AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, Doctor Stark said:

It actually would make sense that they would put aside some money for next weekend, their big re-release weekend with countries like Brazil. It would make getting huge number more realistic and not reek of fudging. Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but what if they are saving a lot of money this week, it gets a lot of money next week from all of the new countries, and that is when it passes Avatar? One big surge next weekend that gets it over the mark.

I definitely not see it haopening next weekend. Two weekend from now in the earliest, and that’s now unlikely since this weekend isn’t around $12m. It’s going down tho, so now we wait for domestic actuals.

[nguyenkhoi282]

7 minutes ago, Doctor Stark said:

It actually would make sense that they would put aside some money for next weekend, their big re-release weekend with countries like Brazil. It would make getting huge number more realistic and not reek of fudging. Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but what if they are saving a lot of money this week, it gets a lot of money next week from all of the new countries, and that is when it passes Avatar? One big surge next weekend that gets it over the mark.

Next weekend is too soon and too big of a surge tbh. At least on The Lion King weekend i think. Some domestic double features and OS help. Also, don't underestimate the final push from fans since they see the gap closing.

[terrestrial]

Still not signing on to the idea they hold back in a planed way, but if they do, the only reason I can imagine to do it is the Hall H thing at ComicCon with Feige at July 20 = Saturday.

 

[PKMLover]

The OS of the whole last week =1.6mn

The OS of the whole week before it =6.8mn (after up 3mn).

And after the adjustment, they somehow balanced out....

Is there anyone have a feeling that the actual of last week is higher than 1.6mn?

I mean (1.6+6.8)/2 = 4.2

 

Edited July 8, 2019 by PKMLover

[Doctor Stark]

Yeah next weekend would be too big, that would be the very best case scenario. I’d expect a big number like last weekend though, a surge of some type. Maybe two weeks from now as you guys said, a month at the latest I would think.

[john2000]

35 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Whatever the projection, the end figure will sure be above 2788.1m 

 

The intention of Disney to make this over Avatar is very clear now, especially considering they even let the unfinished CGI work to be on big screen! With now the whole world know that EG re-release a new footage to surpass AVatar, and robert DJ officially "confirm" it, there is no way they let this stop at 2782-2785.   

of course not, you are talking about a difference of 5-2 millions

[AndyChrono]

Just now, terrestrial said:

Still not signing on to the idea they hold back in a planed way, but if they do, the only reason I can imagine to do it is the Hall H thing at ComicCon with Feige at July 20 = Saturday.

 

Yeah it's actually shocking to me so many actually believe that without question. Whether you add the supposed "held back" gross now, or add it later, the final number ends up being the same anyway. 1 + X or X + 1 is the same thing after all so it makes no difference in the actual push for the record. My gut says that Occam's Razor probably applies here and EG probably just came in below estimates. It's not like it's the first time that has happened.

[PKMLover]

1 minute ago, AndyChrono said:

Yeah it's actually shocking to me so many actually believe that without question. Whether you add the supposed "held back" gross now, or add it later, the final number ends up being the same anyway. 1 + X or X + 1 is the same thing after all so it makes no difference in the actual push for the record. My gut says that Occam's Razor probably applies here and EG probably just came in below estimates. It's not like it's the first time that has happened.

What is that?

[Permanent Magnet]

I really don't understand all this freak out

This re-release is staggered, with next weekend  the one with many big countries getting it, so we will see increased OS next week.

 

speaking conservatively, It still has  4-5M domestic and another 6-7M OS , that is about 10-12M still in the tank, which will bring the total up to 2.785B, 3 Million only under the record, which of course will make disney do anything to get EG over (remember that is conservative so it could go higher)

[Doctor Stark]

Just now, PKMLover said:

What is that?

The simplest answer is often the correct one.

[terrestrial]

Just checked:

 

all cinemas I frequently use (excl the 2 that boycott Disney mostly) added today for the next weekend new screening times:

either for Friday to Sunday or Thursday to Sunday.

