AVENGERS ENDGAME | 1939.4 M overseas ● 2797.8 M worldwide

[Moses]

12 minutes ago, setna said:

 

 

All ths story about beating or not beating Avatar is resumed in one Word, China.

Avatar made 200 million 10 years ago in a very Little market compared with today.

Now, EG Will make more tan 600 million, this is a really huge 400+ million difference.

If EG beats  Avatar with less than these 400 million difference, the thing is obvious, not counting 10 years of inflation.

 

Of course EG has an amazing run, but i think being realistic can´t eclipse Avatar unless it makes 3,2 b, that i don´t see it.

 

Avatar did 100+ million in 10 countries!!!!, this is something astonishing, that EG, don´t think Will do...

With 2009 er endgame would have done 180 millions in brazil and 150 im uk

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, setna said:

 

 

All ths story about beating or not beating Avatar is resumed in one Word, China.

Avatar made 200 million 10 years ago in a very Little market compared with today.

Now, EG Will make more tan 600 million, this is a really huge 400+ million difference.

If EG beats  Avatar with less than these 400 million difference, the thing is obvious, not counting 10 years of inflation.

 

Of course EG has an amazing run, but i think being realistic can´t eclipse Avatar unless it makes 3,2 b, that i don´t see it.

 

Avatar did 100+ million in 10 countries!!!!, this is something astonishing, that EG, don´t think Will do...

Blah blah market growth. Then I say “blah blah exchange rates.” Then someone else says “blah blah inflation.”     

 

On some level “fairly” comparing movies that are too far apart is just impossible. If (when) Endgame wins in $, it will have won. People can go in circles forever about adjusting for this, that and the other thing and you’ll never get anywhere definitive because there’s no where definitive to go.

[ZeeSoh]

10 minutes ago, setna said:

 

 

All ths story about beating or not beating Avatar is resumed in one Word, China.

Avatar made 200 million 10 years ago in a very Little market compared with today.

Now, EG Will make more tan 600 million, this is a really huge 400+ million difference.

If EG beats  Avatar with less than these 400 million difference, the thing is obvious, not counting 10 years of inflation.

 

Of course EG has an amazing run, but i think being realistic can´t eclipse Avatar unless it makes 3,2 b, that i don´t see it.

 

Avatar did 100+ million in 10 countries!!!!, this is something astonishing, that EG, don´t think Will do...

If you wanna adjust using inflation then GWTW would be the highest grossing ever. 

 

If you wanna use market growth and inflation then you cannot ignore ER rates which were a lot more favourable to Avatar. I read somewhere on this forum that with today’s ER Avatar would have only grossed something like 2.3-2.4b. You cannot also ignore the growth of streaming services. 

 

In other words you can’t have your cake and eat it too. 

 

Anyways this debate has been done to death on this forum and I have no intention to partake in it nor do I intend to bring the Avatards in this thread who do nothing but derail things. 

 

If Endgame overtakes Avatar then it overtakes Avatar. End of discussion. You can continue holding it as #1 in your heart if you want. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[Joyous Legion]

1 minute ago, Moses said:

With 2009 er endgame would have done 180 millions in brazil and 150 im uk

See? I’m a prophet 😛 

[Moses]

With 2009 ER we would have

China

Uk

Korea

Mexico

Brazil

Above 100 million dollars

[Quigley]

27 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Blah blah market growth. Then I say “blah blah exchange rates.” Then someone else says “blah blah inflation.”     

 

On some level “fairly” comparing movies that are too far apart is just impossible. If (when) Endgame wins in $, it will have won. People can go in circles forever about adjusting for this, that and the other thing and you’ll never get anywhere definitive because there’s no where definitive to go.

One way to settle all this would be admission numbers. Even then though, one could argue that what matters is admissions as a percentage of world population (at the time). It's impossible to find a single measure that would objectively determine a movie's success. But since admissions eliminate the issue of exchange rates, it seems like a better compromise than dollars.

Edited May 4, 2019 by Quigley

[stephanos13]

8 minutes ago, Quigley said:

One way to settle all this would be admission numbers. Even then though, one could argue that what matters is admissions as a percentage of world population (at the time). It's impossible to find a single measure that would objectively determine a movie's success. But since admissions eliminate the issue of exchange rates, it seems like a better compromise than dollars.

That would be the best way to settle it.

[Joyous Legion]

18 minutes ago, Quigley said:

One way to settle all this would be admission numbers. Even then though, one could argue that what matters is admissions as a percentage of world population (at the time). It's impossible to find a single measure that would objectively determine a movie's success. But since admissions eliminate the issue of exchange rates, it seems like a better compromise than dollars.

Admissions is moving in the right direction imo, but while it sort of dodges inflation and ERs it’s still very auspectible to market growth. Thus, as you indicate, maybe potential admissions as % of pop, or as % of pop with reasonable access to cinemas. But I think you’d find the latter two trend downward pretty steadily from the “can only see a movie in theaters” ERs to the “home video era” to the “streaming and peak TV” era.      

