AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[edroger3]

As At 04/30 + China 05/01

 

May 1 :  +/- 1,70B$

May 5 :  +/- 2,10B$

May 12: +/- 2,80B$ (Bye Bye Avatar)

 

[Birdo Mandingo]

1 hour ago, raulbalarezo said:

 

Just decided to compare to TFA for a few overseas markets. Just FYI if TFA had performed the same as Endgame is in China it would have been just 100-150m short of Avatar. So I think it actually makes sense to compare EG with TFA because it looks like were are going to get a 450m increase from China alone compared to FTA. So if we assume that EG falls 100m short in US of TFA that means we need to find about 200-250m dollars around the world to beat Avatar. There could be 3 other markets where EG does not quite reach TFA, UK, Germany and Japan, so I will add another 50m to make the goal 300m to find WW. I think EG gets close in those markets but does not pass TFA. 

 

India- TFA- 4.5m EG-36.3m  (I think we will find 70 million of that here... did not realize TFA did so bad in India)

Italy-  TFA-28m  EG-22.6m (I think we find at least 15m here)

South Korea- TFA-24m  EG-54m (I think we find 75m here)

 

So just 3 markets I already found 160m+

 

Mexico- TFA- 27m  EG-40m (I am gonna go with 50 million found here, I think it can do 77m in mexico)

Hong Kong- TFA- 11m EG-15.6m (lets go with 15 mil here)

Phillipenese- TFA- 8m  EG- 21.8- (at least 40 mil)

 

So in just 6 markets found 260m+

 

Malaysia- TFA-6.6m   EG-12.5m (at least 15m)

Brazil-  TFA-27.8m   EG- 34m (30m+)

Taiwan- TFA-6.4m  EG-15.5m (25m)

 

So in just these 9 markets we see an increase 340m+ and I feel like I am being pretty conservative with some of them.

 

I see it breaking even with TFA in Spain, France, Russia, Australia and a few others, in some of these markets it might barely miss TFA but in other EG might be alittle higher, but as a group I see it as a wash.

 

[catlover]

2 hours ago, raulbalarezo said:

 

That means Indonesia's Tuesday was $2.3? Bigger than Monday? I guess Wednesday being a public holiday probably helped it. Thinking it could pass $30m by the end of this week. Crazy.

[Nero]

33 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

Just decided to compare to TFA for a few overseas markets. Just FYI if TFA had performed the same as Endgame is in China it would have been just 100-150m short of Avatar. So I think it actually makes sense to compare EG with TFA because it looks like were are going to get a 450m increase from China alone compared to FTA. So if we assume that EG falls 100m short in US of TFA that means we need to find about 200-250m dollars around the world to beat Avatar. There could be 3 other markets where EG does not quite reach TFA, UK, Germany and Japan, so I will add another 50m to make the goal 300m to find WW. I think EG gets close in those markets but does not pass TFA. 

 

India- TFA- 4.5m EG-36.3m  (I think we will find 70 million of that here... did not realize TFA did so bad in India)

Italy-  TFA-28m  EG-22.6m (I think we find at least 15m here)

South Korea- TFA-24m  EG-54m (I think we find 75m here)

 

So just 3 markets I already found 160m+

 

Mexico- TFA- 27m  EG-40m (I am gonna go with 50 million found here, I think it can do 77m in mexico)

Hong Kong- TFA- 11m EG-15.6m (lets go with 15 mil here)

Phillipenese- TFA- 8m  EG- 21.8- (at least 40 mil)

 

So in just 6 markets found 260m+

 

Malaysia- TFA-6.6m   EG-12.5m (at least 15m)

Brazil-  TFA-27.8m   EG- 34m (30m+)

Taiwan- TFA-6.4m  EG-15.5m (25m)

 

So in just these 9 markets we see an increase 340m+ and I feel like I am being pretty conservative with some of them.

 

I see it breaking even with TFA in Spain, France, Russia, Australia and a few others, in some of these markets it might barely miss TFA but in other EG might be alittle higher, but as a group I see it as a wash.

 

So what total you are getting? 3B?

[Birdo Mandingo]

45 minutes ago, Nero said:

So what total you are getting? 3B?

If it can come close to matching TFA in Japan, UK, and Germany, can get to 600m in China and 850m in US then ya, 3 bil. If it falls just short on those area I see it ending up with 2.85-2.9

 

There are a ton of smaller markets I did not look at, like Indonesia for instance, it has made 20m there, but I could not find any numbers for TFA for it, if I assume TFA did there similar to the rest of the region that could be another 30 million gain. 

 

I am not on board with the 3.2 billion predictions, I don't think they are impossible, but it requires EG beating TFA in US which I don't think will happen, but it could. If we see a crazy 180m 2nd weekend in the US I will start considering it. 