 

Nearly all of them are now in bigger rooms than in use till incl tomorrow.

 

The one offered time I do not understand is a screening in Munich at Thursday 10:00 before midday in a ~ 250 seats room.

We are still in school session, in my region sommer break starts at 29 July, so who they think will book seats for that .... ?????

 

Weather report for next weekend would be far better for a cinema visit here than e.g. a week back.

[PKMLover]

8 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Just checked:

 

all cinemas I frequently use (excl the 2 that boycott Disney mostly) added today for the next weekend new screening times:

either for Friday to Sunday or Thursday to Sunday.

 

Nearly all of them are now in bigger rooms than in use till incl tomorrow.

 

The one offered time I do not understand is a screening in Munich at Thursday 10:00 before midday in a ~ 250 seats room.

We are still in school session, in my region sommer break starts at 29 July, so who they think will book seats for that .... ?????

 

Weather report for next weekend would be far better for a cinema visit here than e.g. a week back.

You are in Germany huh?

[ZattMurdock]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1eEaG17pnLrg98zE84fWvvu_oVCucn0333xLm4QoxbEs/htmlview#

 

Going by @Charlie Jatinder‘s projections, I don’t see any reason why overseas would make as little as he thinks, even with these weak reported overseas numbers, especially because of the re-releases that are still ongoing and how strong they have been in places where that’s not usual, like Mexico and Italy.

 

I’m not sure on Endgame going as high as $857m dom withouta  Labor Day weekend expansion, neither I think like @nguyenkhoi282 when it comes to Avengers: Endgame hopping by the record. 

 

The PTA for Avengers: Endgame is considerably better than newer releases like JW3, so that is good for theater drops next Friday domestically, since it has become abudantly clear that Avengers: Endgame works as a Summer film and the demand for it stills there, even more so with Spider-Man: Far From Home around.

 

I’m gonna try to predict the next weekend Dom and OS numbers, even if I’d rather wait for the Dom actuals later today, so I might revise this through today and this week:

 

07/14: $851-852m Dom, $1927-1928B OS, $2.778-2.8B

07/20: $852-854m Dom, $1928-1930B OS, $2.8-2.84B

07/28: $853-855m Dom, $1929-1932B OS, $2.782-2.787B

 

If we don’t get better than expected numbers from either Domestic or Overseas in the upcoming weeks, I see it going down by the end of July at earliest. Despite what the OS numbers are telling us, I do think we might end up with a higher than $3.5m weekend next week, and unlike Charlie I expect Endgame to at very least get to $1931B OS by the end of its run.

 

$857 m (Charlie’s current projection) Dom, $1931B, totals $2.788B.

[Hemo memo]

I don’t want Scott (Forbes) to have the last laugh. He is probably writing a piece as we speak.

[Doctor Stark]

This would be dire if it wasn’t literally $15 million away from Avatar. Every $1 million from here is 6.7% of the gross needed to catch Avatar. Plus overseas is such a wild card and imo is almost guaranteed to increase substantially next weekend.

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, Hemo memo said:

I don’t want Scott (Forbes) to have the last laugh. He is probably writing a piece as we speak.

The record is going down, don’t worry. It’s a matter of when, not an if.

[Valonqar]

5 minutes ago, Hemo memo said:

I don’t want Scott (Forbes) to have the last laugh. He is probably writing a piece as we speak.

 

You will never wipe that off ha ha ha. Unlimited Power! 

[Sagemode87]

1 hour ago, Doctor Stark said:

Yeah next weekend would be too big, that would be the very best case scenario. I’d expect a big number like last weekend though, a surge of some type. Maybe two weeks from now as you guys said, a month at the latest I would think.

I think you guys are putting too much stock in the affect the re release will have in foreign countries than aren't China. Who knows though, stranger things have happened. 

[ZattMurdock]

 

 

It seems to be over the $3.1 estimates, we need to see how the weekdays behave Domestic now.

 

 

 

[Valonqar]

right now, EG is the only movie that went up with dom actuals!