Weekend Actuals (Page 92): Ant-Man and the Wasp 75.8M (#CRUMBLING EVEN MORE) | Jurassic World 28.6M | Incredibles 2 28.4M | The First Purge 17.4M

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

45% I think which is in with BP's and higher than GOTG's (which already had a higher than usual female share).

GOTG's female share was avg for the MCU at  41%  - lower than TWS & AOU at 42% and the same as Civil War. 

 

Avengers so far has had the highest with a reported - I think a near 50/50 split. 

 

To put these in comparison Star Wars TFA had a 58/42 split and Rogue One 59/51

 

But 45% is just opening w/e so that female/male share may even get closer during the entire run.

 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ant-Man forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 31.8M (107.6M Total)

Jul 13: 32.4M (19.8M weekdays, 159.8M Total)

Jul 20: 19.8M (12.5M weekdays, 192.1M Total)

Jul 27: 12.3M (7.1M weekdays, 211.5M Total)

Aug 3: 6.8M (4.3M weekdays, 222.6M Total)

Aug 10: 4.6M (2.6M weekdays, 229.8M Total)

Aug 17: 3.3M (1.9M weekdays, 235M Total)

Aug 24: 2.8M (1.3M weekdays, 239.1M Total)

Aug 31: 3.4M (1.3M weekdays, 243.8M Total)

Sep 7: 1M (300k weekdays, 245.1M Total)

Final Total: 248M (3.27x)

 

I still don't see this having a worse multi than SMH. The competition is much weaker than last July, and most of August is pretty barren. We'll see, but all this talk of it missing 200M is hilarious.

 

I would take that bet in the casino thread.  Why would a MCU sequel have a 3.27X?  

[dxmatrixdt]

4 hours ago, Nova said:

Funny you post a picture of him because @captainwondyful Sent me this DM yesterday when we were discussing the Oscars. She mentions Harvey. She said I could post the DM and to be honest, I couldn’t agree with her more. 

 

“Harvey Weinstein changed the Academy Awards in 1998 when he took campaigning to the NEXT LEVEL with Shakespeare In Love.  Ever since then, we're moved more from blockbusters and popular films to niche films.  We've created an entire genre: they literally call it Oscar Bait.  So now every December we get a string of bullshit faux-art films that exist so no reason except for people to win award and jack off to each other's greatest.

 

When Weinstein took campaigning to another level, it's now become less about the film and more about wooing the votes.  I said this in February in the Best Picture 2019 Predictions, and I will stand by it: the only thing stopping Marvel Studios from sweeping this year with Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War is Kevin Feige's disinterest in campaigning.  Combine that with Disney Studios being HARD for Mary Poppins Returns, and Black Panther will likely be kept to technical awards (Hair and Make-Up, Costumes, Production Design), and AIW will be shut out altogether.

 

If they took 20M of their 2.5B gross profits from Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War they could buy themselves a whole set!  (Though all that extra money is probably going to fucking cover for Solo's losses.)

 

 

In addition, I use to work in film production.  I know just how much work goes into producing film and television.  So it frustrates me to NO END when you had a situation like last year when Greta Grewig got a nomination for Lady Bird and Patty Jenkins got snubbed for Wonder Woman.  Oh, Wow, let's give Grewig a nomination because she knows how to set up a fucking static wide shot and get proper coverage for the matching reserve in editing.  But that doesn't matter, because it's all about the PERFORMANCES she got out of those actors!!  Nevermind that Patty Jenkins was directing technical and difficult fight scenes while still trying to get PERFORMANCES.  It's like the class was assigned a writing assignment; and one person turns in a basic five-page, five-paragraph essay while the other turns in a fifteen page, sourced and cited paper.  It's not the same.  And I wish the Academy would stop giving out free passes.

 

It's why I'm silently going to go apeshit when The Russo Brothers get snubbed for Infinity War -- especially if Ryan "I Should've Had An Oscar For Creed" Coogler doesn't get in for BP.  Listening to the RBs break down a scene, and talk about how much effing work they did, and then remembering the shot these movies back to back, is insane to me.  No one worked harder in this past couple years.  If you want to wait and give it to them for A4,that's fine.  But to dismiss the work altogether is mind-blowing.” 

lol, this is like when Jar Jar gives the Chancellor emergency powers in Attack of the Clones.

[a2k]

- AM2 needs 2.72x to beat THOR2's dom. Could well get there, but don't think it can do much more than 205-210.

