AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, BlueCore said:

Absolutely, honestly I would be surprised if it didn't.

so 2.2-2.3 as of sunday ?

[Fake]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

if true that would be a good drop ? 

Yes..... in line with IW drop.

[BlueCore]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so 2.2-2.3 as of sunday ?

I'll be off soon but I did want to get back quickly as I misjudged one of the OS market's numbers, it's definitely a possibility to hit 1.8 by end of Thursday but it's not certain. If not though it should be relatively close.

 

$2.2-2.3bn WW by Sunday looks likely!

Edited May 2, 2019 by BlueCore

[Fake]

16 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so it could hit 1.8 billion by thursday ?

It will fall just short, something lik1 1.77-1.775B.

 

After Sunday, it will be close to 2.2B.

[terrestrial]

22 minutes ago, john2000 said:

if true that would be a good drop ? 

Yes, as first weekend had a lot of longer weekends per country than usual

= not only midnight previews, in some cases an additional day also.

Those will not be part of the 2nd weekend, hence why the drop might look like it is high without being high, even good.

 

Lessening that impact will be the ~ week long OW for Russia, in this especial case only a bit, as the numbers in complete are so high/extreme

[Fake]

Projecting further run:

 

WKND/WEEK - DOM - CHN - OS-C = WW

 

Weekend 1: 357 - 330.5 - 536 - 1223.5

 

Weekday 1: 115 - 190 - 205

 

Weekend 2: 153 - 80 - 235 = 468

(WW Cume: 625+600+975 = 2200)

 

Weekday 2: 40 - 25 - 85

 

Weekend 3: 70 - 20 - 90 = 180

(WW Cume: 735+645+1150 = 2530)

 

Weekday 3:  20 - 10 - 30

 

Weekend 4: 40 - 10 - 45 = 95

(WW Cume: 795+665+1225 = 2685)

 

Rest of run: 105 - 10 - 100 = 215

 

WW Final: 900+675+1325 = 2900

Edited May 2, 2019 by Fake

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

Sure, right now it is at $499.5m (3.362b Yuan), so I guess it has a chance to reach $500m...

625 is possible

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

625 is possible

... 650 is possible at this point ,i dont believe that it will add only 25 mill for the rest of its run as by sunday it will be close if not pass 600 mill

Edited May 2, 2019 by john2000

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

My 2nd weekend (FSS) projection for Endgame

 

Domestic: $172mn ($647mn)

Overseas: $205mn ($995mn)

China: $90mn ($605mn)

 

Worldwide: $467mn ($2247mn)

http://bit.ly/EGOverseas

 

Also in "EG Projection" sheet, you can check my lifetime projection for Endgame.

 

Note: The second weekend that Disney will report, will include Russia Mon-Sun and countries with weekend starting from Wednesday or Thursday, like France, Australia, Gulf, etc. So Disney number may cross $500mn.

I think that has a chance to be accurate because to be frank I don't see your estimates as extreme and you have done a damn good job forecasting it thus far.

 

I think a good range is 2.175 b to 2.325B by the end of the second weekend. High likelihood it falls in-between 2.2 and 2.275b but the larger range provides a huge cushion. 

 

If your 2.247 happens, Avatar is 100% dead.

Edited May 2, 2019 by cdsacken

[cdsacken]

12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

... 650 is possible at this point ,i dont believe that it will add only 25 mill for the rest of its run as by sunday it will be close if not pass 600 mill

Absolutely it is you're right. 625 is a default. It isn't even a stretch really.

Edited May 2, 2019 by cdsacken

[peludo]

4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

625 is possible

I just was kidding. He was doubting (trolling?) about $500m and that amount had already been done.

 

Being serious:

$625m means 4.2b Yuan, what seems possible, even probable.

$650m would be 4.375b Yuan. It could be possible, but I prefer to see how it holds after these holidays during normal days and upcoming competition.

[cdsacken]

4 minutes ago, peludo said:

I just was kidding. He was doubting (trolling?) about $500m and that amount had already been done.

 

Being serious:

$625m means 4.2b Yuan, what seems possible, even probable.

$650m would be 4.375b Yuan. It could be possible, but I prefer to see how it holds after these holidays during normal days and upcoming competition.

Agreed I know just added on to what you are saying. He is definitely being a troll. Hopefully the weekend ends up at 2.2 billion so he can end his trolling bit. It's sad and outside of reality. 

[Nero]

23 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Agreed I know just added on to what you are saying. He is definitely being a troll. Hopefully the weekend ends up at 2.2 billion so he can end his trolling bit. It's sad and outside of reality. 

He is a fanboy of Avatar... So

[Sheldon Cr]

4 hours ago, XO21 said:

1250m lol. It’s at 1045m as yesterday...

Lol I'm talking over its 1plus week run silly pants. Still very unlikely to hit Avatar. Domestic 770-830 plus 1.7 b os. The funny thing is took 80-90% increase in os markets and 22 films to be relevant. So give Avtr its due. 2020 Avtr 2 will likely get over 3b os alone in todays market. So still avatar world is very safe. We will see if Eg can make that 2billy mark os👍

Edited May 2, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol I'm talking over its 1plus week run silly pants. Still very unlikely to hit Avatar. Domestic 770-830 plus 1.7 b os. The funny thing is took 80-90% increase in os markets and 22 films to be relevant. So give Avtr its due. 2020 Avtr 2 will likely get over 3b os alone in todays market. So still avatar world is very safe. We will see if Eg can make that 2billy mark os👍

aha by bye

[GOXOG]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

aha by bye

should ignored him,dont engage,it will derail thread

[cdsacken]

Yeah he's delusional. 850 Dom is worst scare scenario if this weekend is decent. Most likely it's going to be way over decent.

[RealLyre]

over 2B by Sunday... 

 

 

Endgame is really about to dethrone Avatar WW 

[GOXOG]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

over 2B by Sunday... 

 

 

Endgame is really about to dethrone Avatar WW 

hope so,Avatar owns the crown for quite long

[peludo]

38 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Lol I'm talking over its 1plus week run silly pants. Still very unlikely to hit Avatar. Domestic 770-830 plus 1.7 b os. The funny thing is took 80-90% increase in os markets and 22 films to be relevant. So give Avtr its due. 2020 Avtr 2 will likely get over 3b os alone in todays market. So still avatar world is very safe. We will see if Eg can make that 2billy mark os👍

Good luck with that...

EG at 775 million after 3rd weekend, when it will have done 85-90 million. You can sum up another 170-180 million, reaching 950.

 

The only thing I can agree with you is about the $2b OS. That is what could be hardest to achieve, although I would not rule it out yet.