AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[terrestrial]

13 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said:

It's looking like Avatar is safe. There's no way this is making an extra 16 million anytime soon. 

1. even with the usually low-balled weekend estimates its ~ $15.5m

2. actuals after a long weekend might be interesting.

That counts in this case for OS too, as the per country still come together in a country where a lot of ppl are celebrating, take time, need to get over a hang-over instead of a fully occupied bureau.

3. even without the staggered OS release dates, there is, as always, no way we know anything for sure already/today.

E.g. weather, local events,... a lot can influence the BOs and as such skewer the usual calculation models. Also as always.

4. the staggered release with so many differences per country (a few nights only, a week or .... once a day or twice a day....) does not allow the use of any calculation model at all.

5. there are still cinemas / regions... not connected to the famous BO detail providers. Later screenings, festivals,... Also the one screen cinemas who often get a movie the first time weeks or even months after the release for the very first time, especially countryside

Hence why so often weeks or even months later the BOs get updated. See e.g. SK, here in Germany too, where you can still watch movies out of the e.g. '50 or last year or.... can be watched in a cinema.

 

E.g. in a big event cinema they show here a 1999 children movie again, also next week 1979's Apocalypse Now

 

 

Last screening I can access is for AEG in the same cinema at Tuesday (with the text added there might be additional dates added at Monday) with 1/5 of the seats already sold. Good for a movie already out that long.

 

One of the countryside cinemas I use has it daily twice till Wednesday (no summer holidays in my area yet, we get it as the last), our program changes every Thursday, if more dates get added I'll be able to see maybe Tuesday, but probably rather at Wednesday.

We had partly record breaking heat (here the cinemas are ~ empty if its hot), only this weekend it went down.

 

= how to calculate any outcome out of all that for sure?

 

 

Btw, generally speaking:

terms like fudge... gets used way too often here at BOT in my POV (outside of OWs varying strongly depending on the distributor, and a few 'let's reach e.g. $100m').

 

 

[ZattMurdock]

I don’t want to get too cocky, but anyone truly believing that the actuals won’t come considerably bigger are fooling themselves. It’s a matter of 15 days at most for Endgame to top the worldwide record.

 

Reading some people on /r/boxoffice claiming Endgame will be out of theaters in the domestic market after this week.

 

It’s insane the amount of mental gymnastics that these people will go to wish the record away of Avengers: Endgame. 

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

I don’t want to get too cocky, but anyone truly believing that the actuals won’t come considerably bigger are fooling themselves. It’s a matter of 15 days at most for Endgame to top the worldwide record.

 

Reading some people on /r/boxoffice claiming Endgame will be out of theaters in the domestic market after this week.

 

It’s insane the amount of mental gymnastics that these people will go to wish the record away of Avengers: Endgame. 

 

Lets record this for posterity and check back on July 21st, at the latest  

[terrestrial]

 

4 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

Okay, I just found this comment on Twitter and I think it makes sense. 

 

Last weekend was $2.6m, estimate was $2.3m. The rest of the week's figures took OS to $6.8m. The $1.3m in the tweet does not include this. Same as last week. Still those figures to come.

 

So, last weekend, Disney reported an estimate of $2.3M for the weekend then the actual up $3M. But it seemed that the actual for the weekend up $0.3M (to be come $2.6M). The rest part of that $3M ($2.7M) belonged to the weekdays actual update. So it meant Disney didn't have the actual for the weekdays already when it already finished the weekend. 

 

So, maybe this week it wil be the same case as last week. That $1.3M estimate for the weekend and $1.6M estimate for the whole week didn't have the actual for weekday yet.

 

exactly, that's part of what I meant see my previous post

 

Ppl forget its not all the same like in their region in every country or even only region.

Including having at other days public holidays too (and as such closed local bureaus), that I had forgotten to list.

During a record breaking OW is a higher possibility someone works at additional hours than late in a run, but clearly before reaching certain milestones.

Additional hours means additional costs, especially during a public holiday or even a Sunday where e.g. here the companies have to pay a lot of ~ surcharges to their employees.

 

[terrestrial]

10 minutes ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

Reading some people on /r/boxoffice claiming Endgame will be out of theaters in the domestic market after this week.

 

I mean Captain Marvel closed only at 4 July with still $4800 at that day / ~ $40000 in its last week.

It had a theatre count of 84 in its last week (= 17 weeks in release)

CM had its digital & disc release May 28 and June 11th

 

A:EG digital is only at July 30 and on Blu-Ray August 13, its actually I think only in its 11th week into release.

= why would anyone think it gets pulled that early?

Even without the ~ expansion that would be far too early

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, terrestrial said:

 

I mean Captain Marvel closed only at 4 July with still $4800 at that day / ~ $40000 in its last week.

It had a theatre count of 84 in its last week (= 17 weeks in release)

CM had its digital & disc release May 28 and June 11th

 

A:EG digital is only at July 30 and on Blu-Ray August 13, its actually I think only in its 11th week into release.

= why would anyone think it gets pulled that early?