[Claudio]

11 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

If it can come close to matching TFA in Japan, UK, and Germany, can get to 600m in China and 850m in US then ya, 3 bil. If it falls just short on those area I see it ending up with 2.85-2.9

 

There are a ton of smaller markets I did not look at, like Indonesia for instance, it has made 20m there, but I could not find any numbers for TFA for it, if I assume TFA did there similar to the rest of the region that could be another 30 million gain. 

 

I am not on board with the 3.2 billion predictions, I don't think they are impossible, but it requires EG beating TFA in US which I don't think will happen, but it could. If we see a crazy 180m 2nd weekend in the US I will start considering it. 

TFA has $8.9M in Indonesia.

[Birdo Mandingo]

1 minute ago, Claudio said:

TFA has $8.9M in Indonesia.

So ya probably about a 30 million gain then.

[pepsa]

23 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

If it can come close to matching TFA in Japan, UK, and Germany, can get to 600m in China and 850m in US then ya, 3 bil. If it falls just short on those area I see it ending up with 2.85-2.9

 

There are a ton of smaller markets I did not look at, like Indonesia for instance, it has made 20m there, but I could not find any numbers for TFA for it, if I assume TFA did there similar to the rest of the region that could be another 30 million gain. 

 

I am not on board with the 3.2 billion predictions, I don't think they are impossible, but it requires EG beating TFA in US which I don't think will happen, but it could. If we see a crazy 180m 2nd weekend in the US I will start considering it. 

Tbh 900m DOM is looking likely and $650m China is happening. Europe will fall short, Russia will easliy beat TFA rest of Europe won't. LA is an easy win for EG as is Asia and Africa. 

Oceania is a place where TFA could win as well. (Likely)

[Birdo Mandingo]

11 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Tbh 900m DOM is looking likely and $650m China is happening. Europe will fall short, Russia will easliy beat TFA rest of Europe won't. LA is an easy win for EG as is Asia and Africa. 

Oceania is a place where TFA could win as well. (Likely)

Europe as a whole might break even with TFA. France, UK, Germany are only 3 I don't see it matching TFA, but it will likely out preform TFA in the rest of Europe. Italy is a lock Spain looks good. Like you said Russia. And I think EG will crush TFA in the old Iron curtain countries (TFA preformed poorly there because most of those countries did not have the nostalgia factor the west did)

 

I think it is possible, EG will outpace TFA in Europe as a whole, key factor being how much EG falls short in those 3 markets. 

[VanillaSkies]

50 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Tbh 900m DOM is looking likely and $650m China is happening. Europe will fall short, Russia will easliy beat TFA rest of Europe won't. LA is an easy win for EG as is Asia and Africa. 

Oceania is a place where TFA could win as well. (Likely)

At this point, we can't even rule out $700m China. It just keeps surprising in that market every day!

[pepsa]

39 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

Europe as a whole might break even with TFA. France, UK, Germany are only 3 I don't see it matching TFA, but it will likely out preform TFA in the rest of Europe. Italy is a lock Spain looks good. Like you said Russia. And I think EG will crush TFA in the old Iron curtain countries (TFA preformed poorly there because most of those countries did not have the nostalgia factor the west did)

 

I think it is possible, EG will outpace TFA in Europe as a whole, key factor being how much EG falls short in those 3 markets. 

Well I would say these won't match TFA in europe.

Uk

Germany

France

Romania (OD under TFA I though, but the market is very small so doesn't mather that much)

Belgium (also a small market)

Denmark (another small market)

Sweden

 

 

So now countries where I think it will be ahead I won't list countries that I think will end up the same. 

 

Russia

Italy

Portugal (small, Romania small)

And yeah maybe some more eastern Europe countries, the problem here is those countries are still small, most are smaller than Belgium in BO (they are a lot faster growing but atm still pretty small) so they won't add to much. So europe will be down $40m or so.

Everywhere else in the world - Oceania it will be up like way up, like not in the same league up 😛 

[oMeriMombatti]

Historic Wednesday For Avengers - Endgame

 

Avengers Endgame had a historic Wednesday with collections likely to go back towards that 29-30 crore nett mark which would be the highest ever Wednesday in history (this is when the Wednesday is not a first day). The film was helped by the holiday of May Day which is a partial holiday.

 

 

The total collections of the film are now around 245 crore nett meaning it has done more business than any Hindi film this year in just six days. The week is looking at a 265 crore nett total.

 

 

The highest Wednesday in history is Sultan at 36 crore nett plus and Ek Tha Tiger at 30 crore nett plus but both these films were on day one and it could be the final numbers of Avengers - Endgame beats Ek Tha Tiger.

 

https://boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=4969

 

Nothing stops this train, will become only the 2nd movie after Baahubali : 2 to have 10 straight days with 20cr+ collections (nett not gross). I didn't think of these collections even in my most optimistic scenario. Overall final gross collections of the movie will be $70M+ atleast.

