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CaptainJackSparrow

The Lion King OS Thread

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we need to see the trailer before and it must be good. It has huge potential but it need to be as good or better as the Jungle Book. The problem is that The Lion King is such an amazing movie that it will be compared to it so if it's just ok it may be seen as a bad movie. i hope Disney do it right. If its amazing this can be one of the biggest movies of all time adjusted to inflation.

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Apparently, reception to the trailer is very good in China. Over $1 billion OS seems likely, but how much higher can it go? 

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TJB was 430 OS-Ch-Japan

BATB was 563 OS-Ch-Japan

TLK 750 OS-Ch-Japan

 

285 Ch + 65 Japan = 350 Ch+Japan

(Gavin said in the China thread that if TLK gets a summer release there, 2000 Yuan is possible. That's 288 using today's ER.)

 

750 + 350 = 1100 OS

Edited by a2k
I am flip-flopping

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Japan is a total wildcard. The live-action remakes have ranged from the Jungle Book (¥2.21 billion) to Beauty and the Beast (¥12.40 billion). Hopefully, the Lion King can hit the upper end of this range. 

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4 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Japan is a total wildcard. The live-action remakes have ranged from the Jungle Book (¥2.21 billion) to Beauty and the Beast (¥12.40 billion). Hopefully, the Lion King can hit the upper end of this range. 

If TJB didn’t outright flop in Japan...it would have gone over $1B WW. What were the japanese audience thinking?

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22 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

If TJB didn’t outright flop in Japan...it would have gone over $1B WW. What were the japanese audience thinking?

I was very surprised by how low its gross was too. From what I understand, it faced strong competition from Secret Life of Pets and Your Name that summer. Also, the film didn't appeal to women or families as much. The Lion King seems like it will be cuter and more musically inclined than the Jungle Book, so I think that will help with its appeal in Japan.

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I feel like this could go either way, like be just another film, or it could be totally crazy.

As I think what it gross in China could be just $40M or $300M.

Same goes for Japan, it could either gross just around TJB or B&tB.

In the UK, if the pound doesn't lose too much value over the next year it could be pretty impressive.

Germany could go either way too, the other live actions films were big, but I kinda hope that TLK could be nearly as big as TFA.

So in the end, I guess it could got over 1.3B OS

 

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Been a long time since this thread got used. I'm trying to shore up my club (TLK over Titanic worldwide) and was curious what everyone thought for the major OS markets? Below is what I'm hoping for, but would appreciate some insight from the experts in the regions listed and in markets I'm not familiar with (Argentina, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines, etc etc)

 

China -- $300m
UK -- $100m

France -- $75m

Germany -- $70m

Japan -- $60m

Mexico -- $50m
Brazil -- $45m

South Korea -- $45m
Australia -- $45m

Russia -- $35m

India -- $30m
Italy -- $30m
Spain -- $30m 

 

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3 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Been a long time since this thread got used. I'm trying to shore up my club (TLK over Titanic worldwide) and was curious what everyone thought for the major OS markets? Below is what I'm hoping for, but would appreciate some insight from the experts in the regions listed and in markets I'm not familiar with (Argentina, Malaysia, Taiwan, Philippines, etc etc)

 

China -- $300m OK
UK -- $100m OK

France -- $75m really optimistic

Germany -- $70m really optimistic 

Japan -- $60m too low

Mexico -- $50m nope
Brazil -- $45m possible

South Korea -- $45m OK
Australia -- $45m OK

Russia -- $35m 

India -- $30m something like 35-40M
Italy -- $30m OK
Spain -- $30m 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 


Yea I'm least confident about France and Germany, but I'm hoping for a Star Wars like performance there (TLJ did $147m combined). I know the original Lion King is massive in Europe. 

Japan was the big wildcard for me. That market is hard to gauge. Maybe harder than China. I could see it doing $50m or $150m. 

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6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

So this movie has a better chance to unseat Titanic ? 


In my opinion, it has the best chance of any movie this year. 

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Argentina could do 12-15m if ER manage to not collapse again at some point between now and LK run (highly unlikely if I'm being honest).

 

That would require 3m admissions and top ten of all time but last year both Coco and Incredibles 2 did it and TLK has a Winter Holidays release date which basically guarantees it will be a huge hit. 

 

 

If you want to get really optimistic 17-20m can happen with over 4m admissions but that's way more hard and I have 0 faith in the ER

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Just now, salvador-232 said:

Argentina could do 12-15m if ER manage to not collapse again at some point between now and LK run (highly unlikely if I'm being honest).

 

That would require 3m admissions and top ten of all time but last year both Coco and Incredibles 2 did it and TLK has a Winter Holidays release date which basically guarantees it will be a huge hit. 

 

 

If you want to get really optimistic 17-20m can happen with over 4m admissions but that's way more hard and I have 0 faith in the ER


Thanks for the analysis. I know essentially very little about perception of TLK in Latin America, or how steady ER is (though I know it does fluctuate a bit.) A quick look tells me it has dropped quite a bit since Incredibles 2, and it would take $600m lc to get to $15m USD. 

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1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:


Thanks for the analysis. I know essentially very little about perception of TLK in Latin America, or how steady ER is (though I know it does fluctuate a bit.) A quick look tells me it has dropped quite a bit since Incredibles 2, and it would take $600m lc to get to $15m USD. 

Argentina is a very special case in that's it has had very high inflation and the ER had been in a steady decline for years. 

 

However, until 2017 the inflation of tickets prices compensated the constant fall of the ER. That changed last year when the local currency depreciated at 2x the inflation rate and now Argentina is much smaller in dollars. 

 

Furthermore, monetary policies of the Argentinean Central Bank make very hard for the inflation to catch up with ER. 

 

Argentina economy right now is in crisis and the ER is very unstable and any political or commodity circumstances could make it to collapse again 

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India, more likely $20mn. Though it's unlikely but TJB numbers won't surprise me.

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