BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[L Silverman]

1 minute ago, Chewy said:

 

Nutcracker is coming so it'll be 3 bombs

 

Disney's "everything's a tentpole!" release strategy from now means it's entirely feast or famine, which at least makes for exciting BO watching

Well, if they finally get around to buying Fox, that'll be what they're for, besides X-Men and FF of course.  Mid-range Oscar fare movies.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

People still living in that fantasy world where Solo would have made a billion in December. Disney is so successful that people just can't handle them releasing 2 bombs this year.  A Wrinkle in Time would have made a billion too if people weren't so racist according to these people. [ ????] Black Panther doesn't exist.  You were wrong about Star Wars always being a sure thing. A lot of people thought a film about a young Han Solo was a lousy idea no matter what time of year it was released in. 

Yeah, no one said that but go ahead and make up your own narrative to rail against along with the other bullshit you're dragging into this.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, L Silverman said:

Well, if they finally get around to buying Fox, that'll be what they're for, besides X-Men and FF of course.  Mid-range Oscar fare movies.

 

I would argue that they'd be more likely to not release a lot of their more mid range fare ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  Something like 12 Years a Slave, Three Billboards, Revenant, etc. would have a less likely chance of getting a greenlight under Disney

[dxmatrixdt]

here's my rankings for the JP trilogy

 

but first,

Rotten Tomatoes scores

critics%, audience score

JP1 - 92%, 91

JP2 - 53%, 51

JP3 - 50%, 36

JW - 71%, 78

JW2 - 50%, 63

 

cinemascores

JP1 (1993) - A

JP2 (1997) - B+

JP3 (2001) - B-

JP4 (2015) - A

JP5 (2018) - A-

 

so finally, the first A- on a JP movie.

 

If I assign Jurassic Park as a 99/100

these would be my approximate scores for the sequels relative to this score.

 

JP1 - 99/100

JP2 - 92/100

JP3 - 88/100

JW - 95/100

JW2 - 90/100

*edited some of them

 

 

Edited June 23, 2018 by mathemetrics

[L Silverman]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

I would argue that they'd be more likely to not release a lot of their more mid range fare ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  Something like 12 Years a Slave, Three Billboards, Revenant, etc. would have a less likely chance of getting a greenlight under Disney

So would they be buying Fox only for X-Men and Hulu?  Seems really wasteful.  And remember, 12 Years and Shape of Water won Best Picture.

[Cooper Legion]

43 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

We need parking lot reports, stat!?!

I don’t see anyone in my theater’s parking lot.       

 

Spoiler

This may be related to the fact that I cannot see my theater’s parking lot.

 

[baumer]

4 hours ago, JB33 said:

$140.1M would be exactly a F7 to FotF opening weekend drop. Universal's massive 2015 domestically was the peak for their franchises, sadly. Also consider DM3's drop from both DM2 and MINIONS.

 

$140M would be a solid number for FK but it's still disappointing because I really thought the Jurassic franchise was an untouchable IP along with Marvel and Star Wars. 

 

It would be a big drop but not unheard of.  I guess JW really hit the zeitgeist.  But this is still on pace for about 1.2 billion WW.  That's only 25% down from the first.  not bad at all.

 

4 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

Wow so many butthurt people that movieman89 owned their asses in the IW predictions threads where they were posting stupid prediction after stupid prediction and they think they can retaliate with a sequel that will have a historic drop from its predecessor.

 

Not really going to drop that much from the first.  Not when you take the total WW into account.  And people are just calling out movieman for saying it would finish second to I2 this weekend.  That's how this site works...you make a stupid prediction, you get called on it.

 

3 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

We need parking lot reports, stat!?!

 

[FTF]

Uh eventually we do plan on having numbers in this numbers thread?

 

Edited June 23, 2018 by FTF

[Premium George]

Didn't know that tree was banned for a year. With recent abuser death and now this. Good.