 

The beat ways to simultaneously try to account for all of those sorts of factors is to compare to surrounding movies, e.g. “admissions as a % of overall movie admissions for a 5-year window centered on the movie in question.” Although a hard N-year window is choppy, so maybe you instead want to smooth things out by taking an average of surrounding years with weight decreasing with distance.      

 

I don’t personally think you’re ever going to get a more meaningful result than “Endgame was by far the biggest movie of the 2010s era” “Avatar was by far the biggest movie of the 2000s era” Titanic was by far the biggest movie of the 1990s era” etc. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[keysersoze123]

2009 some of the OS markets were not so big. i doubt we would have seen this big openings. Some of the markets have expanded significantly adding so many multiplexes. But in late 2009 markets like Italy/Spain were very strong. Avatar grossed 100m in those markets!!! Also Russian ER was great and Avatar grossed crazy numbers. UK definitely would be way bigger as would france/Germany. Dont see India making this big a number in 2009 when biggest grosser was way smaller( @Fake or @Charlie Jatinder to confirm). China definitely wont be anywhere close considering record before Avatar was TF2 or 2012 with just 65m. But Avengers would benefit from much bigger 3d share.

 

But better to not compare movies across different years. Both Avatar and End Game have had incredible runs. Now let us see where Avatar 2 goes?

[salvador-232]

The thing with market growth is that no one assures you that it will benefit the movie you want. Otherwise, Dory should have done like 200m in China or Star Wars like 20m in Chile (In fact, Star Wars is now smaller than the prequels in admissions despite the market being 2,7 times bigger!!!) 

[Nakamura]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

Domestic :-

 

Endgame multi till Friday - 1.44

Infinity War multi till Friday - 1.435

 

I was surprised to see Endgame's multi till now is actually slightly higher than Infinity War. It should give a pause to those freaking out over Friday's jump because Endgame more than makes up for it thanks to its stronger weekdays. 

 

Endgame's total till Sunday using same Sat/Sun drops as IW - 623.3

Endgame's total till Sunday using IW Friday to Sun multi - 625

Endgame's total till Sunday using IW total multi till Sun - 629

Endgame's total till Sunday with same IW 2nd weekend drop - 632

 

Even using the 625m number till Sunday, Endgame's multi will still be almost the same as IW. Now IW final domestic multi was 2.634. The same will get Endgame to 940.67 which is above TFA. However with earlier competition and more frontloadedness I doubt Endgame will have the same multi. 

 

But even if Endgame makes the same amount as Endgame going forward (225.7m) it will still get to 850m. That is where i think it will finish at. Unfortunately won't overtake TFA.

 

Overseas :-

 

Endgame OS-China-Russia multi till Friday - 1.539

Infinity War OS-Russia multi till Friday - 1.557

 

Endgame's multi has been slightly worse than Infinity War's so far. Even it's Thursday to Friday jump is weaker than Infinity War's (without counting China and Russia for both).

 

Infinity War 1st weekend FSS = 287

Endgame 1st weekend FSS = 387.5

 

Infinity War's 2nd weekend FSS = 147 (-49%)

Endgame's 2nd weekend FSS with same drop = 193

Endgame's total OS with above number (+33 estimate for Russia whole week) = 997

 

Infinity War's 2nd weekend - 145.6 (-62%)

Endgame's 2nd weekend with same drop = 203.7

Endgame's total OS with above number (+33 estimate for Russia whole week) = 1007

 

Note - all above numbers are without China and Russia for both IW and Endgame (unless I made a mistake)

 

Total - 

 

625 Dom + 575 China + 1000 OS = 2200

This is assuming Endgame follows Infinity War overseas and domestically. While domestically is not an issue, Endgame is more frontloaded compared to Infinity War overseas till now. It is likely to drop worse over the weekend. So overall I think it may miss 2.2b by Sunday. 

 

Last Sunday I thought it would get to 2.175b by Sunday which is where I still think it will land

Do you think EG's OS - China can finish at around $1.35B at the end of its run? Assuming it is $1.0B at the end of this week.

[ZeeSoh]

36 minutes ago, Quigley said:

One way to settle all this would be admission numbers. Even then though, one could argue that what matters is admissions as a percentage of world population (at the time). It's impossible to find a single measure that would objectively determine a movie's success. But since admissions eliminate the issue of exchange rates, it seems like a better compromise than dollars.

 

25 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

That would be the best way to settle it.

Admissions would be a somewhat better way to judge than ER or Inflation but that too is not perfect. It has a lot of problems. 

 

Take GWTW for example. According to BOM it sold upwards of 200 million tickets domestically. Would it have sold as many if it were released today? Heck no. It will be no where close. 

 

Today we have multiple avenues where people can get entertainment. Cable, streaming, video games, mobile phones, piracy, internet, etc. None of these things were present in those days. You couldnt even wait for video on demand or blu ray to come out. Your only entertainment option was going to see the movie (and sports). So people did that again and again. I am not sure if tickets were more affordable back then taking into account per capita income but if it was then that is another factor. 

