BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[Maxmoser3]

The preview number isn’t terrible. Should do $125-$135 million. Legs will be shaky

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

 

Before JW, there were 0 films in the 0-18.6m preview range over $175 mil.

Ok, but still doesn't change the fact that people acting like they know it will defy the data and forge its own path like JW when they don't know anything yet are being premature. 

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I cannot wait for the Marvel shit to stop. Hopefully it starts dying down after Avengers 4.

 

I miss the BOM forums when the MCU didn’t exist. The fanboys are a nightmare. 

 

BOM sucked.

 

Rose tinted glasses tells you arguing about Superman Returns and Transformers on an inferior website was more fun.

 

I like Kal's schtick but no.

 

 

 

[ChipDerby]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

3x is not easy to get for any franchise.

 

Not these days.

 

Edit: except for animated movies.

 

 

 

With my projected OW, it only needs 2.8 to get over $400 mil.

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lmao if you think IM3 is in any way relevant. It's from a completely different era of how previews were. May as well be the 80's at this point. But sure, use it if it makes you feel good. 

 

Ok, I'll expand the range to 13-17m previews. Excluding IM3 still only gives us F7, BatB, and GotG2 above the 125 mark.  All with higher previews than FK. F7 had major special circumstances going for it that fueled walk ups, don't even try to deny that. BatB isn't a sequel and had the family audience to offset the YA rush, so a bad comp. That leaves GotG2, which may be a pretty good comp, but opened with previews nearly 2m higher. So if we give FK GotG2's preview multi it gets 130m. Right at the top of the 120-130m range I'm saying that preview indicates. 

 

ok.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

Superheroes are the same movie. You FOLLOW CHARACTERS, THEY FIGHT VILLAINS. ITS ABOUT THEM. They arent movies based off a single plot idea. 

INB4 Triggered Comments

[Lordmandeep]

Jurrasic World did not have much redeeming value apart from being a decent summer blockbuster in the same level as Dead Man's Chest.

 

Meaning it did not really bring in a ton of curiosity into the 2nd part. 

[MCKillswitch123]

I'm a Marvel fan too but I cannot believe that the fanbase is still bitter that JW1 outgrossed Avengers. Jesus Christ, you literally just got Infinity War and Black Panther blowing everything else out of the water, what do you want?

 

Why else would the Marvel fanboys turn a Jurassic Park movie thread into a dumpster fire, after all?

Edited June 22, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Ok, but still doesn't change the fact that people acting like they know it will defy the data and forge its own path like JW when they don't know anything yet are being premature. 

 

They're just refuting the doom and gloom. And it opening over $150 mil wouldn't "defy the data".

[titanic2187]

I am actually quite surprised there is someone to spoil the JW:FK here, the movie left me with no intention of talking about it after watching.....

[Chewy]

4 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

Its official everyone here is a dumbass. Its really not that hard to understand. Jurassic Park is NOT a franchise like Marvel or superhero movies. no shit it doesn't increase.

 

Superheroes are the same movie. You FOLLOW CHARACTERS, THEY FIGHT VILLAINS. ITS ABOUT THEM. They arent movies based off a single plot idea. 

 

Jurassic Park is a disaster movie franchise. Its like making a sequel to ID4 or 2012 or Armageddon. Its a ONE and DONE idea.

 

 

 

 

 

You cant got back to island and follow a bunch of regular folks who cant throw a punch to save the world or fight new enemies, THEY DONT SAVE THE WORLD. LEGIT all they do is safety get away from DISASTER. 

 

I can pull shit outta my ass for superheroes. Drax has a long lost mother form a galaxy we never heard off. OH no the moms a villan, our heroes have to fight her, ok. 

 

You can come up with 1,000 of these. You can just pull villains and situations outta our ass and retcon cannon every movie if you wanted too. Heres a villains.   Avengers movies are all the same. A villain has come to destroy the world, Characters we love stop them.

 

 

 

 

JP isnt the SAME.

 

Alan Grant or Ian Malcom aren't going to save the world from villains, They got on helicopter in time and got away from Dinosaurs. Thats it. ITs a one and done concept.

 

You guys cant compare a group of FIGHTING heroes to a bunch of OIL DRILLERS stopping an astroid. You cant do that 5 times. The SAME OIL CREW keeps saving the world from another asteroid? or how about a HURRICANE this time? What about Hiring OIL Driller to stop an NUCLAR bomb? THEY ARE OIL DRILLERS. THEY DRILL.  it doesn't work that way. And neither does JURASSIC PARK. 

 

It just shows how AMAZING of a disaster movie JP and how popular it is that they were able made 5 of these and they are still some how making money off a ONE film concept hahah. IT'S A DISASTER MOVIEEEEEE. 

