Weekend Thread....Please read the staff announcement pg 104 (Solo 29.2...DP 23.3...Adrift 11.5)

[Rebeccas]

Great for IW and DP2. Solo need not be discussed 

[grim22]

When Deadline is going for the jugular, you know you bombed hard enough for them to not care toeing the studio line

 

While many cite that five months is too soon for another Star Wars movie following Last Jedi, the fact of the matter is moviegoing is a product-driven business. Solo came in the marketplace with too much stink about his behind-the-scenes melodrama, which spread like wildfire on social, and likely impacted critical and audience perception. Even if you pushed Solo to December, it would still have that blemish. Despite the movie’s solid positive exit scores, Solo‘s problem isn’t with the folks leaving the theater, but getting the non-fans in the door. While fanboys may not discriminate movie ticket pricing, a family of six is going to think twice before they rush to Solo. We’ll see how overseas does this weekend before we analyze Solo‘s losses. But saying that Disney won’t endure a writedown due to Star Wars merchandising is foolish. That’s an excuse up there with “the dog ate my homework”.  First, franchise pics that bomb don’t yield toy sales, especially in this current landscape with Toys R Us out of business, a national chain that owned a 15% marketshare. Second, industry sources inform Deadline that Last Jedi missed its $600M merchandise revenue target with a $450M take.

[Zakiyyah6]

15 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

Solo 7.8,DP2 6.5,AIW 2.7,BC 2.1,Adr 4.2,Upg 1.5,AP 780k

So less of an increase than Pirates 5 despite that going up against Wonder Woman. If it follows P5 it will hit 27.1mil, which is around a 68% drop. I know, I know. There is nothing overly special about it's legs one way or the other so far. Which brings me to that touted A- cinemascore. Yeah, that continues to mean nothing one way or the other. A film with that score could get bad legs (Man of Steel) or decent legs. You just don't know until it happens. 

Edited June 2, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[MovieMan89]

Damn, I had no idea TLJ missed its merch revenue target by that much. But that finally lends some real weight to my argument that TLJ did not appeal to kids and Disney Wars in general has done an awful job of captivating kids compared to the OT and PT in their day. Huge, huge problem for the franchise in a long term sense if that's the case. 

[Krissykins]

“Second, industry sources inform Deadline that Last Jedi missed its $600M merchandise revenue target with a $450M take.”

 

Justice League could’ve made more in merchandise than it did at the domestic box office. 

[Mojoguy]

We all know those Solo action figures are going be unsold and put on clearance sales in the next few months.

Imagine how sad those toys would be if they were alive like from Toy Story.

[a2k]

RANK	FILM	DIS.	SCREENS (CHG)	FRI	3-DAY (-%)	TOTAL	WK
	1	Solo: A Star Wars Story	Dis	4,381	$8M (-77%)	$28.2M (-67%)	$147.8M	2
	2	Deadpool 2	Fox	4,161 (-188)	$6.5M (-46%)	$23.1M (-47%)	$254.4M	3
	3	Adrift	STX	3,015	$4.4M	$12M	$12M	1
	4	Avengers: Infinity War	Dis	3,570 (-198)	$2.9M (-31%)	$10.9M (-37%)	$643.3M	6
	5	Book Club	Par	3,169 (+359)	$2.1M (-24%)	$7M (-30%)	$47.5M	3
	6	Upgrade	BHT	1,457	$1.7M	$4.3M	$4.3M	1
	7	Life Of The Party	NL/WB	2,511 (-426)	$1M (-25%)	$3.5M (-34%)	$46.3M	4
	8	Breaking In	Uni	1,682 (-303)	$751K  (-32%)	$2.5M (-41%)	$41M	4
	9	Action Point	Par	2,032	$775K	$2.3M	$2.3M	1
	10	Overboard	LG/MGM	1,228 (+32)	$438K (-39%)	$1.8M (-43%)	$45.3M	5

 

‘Solo’ Hits Asteroid With $28M+

Edited June 2, 2018 by A2k Rex

[dxmatrixdt]

I think the C+ for Action point is only second worst to the C that Strangers got for worst cinemascore of the year.

[Johnny Tran]

I don't know how they recapture the magic.  There's only so far nostalgia can go.  TFA and the new trilogy were supposed to set up the next 30 years for Star Wars like the OT that came before them.   TFA was a safe but decently executed beginning.   Since then...  wow.   I loved Rogue One but this batch of films has not been pretty and I'm not excited for IX but I'm definitely intrigued..  what do they do with it.  It'll make big money but what do they do to keep this rolling along and where do they go with the side projects. 

[Zakiyyah6]

I can't imagine Solo toys being a hot item for kids. lol

 

That toy sale thing is nothing more than people trying to save face 9 times out of 10. 

