MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE FALLOUT WEEKEND THREAD | 23 Friday...MM2 4.8...TT 4.25 EQ2 4.0

[pepsa]

11 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Anecdote. You need to look at more movies than just one. That is a classic mistake, you will learn once you stop defending your favorite studio as if your life depended on it.

 

Meanwhile, AntMan2 with its "great legs" will finish somewhere around #37 for all superhero movies (and again that is unadjusted). Could these mediocre performance and OW be related to the appearance of "good legs" compared to genuine blockbusters? Think about it.

 

TBF most movies that had an OD bigger than $200m had good to great legs, so big OW doesn't mean worse legs. It does depend on the hype and the impact it has on the people that saw it, and how fan driven it is.

[MrGlass2]

7 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Lol thats rich coming from the likes of you 😂

Hard to believe someone could get so triggered by one post mentioning AntMan2 had bad drops for weekend 2 and 4.

 

Edited July 30, 2018 by MrGlass2

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Hard to believe someone could get so triggered by one post mentioning AntMan2 had bad drops for weekend 2 and 4.

 

Lol pointing out actual statistic about a movies legs is being triggered in your world. Classic 

 

 

[Legion Again]

47 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Yes, for example (now, pay attention) movies released in July have smaller weekends than those released in April/May. It can lead some people to mistakenly think they have "good legs".

 

Also (take note): movies with huge OW tend to have smaller legs. Thankfully with the 35th "best" superhero opening (unadjusted), AntMan2 isn't in any danger of burning demand too fast.

“Those movies don’t really have good legs. It only looks like they have good legs because they make a higher proportion of their money after opening weekend.”  

 

 

 

[MrGlass2]

8 minutes ago, pepsa said:

TBF most movies that had an OD bigger than $200m had good to great legs, so big OW doesn't mean worse legs.

Well at the moment there are very few of those - and only 3 of them are superheroes; they would all have to be considered "events" until we get more data. But compare GOTG2 to Civil War for example (both sequels and May, one year apart).

[ZeeSoh]

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

“Those movies don’t really have good legs. It only looks like they have good legs because they make a higher proportion of their money after opening weekend.”  

 

 

 

No no its ok man. Its another giant Disney conspiracy to simply make the 10th best SH legs appear good. Its all an illusion. In reality AM2 had terrible legs. I mean did you see those 2nd and 4th weekend falls dude. Terrible. Disney should just pull the movie now and save face

[MagnarTheGreat]

Top 10 Highest 3-Day Domestic Openings	90% of Gross on Day	Multiplier (DG ÷ FW)	Domestic Gross	First Weekend	Box Office Position
Beauty and the Beast (Mar. 2017)	31	2.88	$504.0M	$174.8M	#2 (2017)
Captain America: Civil War (May 2016)	23	2.28	$408.1M	$179.1M	#3 (2016)
Incredibles 2 (Jun. 2018)*	27	3.14	$572.9M	$182.7M	#3 (2018)
Avengers: Age of Ultron (May 2015)	26	2.40	$459.0M	$191.3M	#3 (2015)
Black Panther (Feb. 2018)*	38	3.47	$700.0M	$202.0M	#1 (2018)
Marvel’s The Avengers (May 2012)	35	3.01	$623.4M	$207.4M	#1 (2012)
Jurassic World (Jun. 2015)	31	3.12	$652.3M	$208.8M	#2 (2015)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec. 2017)	23	2.82	$620.2M	$220.0M	#1 (2017)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec. 2015)	30	3.78	$936.7M	$248.0M	#1 (2015)
Avengers: Infinity War (Apr. 2018)*	30	2.63	$677.6M	$257.7M	#2 (2018)
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
numbers current as of July 29, 2018

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Well at the moment there are very few of those - and only 3 of them are superheroes; they would all have to be considered "events" until we get more data. But compare GOTG2 to Civil War for example (both sequels and May, one year apart).

Well I do think that once you get event status legs will always be pretty good. (Event status in 10 year might be more like $250m + OW. Still SH genre is by it self a pretty frontloaded genre, so movies with bad reviews and big starts are bound to fall off big time.

[dxmatrixdt]

I got Ant-Man dropping down to 5.1 next weekend, 193.7 total.

Following weekend against Meg and Slender Man, I have it dropping 50% to 2.5 and 199.3 total.

Should pass 200 before then.

207.5-210 a likely target unless it plays stronger 5 more weeks

Edited July 30, 2018 by dmatrixfilm1715

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Well I do think that once you get event status legs will always be pretty good. (Event status in 10 year might be more like $250m + OW. Still SH genre is by it self a pretty frontloaded genre, so movies with bad reviews and big starts are bound to fall off big time.

In 10 years? Surely you’ll need 300+ for event status. Low 200s is not necessarily “event” status already, in my opinion.

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

In 10 years? Surely you’ll need 300+ for event status. Low 200s is not necessarily “event” status already, in my opinion.

I don't know JW was an event, so was BP, TLJ might be the least 'event' $200m + movie. And yes maybe $300m will be the event norm. 

