BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I love how people will turn against audience scores when it's a movie they're stanning for but instantly use them in their favor when it's a movie they're rooting against.

  

Audience scores always don't mean anything to me when its from less than 100k votes.

 

When it doesn't have that many votes, it can be easily manipulated

[John Marston]

5 hours ago, a2k said:

JW2 gonna show a similar drop to TLJ ww from it's predecessor. Daresay we are being far kinder to JW2 than we were to TLJ. Both their predecessors broke out to an unexpected degree (with TFA too no one saw 937 dom, 2b+ ww) and the sequels were expected to decrease. The reception seems mixed for both too. Maybe TLJ 'messing up the legacy' got it extra ire?

 

 

I thinn itsxbecause RLJ opened nearly on par with TFA while JW it was clear the interest wasn’t as much as the first 

[FilmBuff]

150-160 mil ow. Lol at the trolls who thought this would only do sub 100 mil ow.

[sfran43]

 

Edited June 23, 2018 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Krissykins]

33 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I love how people will turn against audience scores when it's a movie they're stanning for but instantly use them in their favor when it's a movie they're rooting against.

 

I never use it for anything. You seem to enjoy updating us with it repeatedly, but no one cares. It’s not an indicator of anything. 

 

Current example: Oceans 8, 47% or something and falling less than 40% in its third weekend with sub 40% week to week drops. 

[Brainbug]

On 6/22/2018 at 2:35 AM, Brainbug said:

Ok, i might as well give my prediction, so i can play prophet later on or you can all laugh at me:

 

Previews: 16,5M

Friday: 60,5M (44M true Friday)

Sat; 52,5M (+19% true Fr)

Sun: 43,2M (-17%)

 

OW: 156,2M

 

 

Feeling really good about my early prediction now

[baumer]

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

 

47% bump on Friday for Incredibles.  Much better than the 33% that Dory did.  If it were to follow TS3 for Sat and Sunday, it would do about 80 million.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Krissykins said:

 

I never use it for anything. You seem to enjoy updating us with it repeatedly, but no one cares. It’s not an indicator of anything. 

 

Current example: Oceans 8, 47% or something and falling less than 40% in its third weekend with sub 40% week to week drops. 

Translation: you don't care. Many on here like using audience scores as a metric of gauging audience reception. There are some movies where it can be tampered by trolls, but for the majority of movies, it's a good metric.

 

As for Ocean's 8, how did that 54% drop go last weekend? That was a movie where the audience score was slightly tampered, but it's hilarious how you're touting the 40% drop this weekend and ignoring last week.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Feeling really good about my early prediction now

 

I think your Saturday is a bit too high.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

I think your Saturday is a bit too high.

 

I have FAITH

[a2k]

47% bump for I2 compared to Dory's 33%

24.0 (+47% vs 33%)

31.4 (+31% vs +19%) // this is optimistic

25.4 (-19% vs -21%)

= 80.8

 

... a little under 80 could happen

Edited June 23, 2018 by a2k

[baumer]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Translation: you don't care. Many on here like using audience scores as a metric of gauging audience reception. There are some movies where it can be tampered by trolls, but for the majority of movies, it's a good metric.

 

As for Ocean's 8, how did that 54% drop go last weekend? That was a movie where the audience score was slightly tampered, but it's hilarious how you're touting the 40% drop this weekend and ignoring last week.

 

What sequels don't drop more than 50% in the second weekend?  O8 obviously had a somewhat built in audience to it.  Most films that do, drop more than 50% in the second weekend and if the WOM is good, it recovers in the third weekend.  

[baumer]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

I have FAITH

 

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Translation: you don't care. Many on here like using audience scores as a metric of gauging audience reception. There are some movies where it can be tampered by trolls, but for the majority of movies, it's a good metric.

 

As for Ocean's 8, how did that 54% drop go last weekend? That was a movie where the audience score was slightly tampered, but it's hilarious how you're touting the 40% drop this weekend and ignoring last week.

I said a current example. 

 

54% second weekend in the face of a $180m opener after a weekend inflated by $4m of previews? Yeh I think it’s alright  a 54% drop doesn’t indicate bad WOM. 

 

Doesn’t seem reflective of the multipliers for Life of the Party, Breaking In and I Feel Pretty either on a quick check. Or Hereditary. 

 

But if you enjoy using it to gauge audience reception, keep enjoying yourself. 

 

[sfran43]

 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I said a current example. 

 

54% second weekend in the face of a $180m opener after a weekend inflated by $4m of previews? Yeh I think it’s alright  a 54% drop doesn’t indicate bad WOM. 

 

Doesn’t seem reflective of the multipliers for Life of the Party, Breaking In and I Feel Pretty either on a quick check. Or Hereditary. 

 

But if you enjoy using it to gauge audience reception, keep enjoying yourself. 

 

Hereditary's audience score was pretty high for a bit. After the D+ CinemaScore, I was telling people the RT audience score doesn't reflect that. I was right there!

[a2k]

-	(1)	Incredibles 2	Walt Disney	$24,040,000	+47%	4,410	$5,451	$293,486,690	8
-	(4)	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Walt Disney	$1,188,000	+28%	2,338	$508	$199,319,870	29
-	(8)	Avengers: Infinity War	Walt Disney	$691,000	+35%	1,456	$475	$667,675,449	57
-	(12)	A Wrinkle in Time	Walt Disney	$28,000	-74%	90	$311	$100,327,926	106
-	(-)	Black Panther	Walt Disney	$23,000	+53%	115	$200	$699,694,468	127

[Krissykins]

6 minutes ago, a2k said:

47% bump for I2 compared to Dory's 33%

24.0 (+47% vs 33%)

31.4 (+31% vs +19%) // this is optimistic

25.4 (-19% vs -21%)

= 80.8

 

... a little under 80 could happen

One of Pixar’s biggest second weekend drops, aside from Good Dinosaur and the Cars sequels by the look of things. -56%?