[Lordmandeep]

I can say from my relatives in India, Endgame has become a huge craze in India. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

Just decided to compare to TFA for a few overseas markets. Just FYI if TFA had performed the same as Endgame is in China it would have been just 100-150m short of Avatar. So I think it actually makes sense to compare EG with TFA because it looks like were are going to get a 450m increase from China alone compared to FTA. So if we assume that EG falls 100m short in US of TFA that means we need to find about 200-250m dollars around the world to beat Avatar. There could be 3 other markets where EG does not quite reach TFA, UK, Germany and Japan, so I will add another 50m to make the goal 300m to find WW. I think EG gets close in those markets but does not pass TFA. 

 

India- TFA- 4.5m EG-36.3m  (I think we will find 70 million of that here... did not realize TFA did so bad in India)

Italy-  TFA-28m  EG-22.6m (I think we find at least 15m here)

South Korea- TFA-24m  EG-54m (I think we find 75m here)

 

So just 3 markets I already found 160m+

 

Mexico- TFA- 27m  EG-40m (I am gonna go with 50 million found here, I think it can do 77m in mexico)

Hong Kong- TFA- 11m EG-15.6m (lets go with 15 mil here)

Phillipenese- TFA- 8m  EG- 21.8- (at least 40 mil)

 

So in just 6 markets found 260m+

 

Malaysia- TFA-6.6m   EG-12.5m (at least 15m)

Brazil-  TFA-27.8m   EG- 34m (30m+)

Taiwan- TFA-6.4m  EG-15.5m (25m)

 

So in just these 9 markets we see an increase 340m+ and I feel like I am being pretty conservative with some of them.

 

I see it breaking even with TFA in Spain, France, Russia, Australia and a few others, in some of these markets it might barely miss TFA but in other EG might be alittle higher, but as a group I see it as a wash.

 

I think it'll lose a lot less than 100 million from the U.S., but then again I feel like it'll lose more than 50 million from TFA in UK, Germany, Japan, France so so in the end your analysis of the other markets works out

[Birdo Mandingo]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I think it'll lose a lot less than 100 million from the U.S., but then again I feel like it'll lose more than 50 million from TFA in UK, Germany, Japan, France so so in the end your analysis of the other markets works out 

I think 50 to 60 million for UK, Japan, and Germany. 20 in germany 10 in Japan, 20 in Uk.

 

I think France will be really close, close enough I think slight gains in Russia will counterbalance it. Which is why I grouped france separate. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Birdo Mandingo said:

I think 50 to 60 million for UK, Japan, and Germany. 20 in germany 10 in Japan, 20 in Uk.

 

I think France will be really close, close enough I think slight gains in Russia will counterbalance it. Which is why I grouped france separate. 

10 in Japan? TFA made nearly 100 million there and Endgame will probably only be 50 million-ish. I'd say it loses more like 100 million from those three

[Birdo Mandingo]

53 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Well I would say these won't match TFA in europe.

Uk

Germany

France

Romania (OD under TFA I though, but the market is very small so doesn't mather that much)

Belgium (also a small market)

Denmark (another small market) 

Sweden

 

 

So now countries where I think it will be ahead I won't list countries that I think will end up the same. 

 

Russia

Italy

Portugal (small, Romania small)

And yeah maybe some more eastern Europe countries, the problem here is those countries are still small, most are smaller than Belgium in BO (they are a lot faster growing but atm still pretty small) so they won't add to much. So europe will be down $40m or so.

Everywhere else in the world - Oceania it will be up like way up, like not in the same league up 😛 

Ya, so basically the Philippines alone would offset drops in Europe or just about.  

[Birdo Mandingo]

Just now, Menor said:

10 in Japan? TFA made nearly 100 million there and Endgame will probably only be 50 million-ish. I'd say it loses more like 100 million from those three

Japanese plays longs, I would say it is probably the least front loaded market it in the world, or at the least of the major markets it is the least front loaded. 

 

Reception seems good 80 to 90 is possible. But if it not as well received as I think it is, then ya I see 60 mil is the floor. 

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

I think 50 to 60 million for UK, Japan, and Germany. 20 in germany 10 in Japan, 20 in Uk.

 

I think France will be really close, close enough I think slight gains in Russia will counterbalance it. Which is why I grouped france separate. 

 

Ehh I don't think those top 3 will be nearly as close as you call it.

 

TFA made $163m in the UK. Endgame might make it to $130m. That's $33m.

In Germany, we might get $60-$70m for Endgame. TFA did $111m. That's at least $40m.
In Japan, Endgame could be looking at $50m. Max of $60m. TFA did $97m. That's another $37m at least

Those three combined will be at least $100m in favor over TFA. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Birdo Mandingo said:

Japanese plays longs, I would say it is probably the least front loaded market it in the world, or at the least of the major markets it is the least front loaded. 

 

Reception seems good 80 to 90 is possible. But if it not as well received as I think it is, then ya I see 60 mil is the floor. 

Hmm I still think those three markets will have bigger losses, and France won't be as close as you think. But China will also have a bigger difference than the 450 million you put, and the U.S. probably won't lose 100 million. So it should all balance out in the end.