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

No no its ok man. Its another giant Disney conspiracy to simply make the 10th best SH legs appear good. Its all an illusion. In reality AM2 had terrible legs. I mean did you see those 2nd and 4th weekend falls dude. Terrible. Disney should just pull the movie now and save face

Sorry that the mere mention of those weekend drops sent you into a spiral of despair. Let us all pretend that AntMan2 is having a very impressive and leggy run for a superhero movie: rising from 35th "best" OW all the way to 37th "best" DOM!

[dxmatrixdt]

likely to be many sold out theaters of Ant-Man 2 on discount Tuesday

probably smaller theaters now, 50 seat capacity, 1/2 the price,

unlikely to add much more than +50% over Monday.

 

the cinemascore factor after showings this Tuesday might be spectacular, WOM spread should grow deeper, and

people will want to wait until it is convenient to see Ant-Man 2.  

no more lining up at midnight to get first dibbs at a movie.

there is more patience and reservation, movie fandom has cooled.

Edited July 30, 2018 by dmatrixfilm1715

[Hades]

8 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Sorry that the mere mention of those weekend drops sent you into a spiral of despair. Let us all pretend that AntMan2 is having a very impressive and leggy run for a superhero movie: rising from 35th "best" OW all the way to 37th "best" DOM!

They have to comfort themselves somehow...

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, pepsa said:

I don't know JW was an event, so was BP, TLJ might be the least 'event' $200m + movie. And yes maybe $300m will be the event norm. 

200 opening+ great legs definitely still signifies an event to me, but if GotG3 or JW3 or SW9 had a run of like 205/490 that wouldn’t really feel like one.

 

I’d like to at least see the DOM top 10 cracked for event status, which now requires about 535. So far nothing with a 200+ opening has missed that, but looking at adjusted numbers Age of Ultron and Spider-Man 3 had a run like that.     

 

The crazy thing is that a run of say 210/610 for SW IX next year could conceivably miss top 10. Those are the sort of numbers that would be absolutely monstrous in 2012 but are becoming a bit more commonplace 7 years later.

[MrGlass2]

13 minutes ago, dmatrixfilm1715 said:

 

the cinemascore factor after showings this Tuesday might be spectacular, WOM spread should grow deeper, and

people will want to wait until it is convenient to see Ant-Man 2.  

no more lining up at midnight to get first dibbs at a movie.

there is more patience and reservation, movie fandom has cooled.

AntMan2 is having bad weekend drops, but average weekly drops. That may reflect the rise of the cheap Tuesday, because it means weekday drops are great (perhaps carried by Tuesdays, I haven't checked).

[Premium George]

AM&W will have 2.8x legs and they are bad? Have DC fans lost all common sense?

[cookie]

2 hours ago, MrGlass2 said:

AntMan2 had the worst drop of all 'Marvel First Sequels' in weekend 2 and 4:

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=weekend&id=marvelsequels.htm

 

(And of course, the worst OW as well)

 

I mean if we're going to use skewed comparisons like this (four out of five of those were on holiday weekends even)...

 

Second best third weekend drop

 

3

$38,859,900 5-17-15 / 3 4,276 / $9,088 -50% $372,030,708

$25,587,056 4-20-14 / 1 3,825 / $6,689 -38% $200,501,510

$26,361,258 5-23-10 / 2 4,177 / $6,311 -49.3% $251,026,061

$14,196,302 11-24-13 / 2 3,713 / $3,823 -61.2% $167,917,123

$34,653,754 5-21-17 / 2 4,347 / $7,972 -46.9% $301,391,228

$16,507,156 7-22-18 / 4 3,778 / $4,369 -43.3% $165,005,448

 

 

Strong chance at best overall fifth weekend drop

 

5

$11,401,402 5-31-15 / 5 3,228 / $3,532 -47.4% $427,551,427

$7,774,269 5-4-14 / 4 3,179 / $2,446 -52.1% $237,155,480

$7,918,708 6-6-10 / 7 3,007 / $2,633 -51.9% $291,429,870

$4,811,545 12-8-13 / 4 3,074 / $1,565 -56.6% $193,711,187

$9,839,370 6-4-17 / 4 3,507 / $2,806 -52.9% $355,580,702

-

[MrGlass2]

July superhero movies DOM and OW, for OWs closest to AntMan2:

9	7	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$448,139,099	4,404	$160,887,295	4,404	7/20/12
10	5	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	4,366	$158,411,483	4,366	7/18/08

18

16

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Sony

$334,201,140

4,348

$117,027,503

4,348

7/7/17

35

43

Ant-Man and the Wasp

BV

$183,490,227

4,206

$75,812,205

4,206

7/6/18

40

47

Captain America: The First Avenger

Par.

$176,654,505

3,715

$65,058,524

3,715

7/22/11

41

33

Hancock

Sony

$227,946,274

3,965

$62,603,879

3,965

7/2/08

45

45

Ant-Man

BV

$180,202,163

3,868

$57,225,526

3,856

7/17/15

 

"Great legs" everywhere... almost as if July had an effect on the box office pattern.

[DAJK]

MI6 was fucking awesome and deserves to make as much as it can