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CaptainJackSparrow

The Lion King OS Thread

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Honestly, if i really have to range it: 0.8 - 1.3B OS lmao.

 

Anyway, as for personal feelings and after some rough calculations: 1.0B (200M from China, give or take some)

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10 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Honestly, if i really have to range it: 0.8 - 1.3B OS lmao.

 

Anyway, as for personal feelings and after some rough calculations: 1.0B (200M from China, give or take some)

1.6-1.7 realistic with 2 billion being on the high end

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4 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

¥25mn plus OD pre-sales. Expecting ¥100mn OD for TLK and ¥400mn weekend or higher depending on score. 

400mn would be roughly $58m OW. Hopefully we get that 9+ rating.

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I really hope the movie is good, because that Hakuna matata clip got me worried about its quality and box office.

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On 7/6/2019 at 10:42 PM, salvador-232 said:

You want to see more insanity? 

 

The Lion King presales, 12 before release, 17% of the market. 

 

116 showtimes for OD | 27935 seats available | 1156 tickets sold. 

 

The Lion King is outpacing Captain Marvel in term of presales (CM had sold 1095 tickets 8 days before release), its showtime and seat count are also very similar 

 

This is just getting ridiculous. We have a third potential 15m grosser when Chile had never had any before this year. I honestly can't see how 2020 could top this year.

 

Chile, as of 5 days ago. 

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I'm thinking in the 800-900m range.  

Plus ~550 domestic, 1400 total.

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5 hours ago, Apollo2xx said:

I really hope the movie is good, because that Hakuna matata clip got me worried about its quality and box office.

 

The reaction of the Hakuna Matata clip is shockingly similar to the reactions people had at the Prince Ali clip for Aladdin that was released.

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I see this movie doing JWs ww range with higher domestic portion 

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2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

1.1/1.2B OS

 

TLK will be huuuuge in Europe

any info ? or just feeling ? 

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1 minute ago, john2000 said:

any info ? or just feeling ? 

Personal opinion. Right now the most realistic scenario is 850-950M OS 

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I’ve copied and pasted myself from the NZ thread.

 

My first time doing this so please take it easy, first of all up to 28 screenings which is a lot, hard to compare to midnight releases like SW and HP films that are popular over here as those are midnight releases. That being said this seems to be similar to the two most recent Avengers films although I don’t have numbers. 

 

Sales seem pretty good and I’ll probably do this at 10pm on Tuesday night 12 hours before the first showings.

 

The Lion King Opening Day (Wed 17/07/2019) - Albany Cinemas 

 

10:00am 69/288

10:00am GC 15/40

10:30am 68/364

10:30am GC 7/30

11:00am 35/216

11:50am 3D 37/216

12:40pm GC 3D 26/40

12:45pm 56/288

1:15pm 34/364

1:15pm GC 18/30

1:40pm 9/216

2:30pm 25/216

3:30pm 23/288

3:30pm GC 8/40

4:00pm 22/364

4:00pm GC 12/30

4:20pm 15/216

5:15pm 3D 27/216

6:10pm GC 37/40

6:15pm 73/288

6:40pm GC 30/30

6:45pm 42/364

7:00pm 100/216

8:00pm 55/216

8:50pm GC 34/40

9:00pm 21/288

9:20pm GC 8/30

9.25pm 20/364

 

Total 926/5338 (17.34%)

 

GC = Gold Class 

 

Ticket Prices (all local prices NZD) 

2D $20.50

3D $23.50

GC $37

GC 3D $37

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Opening weekend in China will be just under $55m USD.

 

Disney Remake OW Comps

Jungle Book - $48.9m 

Beauty and the Beast - $44.5m

Aladdin - $18.6m

 

TJB and Aladdin both went on to do about 3x OW with a similar rating to TLK 

BATB did about 2x OW but only has an 8.2 rating

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12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Opening weekend in China will be just under $55m USD.

 

Disney Remake OW Comps

Jungle Book - $48.9m 

Beauty and the Beast - $44.5m

Aladdin - $18.6m

 

TJB and Aladdin both went on to do about 3x OW with a similar rating to TLK 

BATB did about 2x OW but only has an 8.2 rating

So $155 M+ life time numbers in China for TLK with 3x ...

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Jungle book opened in April where there was less pressure on screens. Aladdin numbers were small. I want to see couple of strong weekdays before talking about 3x multi.

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Copy and pasted from NZ thread. 

 

The Lion King Opening Day (Wed 17/07/2019) - Albany Cinemas 

(12 hours before open)

 

10:00am 117/288

10:00am GC 29/40

10:30am 128/364

10:30am GC 23/30

11:00am 118/216

11:50am 3D 66/216

12:40pm GC 3D 35/40

12:45pm 108/288

1:15pm 97/364

1:15pm GC 27/30

1:40pm 46/216

2:30pm 63/216

3:30pm 35/288

3:30pm GC 30/40

4:00pm 34/364

4:00pm GC 22/30

4:20pm 40/216

5:15pm 3D 51/216

6:10pm GC 37/40

6:15pm 122/288

6:40pm GC 30/30

6:45pm 130/364

7:00pm 134/216

7:30pm  87/216

8:00pm 87/216

8:50pm GC 40/40

9:00pm 37/288

9:20pm GC 30/30

9.25pm 28/364

 

Total 1831/5554 (32.96%)

 

1 showing added since Sunday (216 more seats)

 

905 more tickets sold since Sunday 

 

Still lots of room for walk ups but a nice increase of the last few days. I’m going to the 10am screening, so will let you know how much more it filled up and also audience response. 

 

It’s my first time doing this but Albany is a decent amount of the NZ market (my guess is 5-10%) I’ve averaged the tickets down to $20 due to children and student prices. Already over $36,000 from opening day in Albany I think it will translate to an Opening Weekend of roughly $2.5m NZD/$1.7m USD. I’m probably very far off the mark, it will likely get easier to predict as I do more movies like this and work out a formula and get some good comps. 

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just as I thought its not having 3x run in china. Dropped 15% on tuesday. Looking at 100m finish which is rock solid. Korea PS looks promising. let us see how the run is. Also Europe/ANZ/LA all look good as well. @baumer club looks like a fail unless it has BvS WOM which is unlikely despite middling reviews.

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It's doing incredible numbers in Sweden for opening day. If it in any way can sustain this over the first five days it should clear 300k tickets.

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