it. 

I think the number is too small now for any weekdays update. Probably be at 1.908-1.909B by Sunday.

Well it wasn't me but I understand where you're coming from. Still doesn't change the fact the numbers are way inflated for North America.

 

Your international number checks out, maybe drop the range by 1 million as last week was about as big as the weekend before, and before that no week had been bigger than the weekend before it. Also last week was a pretty good hold, so if it can reproduce this week what it did this past weekend, that would be pretty good. But if it does do 1.909 that would be impressive, not gonna lie. For now I'm staying more in the 1.907-1,908 range.

Edited June 4, 2019 by AlexMA

[nguyenkhoi282]

21 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

Well it wasn't me but I understand where you're coming from. Still doesn't change the fact the numbers are way inflated for North America.

 

Your international number checks out, maybe drop the range by 1 million as last week was about as big as the weekend before, and before that no week had been bigger than the weekend before it. Also last week was a pretty good hold, so if it can reproduce this week what it did this past weekend, that would be pretty good. But if it does do 1.909 that would be impressive, not gonna lie. For now I'm staying more in the 1.907-1,908 range.

One thing to keep in mind is that OS-China will start having better drops than before. One is because of summer. Second is because most of the gross is now carried by long lasting markets, others are gone.

[AlexMA]

4 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

One thing to keep in mind is that OS-China will start having better drops than before. One is because of summer. Second is because most of the gross is now carried by long lasting markets, others are gone.

Which is why I said 1.907-1.908, I'm expecting 9 million or so this week. That would be the first under 50% drop week to week for Endgame since the start.

[VanillaSkies]

14 hours ago, Juby said:

 

One more time - this domestic number is almost impossible at this point! $836-841M is where the movie is heading.

 

 

836 is a lowball. 
 

It'll be close to 820 million heading into this weekend. Give it a likely 4.5 - 5 million for the weekend and it'll be close to 825 million by Sunday. 

It's still got tons of playability to go. 

Weekdays are strengthening now that we are in June, it hasn't even hit dollar run theatres yet, we can expect a small drop on the weekend that TS4 open and then some good holds leading up to FFH.  Let's not forget that Captain Marvel basically defied gravity the weeks leading up to AEG and on that films opening week. Even if it doesn't perform as strongly with FFH, it's still going to get some effect.

 

Infinity War also played well into July. 
And this isn't even factoring in a probable expansion/re-release. 

The end number will be far closer to 850 million that it is to 836 million. 

[ZattMurdock]

10 hours ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

•‎6th
-weekend (8) [-52%] = 815.7
-‎weekdays (4) = 819.7

•‎7th 
-weekend (5.3) [-34%] = 825 <= Dark Phoenix
-‎weekdays (2.7) = 827.7

•‎8th 
-weekend (3.6) [-32%] = 831.3 <= Men in Black
-‎weekdays (2.1) = 833.4

•‎9th (4.1) [-29%] = 837.5 <= Toy Story 4

•‎10th (3) [-25%] = 840.5 <= Pre-Spider-Man

•‎11th (3.5) [-0%] = 844 <= Far From Home

•12th (2.5) [-33%] = 846.5 <= Post-Spider-Man

•13th (2) [-20%] = 848.5 <= The Lion King

•14th (1.5) [-25%] = 850

=> Final = $853M (2.40x multiplier), 859M with Labour Day Expansion

 

A lot of "if" here. But historical data proved that it could be done.

 

 

 

Thank you for the projections you make. I do think it’s still possible, but incredibly hard. Let’s see what happens.

 

[Barnack]

18 hours ago, Minnale101 said:

Wdym ? Avatar is their record. They bought fox 

I doubt they ever transfer record in their mind like that and I imagine what matter for the group of people currently in charge is what they did themselve has a group of people, not Disney (why would they particularly care about Disney at all ?)

 

Turner buying MGM didn't really gave them the all time biggest movie record in accomplishment.

Edited June 5, 2019 by Barnack