Even without the ~ expansion that would be far too early

It’s crazy, it’s like they started following box office yesterday.

[Doctor Stark]

38 minutes ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

I don’t want to get too cocky, but anyone truly believing that the actuals won’t come considerably bigger are fooling themselves. It’s a matter of 15 days at most for Endgame to top the worldwide record.

 

Reading some people on /r/boxoffice claiming Endgame will be out of theaters in the domestic market after this week.

 

It’s insane the amount of mental gymnastics that these people will go to wish the record away of Avengers: Endgame. 

People on Reddit saying that are moron trolls that have infested that subreddit since it became clear Endgame would have trouble passing Avatar.

[Pure Spirit]

42 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

E.g. in a big event cinema they show here a 1999 children movie again, also next week 1979's Apocalypse Now

So you're saying all Avatar has to do is throw itself in a few of these events to keep Endgame at bay? 🤔

 

PAGING JAMES CAMERON (but seriously I want to see Avatar in theaters again, damnit Lightstorm, why can't you be a little bit more fan friendly like Marvel)

[Legion Again]

Marvel Hall H panel is July 20.

Avengers cast reassembling there.   

Endgame will be #1 in the world by July 20, whatever it takes 

[Pure Spirit]

56 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

1. even with the usually low-balled weekend estimates its ~ $15.5m

2. actuals after a long weekend might be interesting.

That counts in this case for OS too, as the per country still come together in a country where a lot of ppl are celebrating, take time, need to get over a hang-over instead of a fully occupied bureau.

3. even without the staggered OS release dates, there is, as always, no way we know anything for sure already/today.

E.g. weather, local events,... a lot can influence the BOs and as such skewer the usual calculation models. Also as always.

4. the staggered release with so many differences per country (a few nights only, a week or .... once a day or twice a day....) does not allow the use of any calculation model at all.

5. there are still cinemas / regions... not connected to the famous BO detail providers. Later screenings, festivals,... Also the one screen cinemas who often get a movie the first time weeks or even months after the release for the very first time, especially countryside

Hence why so often weeks or even months later the BOs get updated. See e.g. SK, here in Germany too, where you can still watch movies out of the e.g. '50 or last year or.... can be watched in a cinema.

 

E.g. in a big event cinema they show here a 1999 children movie again, also next week 1979's Apocalypse Now

 

 

Last screening I can access is for AEG in the same cinema at Tuesday (with the text added there might be additional dates added at Monday) with 1/5 of the seats already sold. Good for a movie already out that long.

 

One of the countryside cinemas I use has it daily twice till Wednesday (no summer holidays in my area yet, we get it as the last), our program changes every Thursday, if more dates get added I'll be able to see maybe Tuesday, but probably rather at Wednesday.

We had partly record breaking heat (here the cinemas are ~ empty if its hot), only this weekend it went down.

 

= how to calculate any outcome out of all that for sure?

 

 

Btw, generally speaking:

terms like fudge... gets used way too often here at BOT in my POV (outside of OWs varying strongly depending on the distributor, and a few 'let's reach e.g. $100m').

 

 

Damn if it ain't convenient that the re-release of Endgame is impossible to conventionally track.  

[terrestrial]

15 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

So you're saying all Avatar has to do is throw itself in a few of these events to keep Endgame at bay? 🤔

 

PAGING JAMES CAMERON (but seriously I want to see Avatar in theaters again, damnit Lightstorm, why can't you be a little bit more fan friendly like Marvel)

I spoke more about some people seem to forget ww BO details / background during a films normal run - and the remainder about a lot of movies earn after the official closing dates still, especially ww.

Especially cults, classics or typical festival films, e.g. in specialised cinemas too.

 

I know for sure Avatar was at certain dates in a cinema here and there too, I nearly went a few years back to see it at one of those dates but work called so I missed it. I think it was during the winter holidays then, a one screening only thing in a countryside cinema.

But those dates are bringing in only bits here and there, worthy an update a year or two I guess, its not organised like actually AEG, where weekly money comes in in more measure 'weekly-worthy' amounts

 

Avatar will see more serious (but not huge) additional $ before and around the release of Avatar 2 as double features or in preparation to Avatar 2 I guess

 

[terrestrial]

14 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Damn if it ain't convenient that the re-release of Endgame is impossible to conventionally track.  

I am following BO since many many years (since the '70), as said, fudging.... gets way too often written / assumed here and elsewhere.

 

I do not deem such hints funny, way too many inexperienced or biased or.... readers believe those kind of posts and spread it.

 

[terrestrial]

31 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Marvel Hall H panel is July 20.

Quote

Marvel Studios and Kevin Feige Join San Diego Comic-Con After Skipping Last Year The masters of the Marvel Cinematic Universe are expected to announce Phase Four plans for the first time.

...

 July 20th from 5:15 to 6:45 p.m. PT in Hall H. The listing’s brief description reads: “Marvel Studios president and producer Kevin Feige and surprise panelists provide an inside look at the ever-expanding Marvel Cinematic Universe.”

...