 

- Pleasently surprised to see I2 cede the 2nd place to JW2. HT3 could effect I2 next weekend being a direct comp and agian help JW2 stay ahead.

 

-Even without any further help Rampage shouldn't go below 99.6 and WB wouldn't leave it hanging there. 100 looks more or less a done deal. Got a big boost during JW2's ow possibly from double features or maybe WB fudged it.

21

15

Rampage (2018)

WB (NL)

$360,156

-40.1%

120

-81

$3,001

$98,984,095

$120

13

Edited July 9, 2018 by a2k

[Jake Gittes]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ant-Man forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 31.8M (107.6M Total)

Jul 13: 32.4M (19.8M weekdays, 159.8M Total)

Jul 20: 19.8M (12.5M weekdays, 192.1M Total)

Jul 27: 12.3M (7.1M weekdays, 211.5M Total)

Aug 3: 6.8M (4.3M weekdays, 222.6M Total)

Aug 10: 4.6M (2.6M weekdays, 229.8M Total)

Aug 17: 3.3M (1.9M weekdays, 235M Total)

Aug 24: 2.8M (1.3M weekdays, 239.1M Total)

Aug 31: 3.4M (1.3M weekdays, 243.8M Total)

Sep 7: 1M (300k weekdays, 245.1M Total)

Final Total: 248M (3.27x)

 

I still don't see this having a worse multi than SMH. The competition is much weaker than last July, and most of August is pretty barren. We'll see, but all this talk of it missing 200M is hilarious.

You think after a nearly 60% drop next weekend it's gonna rebound well enough to have a sub-40% hold against Equalizer and Mamma Mia? And then have the same hold against MI6 which may well out-open those two combined? Come down to earth man.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

HT3 will be around 40M and isn't direct competition. Skyscraper is direct competition but might not even open to 30M anymore. Compared to the 56M direct competition SMH had last year, that's nothing. Besides, I have it dropping 57%.

 

Mamma Mia! is not direct competition at all, and The Equalizer is targeting older men. Obviously there's some overlap with the latter but not a significant amount. Both are looking to be O/U 30M as well, so again, not major competition.

 

Mission Impossible is big direct competition, but if it already has a good hold the prior weekend, it might not stop when MI opens.

Even then Disney can do Labor Day expansions for it and has Robin for double features. Personally I’m thinking it follows Homecoming exactly (ie -59%+ drop and 2.8-2.9 multi).

[StevenG]

I am still not understanding why AM2 opened lower than Thor 2 and Dr. Strang. Thor 1 was not exactly  beloved by audiencs and AM 1 had a great multi. Is the doc really that better liked than Antman?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, StevenG said:

I am still not understanding why AM2 opened lower than Thor 2 and Dr. Strang. Thor 1 was not exactly  beloved by audiencs and AM 1 had a great multi. Is the doc really that better liked than Antman?

The Dark World had an Avengers boost, especially when Loki was the villain in that movie.

 

Doctor Strange opened in a more deserted timeframe and was also boosted by VFX that needed to be seen in large formats/3D.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, StevenG said:

I am still not understanding why AM2 opened lower than Thor 2 and Dr. Strang. Thor 1 was not exactly  beloved by audiencs and AM 1 had a great multi. Is the doc really that better liked than Antman?

#SuperheroFatigue 

[Zakiyyah6]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ant-Man forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 31.8M (107.6M Total)

Jul 13: 32.4M (19.8M weekdays, 159.8M Total)

Jul 20: 19.8M (12.5M weekdays, 192.1M Total)

Jul 27: 12.3M (7.1M weekdays, 211.5M Total)

Aug 3: 6.8M (4.3M weekdays, 222.6M Total)

Aug 10: 4.6M (2.6M weekdays, 229.8M Total)

Aug 17: 3.3M (1.9M weekdays, 235M Total)

Aug 24: 2.8M (1.3M weekdays, 239.1M Total)

Aug 31: 3.4M (1.3M weekdays, 243.8M Total)

Sep 7: 1M (300k weekdays, 245.1M Total)

Final Total: 248M (3.27x)

 

I still don't see this having a worse multi than SMH. The competition is much weaker than last July, and most of August is pretty barren. We'll see, but all this talk of it missing 200M is hilarious.

