BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm pleased with Hereditary's performance.

[Joyous Legion]

16 minutes ago, spectroul said:

I can't. Some of you were literally predicting a sub 100M opening for the movie yesterday and now y'all are acting like a 145M one is disappointing, lol.

I hope you realize that there is nothing inconsistent about those two things.      

 

If a movie needed a 50M OW to be not dissapointing, and someone predicted 20M, and it came in at 35 M, they’d be perfectly fine saying “this did 75% better than I thought it would, but looked at in a broader context the numbers aren’t that great.” 

[Joyous Legion]

10 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

The movie is making 145M OW, 375M+ domestic, and 1B+ WW.  These are numbers that many films would kill for.  It’s going to make shitloads of money for Universal.  Don’t see why they’d be disappointed.

There are many films for which 145/375/1B would be incredibly dissapointing.    

 

Welcome to 2018, where numbers that used to be BIG aren’t necessarily anymore.

[Zakiyyah6]

Eh, I defended Deadpool 2's numbers and bizarrely had to defend an over performing Infinity War. I've defending a lot of performances from doom and gloomers this year. I don't just jump on the disappointment bandwagon. I have realistic expectations for films.  I don't see how expecting 170mil for Fallen Kingdom was massively unrealistic.

[Mekanos]

I don't think Universal will necessarily be disappointed with this performance but it will give them pause. I can't speak to the movie's quality but so far the reception seems like they didn't really try to give it something to stand out. If you've seen JW there's no incentive to see this unless you just want more dinos.

 

It's basically in the spot the TF franchise was after Age Of Extinction. They have a choice now on whether to try to win back the domestic audience or cruise on the OS numbers. We know how TF went...

Edited June 23, 2018 by Mekanos

[a2k]

JW2 gonna show a similar drop to TLJ ww from it's predecessor. Daresay we are being far kinder to JW2 than we were to TLJ. Both their predecessors broke out to an unexpected degree (with TFA too no one saw 937 dom, 2b+ ww) and the sequels were expected to decrease. The reception seems mixed for both too. Maybe TLJ 'messing up the legacy' got it extra ire?

Edited June 23, 2018 by a2k

[wildphantom]

Considering a family movie is going to pull in around $90 million this weekend, FK’s $145 million is actually pretty remarkable. 

Great weekend for both movies. 

[Krissykins]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Eh, I defended Deadpool 2's numbers and bizarrely had to defend an over performing Infinity War. I've defending a lot of performances from doom and gloomers this year. I don't just jump on the disappointment bandwagon. I have realistic expectations for films.  I don't see how expecting 170mil for Fallen Kingdom was massively unrealistic.

It definitely wasn’t unrealistic.

 

But I think in the past two weeks, with the overseas numbers, tracking, reviews, the presales etc it was becoming clear that the opening weekend would be much smaller than the last film. 

 

At least it’s saving some face I suppose. 

[Zakiyyah6]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

It definitely wasn’t unrealistic.

 

But I think in the past two weeks, with the overseas numbers, tracking, reviews, the presales etc it was becoming clear that the opening weekend would be much smaller than the last film. 

 

At least it’s saving some face I suppose. 

I don't disagree that it was an expected disappointment. I'm not being all doom and gloomy.  It's still going to make the studio a lot of money and we'll see a 3rd one whenever it has been dated. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

5 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I don't think Universal will necessarily be disappointed with this performance but it will give them pause. I can't speak to the movie's quality but so far the reception seems like they didn't really try to give it something to stand out. If you've seen JW there's no incentive to see this unless you just want more dinos.

 

It's basically in the spot the TF franchise was after Age Of Extinction. They have a choice now on whether to try to win back the domestic audience or cruise on the OS numbers. We know how TF went...

Two words: MICHAEL effing BAY.

[Joyous Legion]

In fact, decided to do a little digging with numbers. When JW1 came out, this is how many films had reached those numbers:  

145+ OW:  10    

375+ DOM:  24

1B+ WW: 22

 

And now:  

145+ OW: 21 (+110%)   

375+ DOM: 37 (+54%) 

1B+ WW:  35 (+59%)

    

 

It’s not that these are small numbers, or something idiotic like that. It’s still approximately the 20th biggest unadjusted opening in history. But they aren’t big boy numbers either, not anymore. In 2015 JW played like a top dog, and now it isn’t. Many people have been expecting that for  a while, and it fell less than it could have, but it’s still not an unreasonable thing to point out.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Mekanos]

Even with a 145M opening I'm not sure it can pass 350M. As always, we'll have to see how it drops next weekend.

[Krissykins]

12 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Im honestly curious about the Cinemascore.

A-

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

Always makes me laugh when people use CinemaScore over stuff like RT Audience Ratings.

Lol stop. 

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Even with a 145M opening I'm not sure it can pass 350M. As always, we'll have to see how it drops next weekend.

Didn’t the last film have a 3.1x?

 

I think summer weekdays and nothing next weekend will help it get a 2.5x. 

[wildphantom]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

In fact, decided to do a little digging with numbers. When JW1 came out, this is how many films had reached those numbers:  

145+ OW:  10    

375+ DOM:  24

1B+ WW: 22

 

And now:  

145+ OW: 21 (+110%)   

375+ DOM: 37 (+54%) 

1B+ WW:  35 (+59%)

    

 

It’s not that these are small numbers, or something idiotic like that. It’s still approximately the 20th biggest unadjusted opening in history. But they aren’t big boy numbers either, not anymore. In 2015 JW played like a top dog, and now it isn’t. Many people have been expecting that for  a while, and it fell less than it could have, but it’s still not an unreasonable thing to point out.

True, but how many of those $145 million plus openers had a monster family event movie pulling in a $90 million sophomore frame the same weekend? 

There’s only so much money to go around ultimately. This is going to be one of the peak weekends of the year and both films have done great. 

 

I might not have liked FK all that much, but I don’t see this opening even close to being disappointing. Especially considering the lukewarm reviews, that it’s been out overseas for two weeks, and there’s one of the biggest films of all time only a week old in theaters. 

[Hades]

Disney/Marvel fanboys trying to shift the goal post now.....🤣

 

The butthurt from 3 years ago is still strong. 

[YLF]

You guys made hereditary seem like a shit movie and its actually good. Fuck BOT

 

I almost didnt see it because of ya'll  lol

[Mekanos]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Didn’t the last film have a 3.1x?

 

I think summer weekdays and nothing next weekend will help it get a 2.5x. 

Yeah, but if the film's WOM is more like Europe than Asia I could see it dropping off. Avengers had a 3x multi but AOU had a 2.4x.

Edited June 23, 2018 by Mekanos

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, YLF said:

You guys made hereditary seem like a shit movie and its actually good. Fuck BOT

 

I almost didnt see it because of ya'll  lol

Hereditary is amazing! Glad you enjoyed it! 

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Yeah, but if the film's WOM is more like Europe than Asia I could see it dropping off. Avengers had a 3x multi but AOU had a 2.4x.

Cinemascore is A- I think it might be ok. AOU didn’t have summer weekdays. 

[bladels]

With $145M OW, I think JW2 can still hit $400M

Its OW is deflated by I2 and July competitions are weak