... Marvel only uses that room when they have something truly noteworthy to announce.

...

...prompting many to speculate whether he might share plans for Phase 4 at Comic-Con.

....

The first Phase Four movie is already set for May 1, 2020.

 

[nguyenkhoi282]

Honestly, i do think that Disney has some fudging to do with OS actuals these last two weeks. Domestically, they can't do much because industry trackers are there to verify those. Albeit, the movie will get there eventually, just that a little bit of accounting push will make it look less like a drag.

[Pure Spirit]

10 hours ago, terrestrial said:

I am following BO since many many years (since the '70), as said, fudging.... gets way too often written / assumed here and elsewhere.

 

I do not deem such hints funny, way too many inexperienced or biased or.... readers believe those kind of posts and spread it.

 

I've only been following since Titanic, and not seriously until TFA,. Is fudging that stigmatized? I figure if a company wants to buy tickets to their own movie that's their prerogative, it's a free country. And it's not like it's unearned, you have to get close enough that fudging makes any sort of financial sense. I wouldn't begrudge any movie that fudged past as long as there were no accounting shenanigans and the tickets were actually purchased at the box office.

 

Are there any movies you think were definitely fudged? You seem to clearly frown on fudging so I wonder what movie(s) in your opinion has earned that inglorious honor. I'm also curious what your definition of it is, because to me it's all pretty vague and more of a joke than anything.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Pure Spirit

[Doctor Stark]

6 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

I've only been following since Titanic, and not seriously until TFA,. Is fudging that stigmatized? I figure if a company wants to buy tickets to their own movie that's their prerogative, it's a free country. And it's not like it's unearned, you have to get close enough that fudging makes any sort of financial sense. I wouldn't begrudge any movie that fudged past as long as there were no accounting shenanigans and the tickets were actually purchased at the box office.

 

Are there any movies you think were definitely fudged? You seem to clearly frown on fudging so I wonder what movie(s) in your opinion has earned that inglorious honor. I'm also curious what your definition of it is, because to me it's all pretty vague and more of a joke than anything.

One movie I don’t understand a few people complaining about is Black Panther. Disney had to fudge maybe like $45k to get it to $700 million domestic. That is 0.00006% of the total gross. Who cares?

[Pure Spirit]

2 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Avatar will see more serious (but not huge) additional $ before and around the release of Avatar 2 as double features or in preparation to Avatar 2 I guess

Oh my god, if I have to wait for double-features in 20XX I'm going to lose it. I think it depends on how long Disney wants Endgame to keep the WW #1 record. Endgame taking #1 is probably good press for an Avatar re-release, it'll certainly bring in the clickbait headlines if nothing else. If China allows the re-release we could be looking at a 9 figure take.

[Doctor Stark]

So I think that this whole weeks overseas is estimated at $1.6 million which is obviously a lowball, how the hell does it make $1.3 million on the weekend and only $300k on the weekdays? Those weekdays are just off, and maybe the weekend is to. There has to be fudging of some sort going on, at least a little bit. Or they are just really underestimating for some reason, perhaps to set expectations low and blow them away when actuals release. Actuals increased by $3 million last weekend, I have no idea what they will increase by this weekend. The trend oddly seems to be the smaller the numbers the bigger the increase in actuals (the weekend before they increased by $3 million they increased by $1.1 million). Following this trend, I am going to say that the actuals increase to $5.6 million for the entire week, up $4 million. This brings the worldwide total to around $2.776 billion or $2.777 billion. We’ll know in less than twelve hours what the increase truly is. Maybe they won’t go up much at all, or maybe they will increase $5 million or more due to creative accounting over at Disney. It makes actuals fun to wait for at least.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Doctor Stark

[PKMLover]

9 minutes ago, Doctor Stark said:

So I think that this whole weeks overseas is estimated at $1.6 million which is obviously a lowball, how the hell does it make $1.3 million on the weekend and only $300k on the weekdays? Those weekdays are just off, and maybe the weekend is to. There has to be fudging of some sort going on, at least a little bit. Or they are just really underestimating for some reason, perhaps to set expectations low and blow them away when actuals release. Actuals increased by $3 million last weekend, I have no idea what they will increase by this weekend. The trend oddly seems to be the smaller the numbers the bigger the increase in actuals (the weekend before they increased by $3 million they increased by $1.1 million). Following this trend, I am going to say that the actuals increase to $5.6 million for the entire week, up $4 million. This brings the worldwide total to around $2.776 billion or $2.777 billion. We’ll know in less than twelve hours what the increase truly is. Maybe they won’t go up much at all, or maybe they will increase $5 million or more due to creative accounting over at Disney. It makes actuals fun to wait for at least.

Did the OS markets suddenly dissapeared during this week? 

[nguyenkhoi282]

Last weekdays OS was 4.2M into a 2.6M weekend, so the ratio is 161%. Since FFH hits this weekend, it's reasonable to believe the ratio increases, maybe to 180%. Assuming weekend actuals is 1.5M, weekdays should be 4.2M, or 5.6M full week for 1928.5M total.