 

 

 

This is a very good point I just wonder why you weren't saying it a month ago 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I'm a Marvel fan too but I cannot believe that the fanbase is still bitter that JW1 outgrossed Avengers. Jesus Christ, you literally just got Infinity War and Black Panther blowing everything else out of the water, what do you want?

 

Why else would the Marvel fanboys turn a Jurassic Park movie thread into a dumpster fire, after all?

Same here. I love the MCU but it’s appalling the way some people are behaving.

[The Panda]

21 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

It's odd that the 15.5M number is the cutoff point and your low end is 2.3M less than FK's previews.  If you were to expand the high end by just a few hundred thousand, then Iron Man 3 and Furious 7 are right there

 

I was doing "range" as being within 500k of JW's preview numbers.  But apparently you want to come up with an arbitrary range to justify your ridiculous prediction.  So be my guest, I guess.

TOG’s right about this.  If you look at OW ranges from previews within +-1.5 or so of FK’s preview you could get as high as 175m, but also as low as 84m

 

Given that range can definitely be narrowed by knowing the type of movie JW:FK is.

 

Where it gets with different IMs (remember summers are a bit more internally frontloaded, so take that into consideration when looking at non summer comps)

TLJ: 75m

RO: 82m

Solo: 92m

BvS: 93m

Suicide Squad: 100m

IW: 101m

DP2: 103m

AoU: 107m

Civil War: 110m

JL: 111m

SMH: 116m 

Ragnarok: 130m

GOTG2: 132m

Doctor Strange: 139m

IT: 141m

Logan: 143m

WW: 144m

I2: 152m

Deadpool: 160.2m

BATB: 165m

JW: 174m

Dory: 226m

 

I was only doing this to show how little info preview numbers really give you in reality.  There’s some obvious extremes there that won’t happen (like DORY or TLJ/RO/Solo, etc) but it shows how much of a range those previews could technically have when you look at all the recent big hitters.

Edited June 22, 2018 by The Incredible Panda

[eVerYtHING]

12 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

It's unconventional to start with spinoffs  but yes Avengers was always the main franchise.

 

They knew it from the get go.

 

Like if there were Yoda and Solo prequels before A New Hope.

 

This is so stupid backward reasoning

 I think you know you are wrong.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

I'm a Marvel fan too but I cannot believe that the fanbase is still bitter that JW1 outgrossed Avengers. Jesus Christ, you literally just got Infinity War and Black Panther blowing everything else out of the water, what do you want?

 

Why else would the Marvel fanboys turn a Jurassic Park movie thread into a dumpster fire, after all?

 

I was just lurking in 2015 on these forums, but many many Marvel fans were extremely butthurt that JW not only demolished Age of Ultron DOM, but worldwide.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

INB4 Triggered Comments

Triggered for what?

 

Would anyone associate GOTG2, Ant-Man, Winter Soldier, Dr Strange and Black Panther without being told they're the same universe?

 

Why would they?

 

It's such a lazy non-argument.

[grey ghost]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

I was just lurking in 2015 on these forums, but many many Marvel fans were extremely butthurt that JW not only demolished Age of Ultron DOM, but worldwide.

Universal taking the studio crown in 2015 is unforgivable.

 

That was Disney's year.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Thread needs more Jurassic Park III gifs to restore balance...

 

 

[The Panda]

Realistically, I think around a SMH IM is the worst case scenario from here and id suspect an I2 IM is about as good as you could expect.

 

So that’s around a 115m-155m realistic range the weekend could fall under

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, The Incredible Panda said:

TOG’s right about this.  If you look at OW ranges from previews within +-1.5 or so of FK’s preview you could get as high as 175m, but also as low as 84m

 

Given that range can definitely be narrowed by knowing the type of movie JW:FK is.

 

Where it gets with different IMs (remember summers are a bit more internally frontloaded, so take that into consideration when looking at non summer comps)

TLJ: 75m

RO: 82m

Solo: 92m

BvS: 93m

Suicide Squad: 100m

IW: 101m

DP2: 103m

AoU: 107m

Civil War: 110m

JL: 111m

SMH: 116m 

Ragnarok: 130m

GOTG2: 132m

Doctor Strange: 139m

IT: 141m

Logan: 143m

WW: 144m

I2: 152m

Deadpool: 160.2m

BATB: 165m

JW: 174m

Dory: 226m

 

I was only doing this to show how little info preview numbers really give you in reality.  There’s some obvious extremes there that won’t happen (like DORY or TLJ/RO/Solo, etc) but it shows how much of a range those previews could technically have when you look at all the recent big hitters.

Of course no one knows exactly what a movie will do from previews. The odds are clealry against much more than 130m though, especially as a direct sequel.