JW can open a good $140m+. I think just like jumanji last year, a unexpected film can surprise this year. 

Edited June 23, 2018 by Premium George

[Hunch]

Jurassic Park has never been untouchable IP outside of the first one and the still somewhat inexplicable mega breakout of Jurassic World. Jurassic Park III wasn't even that big in 2001. 

 

Based on how the two trilogies are performing, the pattern seems to be a MASSIVE first film, then big declines with each sequel.

[La Binoche]

Jurassic World was sold out except the front row  

This is why I hate moviepass. 

[TalismanRing]

16 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

I would argue that they'd be more likely to not release a lot of their more mid range fare ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.  Something like 12 Years a Slave, Three Billboards, Revenant, etc. would have a less likely chance of getting a greenlight under Disney

The Revanant cost $160m and most 3rd party financing (especially when it cost over ran to more than double it's budget).  Hardly middling.

 

The significant difference is Disney is now a self financing studio.  It's why they let the Spielberg/Dreamworks deal lapse even though they did well with films like  Lincoln & Bridge of Spies. They reportedly to want Fox & Fox Searchlight to fill the places that Touchstone & Miramax used to fill  -  if only to have more content for their streaming services. 

[La Binoche]

Idk if this is true but I like it. 

 

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Hunch said:

Jurassic Park has never been untouchable IP outside of the first one and the still somewhat inexplicable mega breakout of Jurassic World. Jurassic Park III wasn't even that big in 2001. 

 

Based on how the two trilogies are performing, the pattern seems to be a MASSIVE first film, then big declines with each sequel.

 

Different patterns though.  The Lost World could have been even bigger than the first.  It destroyed the opening weekend record at the time and should have topped the original, but sadly it wasn't a very good movie and the public stayed away after the opening weekend.  Jurassic World was gargantuan and was bound to have a decline for the sequel.  I think most of us thought it would do at least 400 mill, so in that sense, it is going to be a bit of a disappointment.  Even if it opens to 150, it needs a 2.66X to get to 400...probably not going to happen.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

The Revanant cost $160m and most 3rd party financing (especially when it cost over ran to more than double it's budget).  Hardly middling.

 

 

Revenant costing $160M just convinces me more that Disney would've never financed it  

[TalismanRing]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Revenant costing $160M just convinces me more that Disney would've never financed it  

It wasn't green lit at that budget. I think the original budget was $60m.  It only got that huge because the director is a madman and the people financing it gave him way too much rope and too much money.

[Ryan Reynolds]

 

[Thrylos 7]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It would be a big drop but not unheard of.  I guess JW really hit the zeitgeist.  But this is still on pace for about 1.2 billion WW.  That's only 25% down from the first.  not bad at all.

 

 

Not really going to drop that much from the first.  Not when you take the total WW into account.  And people are just calling out movieman for saying it would finish second to I2 this weekend.  That's how this site works...you make a stupid prediction, you get called on it.

 

 

Depends on the perspective, I have it doing around 1.1 billion so dropping 1/3 of the first film is quite bad both in percentages and absolute numbers (way over 500 million drop) plus, but that’s a personal opinion, I think it will have poisoned the well for the third film with its bad reviews and what I believe will be bad wom.

 

Very badly reviewed film that has a huge drop from the previous one, I fail to see the positives other than the cliche “universal will make a profit” . I mean if universal was to loose money from the sequel to a 1.7 billion film for which it spent nearly 400 million $$ (production+marketing budget and this thing had an extremely intense marketing campaign even more intense than deadpool2) then it would have been a catastrophy for the studio that isn’t exactly swimming in huge blockbusters.

 

 

[baumer]

We need @Rthanos to come by and drop a number to get us all talking....like this kind of classic post:

 

Just dropping by....looks like 57-58....lets see how the late late shows play out.

 

So I'm summoning him now:

 

    

[The Futurist]

No Asgardian.

#NotAnEventMovie

Sorry Dinos Freaks.