BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

Just to give you an idea - right now $120mm isn't locked but the most likely outcomes are probably $130-150mm, which is bang on what tracking said weeks ago, and very few people expected more than that.

 

Meanwhile, if it hits ~$140mm your calls for $80-90mm are going to be as wrong as someone who was, yesterday, calling for $190-200mm. 

Brainbug told me he would serve me crow if it blew past 150+ like he expected, and I agreed he should serve me that crow. He never expected 130-150m, always said that was too low. So sorry, don't accept the crow unless he's right. That's how it works after all. 

[grey ghost]

I guess as a Marvel fan I must admit defeat.

 

I mean. 350 m DOM could happen..

 

That number is really...something.

 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Don't think Sherk 2 is bad but it doesn't hold up as well as it should.

[eVerYtHING]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I guess as a Marvel fan I must admit defeat.

 

I mean. 350 m DOM could happen..

 

That number is really...something.

 

 

Yep, it would be higher than Thor, Thor 2, Thor 3, Captain America, Captain America 2, Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Doctor Strange, The Incredible Hulk, Ant-Man, Spider-Man Homecoming, and Guardians of the Galaxy. For a box office flop that is not too bad.

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by eVerYtHING

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

i r o n y

 

 

You're not even trying with this lmao, Solo and DP2 are both far more previews-heavy than Jurassic World.  A better comp would be I2.  Following it with a bigger Sunday drop would get it to 147M.

I2 is a better comp?

 

FK has rave reviews and was highly anticipated?

[Brainbug]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Oh TOG, your celebrations and assumptions off of preview and Friday #'s are always the darndest things. Stay young, stay innocent. 

 

Meanwhile, the adults will wait for the Friday #s after a preview that was 1m higher than the 200+ opening Solo and 3m lower than the 270+ record breaking opener DP2.

 

Oh wait, those opened to 85-125m? Hmm...shame.

 

Well, thankfully FK isn't a sequel so it should be walk up heavy!

 

Oh wait, it is a sequel?

 

Hmmm

 

 

 

The fact your using SOLO as a comparison - and with Deadpool yet another CBM which are WAY WAY more presales-driven than JP movies...

 

Edit: And yes, i stick with 150M+. If it goes lower, you serve the crow to me.

Edited June 22, 2018 by Brainbug

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It's a sequel to a movie that has no business being anywhere near as frontloaded as a spin-off to the most frontloaded franchise in existence and an R-rated comic book comedy sequel. Why are you being so stubborn about this, dude, JW2 is not opening under Deadpool 2 

Look at where it ranks on the all time previews chart

http://www.boxofficereport.com/previewgrosses.html#FRIDAY

 

It's in the company of a whole lot of 85-125m openers. So unless it's supposed to perform like IM3 or Deadpool 1, which are completely unrealistic comps, 120ish may very well still be where it's headed. Obviously, I'm not saying it will still do sub 100 with a 15m preview because it won't be that frontloaded. That would be stubborn. But it is still a direct sequel, why are people having such a hard time understanding that? 

[eVerYtHING]

8 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Broader audience reach?

 

*Looks at BP and IW current BO*

I didn't say bigger, I said broader, the age for example is much wider for Jurassic Park because the franchise is 25 years old so there are a lot of middle aged adults who like Jurassic Park. Whereas Marvel Cinematic Universe is only 10 years old so most of the people who grew up with it are very young still, which is why it's frontloaded. There are not many middle aged people who like Marvel because that makes them sad.

[Jonwo]

Just now, Zakiyyah6 said:

Don't think Shrek 2 is bad but it doesn't hold up as well as it should.

Shrek 2 is good but it doesn't hold a candle to the first film. 

 

Given Disney's success with adapting their animated films into live action films, you have wonder if Universal and DWA would do a live action Shrek? To me, it would be better than doing a Shrek 5. 

[JohnnyGossamer]

38 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

feathers are cool and jurassic park 3 is the only one that embraced the feathers by giving the raptors those feather mohawks. definitely the best sequel.

[Zakiyyah6]

Ahh, the petty back and forth. Why wait for the actual numbers?

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's in the company of a whole lot of 85-125m openers

 

If by a "whole lot" you mean 1 (Homecoming), then sure, it's accompanied by a whole lot of these

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

Yep, it would be higher than Thor, Thor 2, Thor 3, Captain America, Captain America 2, Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Doctor Strange, The Incredible Hulk, Ant-Man, Spider-Man Homecoming, and Guardians of the Galaxy. For a box office flop that is not too bad.

 

Hmm.

 

The number of spin offs is a testament to the source material.

 

How many Jurassic World spin offs are making over 200 m DOM and 700 m WW?

[a2k]

1 hour ago, RealLyre said:

no hope for 90M-95M? 

I used +49%, +32%, -21% for 84m

FD was +33%, +19%, -21% which gives 70

Cars3 was +74%, +23.5%, -28% which gives 91

 

Cars3 was at much smaller numbers. It's entire dom was 153. TF5 was the 'big' competition and had opened on Wed while JW2's Fri launch could make a big bump difficult for I2.

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by a2k

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

If by a "whole lot" you mean 1 (Homecoming), then sure, it's accompanied by a whole lot of these

There are zero films in the 13-15.5m preview range outside of the 84-125m OW range. But ok, you're entitled to be wrong. 

[FilmBuff]

Where are the fools who were predicting 100 mil ow like thyrlos and movieman? 100 mil my ass

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

I didn't say bigger, I said broader, the age for example is much wider for Jurassic Park because the franchise is 25 years old so there are a lot of middle aged adults who like Jurassic Park. Whereas Marvel Cinematic Universe is only 10 years old so most of the people who grew up with it are very young still, which is why it's frontloaded. There are not many middle aged people who like Marvel because that makes them sad.

I'm fairly certain plenty of MCU films are four quadrant.

[WrathOfHan]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm guessing Happytime has been moved. Mile 22 is also from STX.

Ah shit, that makes sense. Maybe it got moved to the end of September?

[Webslinger]

Not bad for Jurassic World. With how shaky the tracking has appeared, retaining over 80% of the previous film's preview audience is a nice turn of events. That said, the previous film's previews were also diluted by the NBA Finals game that aired that night and this one is debuting a couple weeks deeper into the summer schedule, so I definitely don't expect that 80-ish% retention to hold.

[sfran43]

17 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

When do we usually get early Friday numbers?

 

Around 3:30pm Eastern, 12:30pm Pacific