 

We have seen admission numbers go down year after year on average due to these things. Even 10 years ago some of these things were not as prevalent as they are now like streaming services, mobile phones, etc. Today we have a dearth of really really good options for movies and shows on streaming services. 

 

At the end of day there is not a single perfect option to compare movies from different years. There are way too many variables. 

 

As for me I would love it if Endgame outgrosses Avatar but even if it doesnt its not something to be sad about. The movie has already exceeded pretty much all expectations. To get an idea of what people were expecting from this movie just read the beginning of this thread or the main Endgame thread or the many clubs created before presales started. One will get an idea that this movie will already have broken most everyone’s expectations by day 12 itself. 

 

I find all this Avatar talk and people proclaiming Avatar is done for or 3 billion talk starting from day 1 itself premature and irritating. As if its achievements are not great if it does not cross it. Which is why I have staved off such proclamations till now. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, Nakamura said:

Do you think EG's OS - China can finish at around $1.35B at the end of its run? Assuming it is $1.0B at the end of this week.

IF Endgame does 200m OS this weekend then IW’s multi going forward will take it to 1.36b OS. But that depends on it hitting 200m this weekend which is unknown and something I cannot project at this moment. 

 

But I have said that it is unlikely Endgame will have the same multi going forward as IW as it has already shown signs of frontloading this past week. So no I dont think it will hit 1.35b (unless it comes over 200m this weekend in which case it had a chance). 

[keysersoze123]

@ZeeSoh

you are talking OS-C right? So its going to be photo finish for Avatar OS? Avatar WW is toast.

[ZeeSoh]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

@ZeeSoh

you are talking OS-C right? So its going to be photo finish for Avatar OS? Avatar WW is toast.

Yes in my above post and the ones before I am talking about OS-China. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[keysersoze123]

I think Endgame legs will stabilize after initial frontloading bcos its OW was ridiculous. But once it hit sane levels it will have a good run. so late run domestic/OS should be good. So it could take until well into summer for us to know if some benchmarks(TFA Dom or 1.0A) will be breached.

[Fake]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I think Endgame legs will stabilize after initial frontloading bcos its OW was ridiculous. But once it hit sane levels it will have a good run. so late run domestic/OS should be good. So it could take until well into summer for us to know if some benchmarks(TFA Dom or 1.0A) will be breached.

TFA DOM looks pretty difficult as of now. EG Fri was 29.2% higher than IW, and if it can maintain the same lead throughout the rest if its run (which I doubt), it will finish with 914M. 900M is a more realistic target.

 

Avatar WW is going down for sure, unless it crashes spectacularly.

 

Next weekend drop is the key.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Fake said:

TFA DOM looks pretty difficult as of now. EG Fri was 29.2% higher than IW, and if it can maintain the same lead throughout the rest if its run (which I doubt), it will finish with 914M. 900M is a more realistic target.

 

Avatar WW is going down for sure, unless it crashes spectacularly.

 

Next weekend drop is the key.

I was talking about Avatar OS. Avatar WW is toast in 2-3 weeks or so.

[Nakamura]

7 minutes ago, Fake said:

TFA DOM looks pretty difficult as of now. EG Fri was 29.2% higher than IW, and if it can maintain the same lead throughout the rest if its run (which I doubt), it will finish with 914M. 900M is a more realistic target.

 

Avatar WW is going down for sure, unless it crashes spectacularly.

 

Next weekend drop is the key.

It depends quite much on os-china

Assume that china =600

Dom = 880

Os-china needs to be $1.320B, 33% higher than that of IW (993)

 

Edited May 5, 2019 by Nakamura

[MattW]

My prediction for weeks to come:

	WW Cume	Worldwide	Dom Cume	Domestic	OS Cume	Overseas	OS-Ch Cume	OS-Ch	China Cume	China
Opening	1223.6	1223.6	357.1	357.1	866.5	866.5	535.2	535.2	331.3	331.3
Week 2 (5/5)	2158.5	934.9	613.5	256.4	1545	678.5	966.8	431.6	578.2	246.9
Week 3 (5/12)	2484.9	318.4	730.5	117	1754.4	209.4	1145	178.2	609.4	31.2
Week 4 (5/19)	2626	149.1	789	58.5	1837	82.6	1220	75	617	7.6
Week 5 (5/26)	2700	74	820	31	1880	43	1260	40	620	3
Week 6 (6/2)	2737	37	840	20	1897	17	1277	17
Week 7 (6/9)	2757	20	852	12	1905	8	1285	8
Week 8 (6/16)	2769	12	860	8	1909	4	1289	4
Week 9 (6/23)	2776	7	865	5	1911	2	1291	2
Week 10 (6/30)	2780	4	868	3	1912	1	1292	1
Week 11 (7/7)	2782	2	870	2
Totals	2790		875		1915		1295		620

 

 

IW's overseas-less-China:

	Cume	OS-Ch          weekly
Opening	382.823	382.823
Week 1	714.603	331.78
Week 2	859.001	144.4
Week 3	920.13	61.13
Week 4	953.105	33.105
Week 5	966.925	13.82