BOX OFFICE THEORY WORLD: FALLEN KINGDOM WEEKEND THREAD | 150 OW OFFICIAL ESTIMATE | No Spoilers, Read Rules First Post! | First Post Updated with Sale Info

[MrFanaticGuy34]

3 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

Not as big as Shrek 2's opening of 190M.

Um....Shrek 2 opened with $108M. 

[RealLyre]

When do we usually get early Friday numbers?

 

[The Panda]

9 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Imagine people saying for months that Incredibles 2 would open sub 120M. And then it breaks all those records.

 

For us JP/JW fans, this is the same situation, no matter if the film hits 130M or 170M.

The difference there was that I2 was having an unprecedented record smash weekend for an animation.

 

JW2 is following JW.  People melted down when AoU opened at 192m following a record breaking opener.  I don't necessarily think this is any way a disaster for Universal, it'll end up being profitable enough to greenlight a sequel, but it doesn't really seem like any sort of triumph either.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, eVerYtHING said:

Mamma Mia will cost best part of 100M to produce, and big marketing costs as well, if it made 500M I don't think it would turn more profit than Jurassic World which will gross over $1 billions.

Mamma Mia! cost $52m originally, I imagine this will be around the same, maybe slightly more. 

[eVerYtHING]

Shrek 2 adjusted opening weekend is $190M. Also Shrek 2 is a much better film than Incredibles 2. Nothing will beat Shrek 2 the only animated film capable is The Lion King next year.

 

Just now, Jonwo said:

Mamma Mia! cost $52m originally, I imagine this will be around the same, maybe slightly more.

 

it will be a lot more than that because the actors will have bigger salaries due to the first film doing so well.

Edited June 22, 2018 by eVerYtHING

[That One Girl]

Just now, The Incredible Panda said:

but it doesn't really seem like any sort of triumph either.

 

it's a personal triumph for me because I put 145M in the Derby and that looks to be pretty spot on

[Jake Gittes]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Totally off-topic but i watched The Innocents 2 days ago, forgot to tell you. Its amazing. Definetly Top 50 material. Claytons directing is magnificient.

I'm outta likes but happy to hear that. And it's not off-topic or at least shouldn't be, I still remember the days when people had a good time talking about random cool shit in these threads and not just sniping at each other over numbers

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

it's a personal triumph for me because I put 145M in the Derby and that looks to be pretty spot on

 

wait I just realized I forgot to submit Derby scores this week  

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

https://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-tracking-mile-22-crazy-rich-asians-alpha/

 

Crazy Rich Asians: 13/42

Alpha: 8.4/24

Mile 22: 15/44 (+15/+16%)

No Happytime Murders

 

TCs:

 

Ant-Man: 3,900

The First Purge: 2,800

I'm guessing Happytime has been moved. Mile 22 is also from STX.

[grey ghost]

5 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

Why would a film like Jurassic World that doesn't have fans like Marvel, and has a much broader audience reach, only have 2.5x legs?

Just because 2.5 is standard for Avengers does not mean it is standard for other films.

Broader audience reach?

 

*Looks at BP and IW current BO*

[BugsBunny]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, you may wanna wait a bit. Nothing about that preview locks more than 120 and thats hardly a case for you serving crow, hate to break it to you. Man I love how completely rock bottom these FK expectations have gotten that people are ready to celebrate one of the biggest sequel drops ever lol.

Just to give you an idea - right now $120mm isn't locked but the most likely outcomes are probably $130-150mm, which is bang on what tracking said weeks ago, and very few people expected more than that.

 

Meanwhile, if it hits ~$140mm your calls for $80-90mm are going to be as wrong as someone who was, yesterday, calling for $190-200mm. 

[MovieMan89]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Unless this has absolutely horrible legs, sub-120M ain't happening lmao

Oh TOG, your celebrations and assumptions off of preview and Friday #'s are always the darndest things. Stay young, stay innocent. 