That's an extremely far fetched scenario. I can't wait until your 4.0 projection. That what's one Han Solo fan was thinking after it's lack luster weekend. I'm thinking around 2.8-ish. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Zakiyyah6

[TalismanRing]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Which is just fine. As long as the main focus remains on the hero I am all up for it. And unlike DC Marvel has been good about not shoving the stars of their own movie into the background to prop up another character in event sequels. Captain America is still 100% the star of Winter Solider. Hell, he's even still the star of Civil War despite it being more of a two hander situation. 

I think it's fine too and one of the best parts of the MCU that it allows for crossover.  No one thought The Hulk distracted from Raganork did they?  All he did was add.

 

Peyton Reed said he didn't want another crossover cameo and he's also is the one that nixed having Wasp show up first in Civil War.  He was also upset that Ant-Man went Giant in CW before he got to use that in AM.   But with this opening he's probably going to have much less say in who gets added or used where the next time.

[Rebeccas]

3 minutes ago, StevenG said:

I am still not understanding why AM2 opened lower than Thor 2 and Dr. Strang. Thor 1 was not exactly  beloved by audiencs and AM 1 had a great multi. Is the doc really that better liked than Antman?

Yes, I think the Dr. Strange concept is more interesting/cooler to GA than Antman. Thor 2 probably got the Avengers bump. That post-Avengers high was really massive.

[LonePirate]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ant-Man forecast:

<snip>

Final Total: 248M (3.27x)

Only two films this summer have achieved that multiplier: Book Club and Overboard. Tag will become the third in a few days while Ocean’s 8 is a couple of weeks away. There is nothing in its performance this weekend or in the release schedule to suggest AMATW will become the fifth film this summer to reach 3.27x. It should reach $200 M but it is not going much higher.

[ZackM]

11 minutes ago, StevenG said:

I am still not understanding why AM2 opened lower than Thor 2 and Dr. Strang. Thor 1 was not exactly  beloved by audiencs and AM 1 had a great multi. Is the doc really that better liked than Antman?

I think it's because Antman is sort of like a discount Ironman.

[YM!]

I could do another fucking MCU ranking but I’m ranking the films so far this year before I see Fallen Kingdom tonight.

 

1.) Won’t You Be My Neighbor

2.) Hereditary 

3.) Black Panther

4.) Annihilation 

5.) Incredibles 2

6.) Paddington 2

7.) Game Night

8.) Avengers: Infinity War

9.) Ready Player One

10.) Ant Man and The Wasp

11.) Tomb Raider

12.) Deadpool 2

13.) Peter Rabbit

14.) Pacific Rim: Uprising 

15.) Rampage

 

 

I need some suggestions for 2018 films that are available to watch.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, ZackM said:

I think it's because Antman is sort of like a discount Ironman.

In terms of origin story and personality - MCU Strange is more discount (deep bin discount) Iron Man

[John Marston]

25 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

HT3 will be around 40M and only has overlap with younger kids. Skyscraper is direct competition but might not even open to 30M anymore. Compared to the 56M direct competition SMH had last year, that's nothing. Besides, I have it dropping 57%.

 

Mamma Mia! is not direct competition at all, and The Equalizer is targeting older men. Obviously there's some overlap with the latter but not a significant amount. Both are looking to be O/U 30M as well, so again, not major competition, especially compared to the nearly 100M triple punch of Dunkirk, Girls Trip, and Valerian opening last year.

 

Mission Impossible is big direct competition, but if it already has a good hold the prior weekend, it might not stop when MI opens.

 

Apes last year appealed to the family audiences that likely went to SMh? Lol

[Rebeccas]

25 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Peyton Reed said he didn't want another crossover cameo and he's also is the one that nixed having Wasp show up first in Civil War.  He was also upset that Ant-Man went Giant in CW before he got to use that in AM.   But with this opening he's probably going to have much less say in who gets added or used where the next time.

Yeah, I can see his point though lol. That probably didn't help this movie when the coolest upgrade the franchise had up its sleeve was already used in another movie 2 years ago.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, Rebeccas said:

Yeah, I can see his point though lol. That probably didn't help this movie when the coolest upgrade the franchise had up its sleeve was already used in another movie 2 years ago.

But then AM being in CW gave his character a boost and let him be seen by audiences that never looked at the AM movie and going Giant was his biggest crowd pleasing moment.

[Firepower]

44 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Dark World had an Avengers boost, especially when Loki was the villain in that movie.

 

Doctor Strange opened in a more deserted timeframe and was also boosted by VFX that needed to be seen in large formats/3D.

#Excuses