[Krissykins]

3 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

I think the C+ for Action point is only second worst to the C that Strangers got for worst cinemascore of the year.

Hereditary comes next weekend to probably take that crown. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 I'm not excited for IX but I'm definitely intrigued..  what do they do with it.  It'll make big money but what do they do to keep this rolling along and where do they go with the side projects. 

Hmm yeah same with me. I'm intrigued by what Abrams and co since TLJ pretty much left everything wide open plus with all the extra stuff going on at Lucasfilm but I'm not actively anticipating it. Can't believe I'm saying that as a huge Star Wars fan.

Edited June 2, 2018 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Rebeccas]

I’m excited for the BTS drama for upcoming SW films than the actual films. 

[TalismanRing]

With a $8m Friday Solo could possible get to $30m (req a 3.75x)

 

$2.9m Friday for AIW is just a  smidgen over AOU which did $11.4m (3.95x) and AIW has been having better internal multipliers

 

 

[a2k]

Aug 5–7	1	$133,682,248	-	4,255	-	$31,418	$133,682,248	1
Aug 12–14	1	$43,536,013	-67.4%	4,255	-	$10,232	$222,640,741	2

 

Suicide Squad added 2.35x (102.46/43.54) the 2nd weekend to it's cume.

That gives Solo 147.8 + 28.2*2.35 = 214.1 (using Deadline's weekend)

Edited June 2, 2018 by A2k Rex

[KeepItU25071906]

Action Point is just a little sacrigice for AQP and Book Club success

 

#ParamountIsStillRaising

[KeepItU25071906]

3 minutes ago, A2k Rex said:

Aug 5–7	1	$133,682,248	-	4,255	-	$31,418	$133,682,248	1
Aug 12–14	1	$43,536,013	-67.4%	4,255	-	$10,232	$222,640,741	2

 

Suicide Squad legs added 2.35x (102.46/43.54) the 2nd weekend to it's cume.

That gives Solo 147.8 + 28.2*2.35 = 214.1 (using Deadline's weekend)

Suicide Squad didn't have rival like JW.

[dxmatrixdt]

I wrote down 13 reserved seating showings for Action Point and Upgrade for shows in between 945 and 11 from Northern California.  Seeing the .775 number from Deadline would seem to make sense.  

I got......  18, 6, 15, 15, 16, 4, 11, 36, 2, 1, 6, 5, 10 = 145 purchases, 11.2 average.  prices seem to be well above $10.  Just very vague, and I never do this one but I'm typing it here, assume the 11.2 avg is correct, assume the latest show represents half of the intake, so 22.4 people purchases per theater on Friday.  avg ticket price $9.16 would be $205.184 avg per theater then, and times 2,032 locations gives $417,934.  I do not think AP had any Thursday previews, maybe there were midnights and that those represented the first votes on Rotten Tomatoes, but also maybe.    

 

For Upgrade I got - 32, 41, 31, 40, 55, 24, 32, 18, 38, 8 = 319 purchases, 10 locations, 31.9 avg.  using avg domestic ticket price $9.16 x 31.9 avg = $292.20 and using the method above of doubling the latest showing for Upgrade and then multiplying that result with the total locations of 1,457 theaters is .... $851,470.8.  

One number is 1.5 tonight, the second is 1.7.  I would guess if the east and central time zone showings for Upgrade reflected 1.5 million, and the pacific was stronger and these averages support that, then Upgrade could maybe go to 1.7.   But also Thursday preview could be 0.2 which is the delta/difference of the two numbers but not the physical change or movement of the number shrinking.  

 

most of the showtimes showed about $12-$15 per latest showing and maybe multiplying by $13.50 instead of the $9.16 used here could help inflate a little for the walkups.  the numbers were collected about 5 min or before show starts.

 

*Adrift looked bad with about 5 glances so maybe the number underwhelming from Deadlines 4.4 and closer to RTH's 4.2

Edited June 2, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[Fake]

54 minutes ago, Rthanos said:

Solo 7.8,DP2 6.5,AIW 2.7,BC 2.1,Adr 4.2,Upg 1.5,AP 780k

Atrocious for Solo. Fantastic for DP and IW. If DP can jump close to 50% tomorrow, then it will needs 3x multi from this weekend to reach 300M, which is doable.

 

Solo 7.8/11.6/8.6 = 28.0; 210-215 finish

DP2 6.5/9.5/7 = 23.0 ; 300-305 finish

IW 2.7/4.5/3.3 = 10.5 ; 670-675 finish

Edited June 2, 2018 by Fake

[Pure Spirit]

20 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Hereditary comes next weekend to probably take that crown. 

Not with the outstanding reviews it's getting so far. Have you seen Hereditary or something?