 

Meanwhile, the adults will wait for the Friday #s after a preview that was 1m higher than the 200+ opening Solo and 3m lower than the 270+ record breaking opener DP2.

 

Oh wait, those opened to 85-125m? Hmm...shame.

 

Well, thankfully FK isn't a sequel so it should be walk up heavy!

 

Oh wait, it is a sequel?

 

Hmmm

 

 

[SteveJaros]

$15.3m is good ... I figured many were low-balling this. Should have learned their lessons from JW.

[Taruseth]

3 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

Shrek 2 adjusted opening weekend is $190M. Also Shrek 2 is a much better film than Incredibles 2. Nothing will beat Shrek 2 the only animated film capable is The Lion King next year.

 

 

it will be a lot more than that because the actors will have bigger salaries due to the first film doing so well.

Shrek 2 had a five day opening Weekend, I2 a 3.5day OW.

 

And TLK will also just have a 3.5day OW and is (no idea why) considered Live Action.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

 

it will be a lot more than that because the actors will have bigger salaries due to the first film doing so well.

It's been 10 years since the first Mamma Mia! and I can't imagine anyone's getting a huge salary bump to double the cost. 

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, eVerYtHING said:

Shrek 2 adjusted opening weekend is $190M. Also Shrek 2 is a much better film than Incredibles 2. Nothing will beat Shrek 2 the only animated film capable is The Lion King next year.

 

 

it will be a lot more than that because the actors will have bigger salaries due to the first film doing so well.

Pinocchio in a thong, loud disco and lazy cat nip is weed jokes.

 

Oh yeah. The pinnacle of the animation industry right there.

 

 

Edited June 22, 2018 by grey ghost

[MattW]

I'll throw my guess in since we have previews now

 

15.3 + 38 + 42(+10%) + 34(-19%) = 129

 

I'll admit I'm disappointed, it's a bigger drop than transformers and pirates had and I thought JW was a lot more fun than either of those franchise's sequels (first of each was pretty good). I haven't watched fallen kingdom yet but it's gotta at least be better than those sequels were. 

 

Originally I thought 165/400+, but when presales and tracking started coming in it looked like it was trending down to deadpool 2's range, which is about where I see it from these previews. 

[That One Girl]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Oh TOG, your celebrations and assumptions off of preview and Friday #'s are always the darndest things. Stay young, stay innocent. 

 

 

i r o n y

 

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Meanwhile, the adults will wait for the Friday #s after a preview that was 1m higher than the 200+ opening Solo and 3m lower than the 270+ record breaking opener DP2.

 

 

You're not even trying with this lmao, Solo and DP2 are both far more previews-heavy than Jurassic World.  A better comp would be I2.  Following it with a bigger Sunday drop would get it to 147M.

[TwoMisfits]

Gonna post another positive for JWFK - the matinees at my locals are rocking, so this is obviously pulling in the "don't have to work" audience of kids-college students today...now these locals had 1 fewer screen than normal supers sets (3 vs 4, so that usually signals a $150M top possible in my personal "locals screens = $50M max/screen"), and they loaded up 2d showings (vs 3d), but that should be another good sign that we'll be seeing better Friday to preview multipliers today, not worse ones:)...

Edited June 22, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[MCKillswitch123]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Oh TOG, your celebrations and assumptions off of preview and Friday #'s are always the darndest things. Stay young, stay innocent. 

 

Meanwhile, the adults will wait for the Friday #s after a preview that was 1m higher than the 200+ opening Solo and 3m lower than the 270+ record breaking opener DP2.

 

Oh wait, those opened to 85-125m? Hmm...shame.

 

Well, thankfully FK isn't a sequel so it should be walk up heavy!

 

Oh wait, it is a sequel?

 

Hmmm

 

 

It's a sequel to a movie that has no business being anywhere near as frontloaded as a spin-off to the most frontloaded franchise in existence and an R-rated comic book comedy sequel. Why are you being so stubborn about this, dude, JW2 is not opening under Deadpool 2 

Edited June 22, 2018 by MCKillswitch123