Weekend Thread: | Estimates (per BOM) ~ M:I-F 35M, DCR 25.003M, TSWDM 12.35M, MM!HWGA 9.09M, TE2 8.83M, HT3:SV 8.2M, AMatW 6.188M, TDM 5.8M

[grim22]

47 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I honestly forgot that movie even existed lol.

It had the worst release timing ever. A very political focused movie which came out literally a week after the worst election season in history.

[TwoMisfits]

Data on Christopher Robin - it IS the Wrinkle in Time audience...from Deadline...best summary is 55% non-family adults, 45% families (so it is appealing more that to adults than families, at least through Friday).  And it's prime family audience is mom with her 7-12 year old girls (being 67% of all kids just in this small age slice - dang - must be leaving the dad and the brothers at home:)... 

 

"ComScore/Screen Engine PostTrak showed 55% general, 30% kids, and 15% parents last night, with females of all ages leading the way at 59% (CinemaScore showed 63%). More moms than dads are turning out, 62% to 38%, while among kids, girls 7-9 are strong at 35%, followed by girls 10-12 at 32%. What’s clear is that, small children aside, the weekly opening for Christopher Robin will easily outstrip the entire global cume of the last animated take on the bear-stuffed-with-fluff seven years ago, Winnie the Pooh, which only made $33.1M. So, right there, it shows that there’s a mainstream interest here for Disney’s Hook-take on Pooh."

Edited August 4, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[Wrath]

On 8/3/2018 at 10:25 AM, That One Guy said:

In the theater for Christopher Robin.  There are other people in the theater which upsets me.  I wanted to cry in peace but I’ll just be that weird guy who sits in the back corner now

So, you’re saying that you’re going to be That One Guy?

[MagnarTheGreat]

For the curious...

 

	Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec. 2017)	Incredibles 2* (Jun. 2018)	I2 % change From SW:TLJ
Week 1	$296,602,356	$269,446,690	-9.16%
Week 2	$168,095,872	$124,736,824	-25.79%
Week 3	$84,264,374	$81,177,900	-3.66%
Week 4	$31,311,982	$44,237,078	41.28%
Week 5	$17,443,892	$26,216,948	50.29%
Week 6	$8,823,345	$19,808,208	124.50%
Week 7	$5,574,959	$12,508,642	124.37%
Domestic gross on Day 49	$612,116,780	$578,132,290
Multiplier on Day 49	2.78**	3.16
90% of domestic gross On Day	23	29
* still in theaters
** final gross multiplier: 2.82

 

	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Incredibles 2*	SW:TLJ – I2 (gap)
Week 1 cume	$296,602,356	$269,446,690	$27,155,666
Week 2 cume	$464,698,228	$394,183,514	$70,514,714
Week 3 cume	$548,962,602	$475,361,414	$73,601,188
Week 4 cume	$580,274,584	$519,598,492	$60,676,092
Week 5 cume	$597,718,476	$545,815,440	$51,903,036
Week 6 cume	$606,541,821	$565,623,648	$40,918,173
Week 7 cume	$612,116,780	$578,132,290	$33,984,490

 

Additionally Incredibles 2 would need a multiplier of 3.39x and 90% of its dom. gross in 39 days to match TLJ's final domestic gross of $620,181,382; it would have to earn at least $42M more for itself for the rest of its run during the time TLJ earned $8M more for itself. Dory only earned $14.3M more for itself and as of Week 7 I2 is running 75.64% ahead of it that week (($14.3M + 75.64%) + I2 Week 7 cume = $603M). It would have to do way better than that, like 193.7% better.

Edited August 5, 2018 by MagnarTheGreat

[baumer]

After reading some of the tweets from the guy who wrote The Spy Who dumped me I'm happy that he got his film off the ground and I'm sure it's a dream come true for him. Having said that the movie is all kinds of awful. It is completely discombobulated and the worst thing about it is that it's not funny in the least.

[ban1o]

blindpostting would probably do better overseas than Sorry to bother you but based on it's domestic grosses Idt it will be released overseas 

[75Live]

22 minutes ago, baumer said:

 Having said that the movie is all kinds of awful. It is completely discombobulated and the worst thing about it is that it's not funny in the least.

 

so basically the trailer was 100% accurate then

 

at least I have the Meg coming out next week and hoping that it is just some crazy fun

[sfran43]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

After reading some of the tweets from the guy who wrote The Spy Who dumped me I'm happy that he got his film off the ground and I'm sure it's a dream come true for him. Having said that the movie is all kinds of awful. It is completely discombobulated and the worst thing about it is that it's not funny in the least.

No wonder every trailer I saw for this movie looks so terrible! They really had no good scenes to use to sell this piece of turd!

[Barnack]

4 hours ago, babz06 said:

sorry to bother you is having trouble getting released overseas. I thought things were improving after Black Panther...

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/sorry-bother-you-director-boots-riley-blasts-foreign-distributors-refusing-carry-a-black-movie-1132252?utm_source=twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

That is sad it is quite the nice satire, would it had broke out in the US it would have got some market. People talk often about stars being irrelevant, but for movies like that specially for Intl sales it would have helped a lot, they can be almost needed.

 

Has for being an American story/reference + black cast, not sure how true it is or more accurately how much it is about american centric story / regional reference than the cast being black.

 

I Can only imagine made over 80 in the US and didn't even tracked it's intl box office on mojo, release in very few markets and did about 2m intl according to the-numbers.com and that looked very white, same for a Moneyball type movie even with Brad Pitt if it is about Baseball it will be domestic heavy.

 

In the 2010 if we look at big successfull domestic movie (over 100m domestic), the 10 that played the most domestic heavy were:

 

Straight Outta Compton	Uni.	$201.60	$161.20	79.90%	$40.40	20.10%	2015
The Help	BV	$216.60	$169.70	78.30%	$46.90	21.70%	2011
Hidden Figures	Fox	$236.00	$169.60	71.90%	$66.30	28.10%	2016
The Heat	Fox	$229.90	$159.60	69.40%	$70.30	30.60%	2013
Get Out	Uni.	$255.50	$176.00	68.90%	$79.40	31.10%	2017
21 Jump Street	Sony	$201.60	$138.40	68.70%	$63.10	31.30%	2012
True Grit	Par.	$252.30	$171.20	67.90%	$81.00	32.10%	2010
Lincoln	BV	$275.30	$182.20	66.20%	$93.10	33.80%	2012
Pitch Perfect 2	Uni.	$287.50	$184.30	64.10%	$103.20	35.90%	2015
American Sniper	WB	$547.40	$350.10	64.00%	$197.30	36.00%	2014

 

Lot of them were really American story with reference that can be hard to have a punch in most market outside the US.

 

If a intl buyer is using Get out for example has a comparable trying to make projection (69%/31%), he think that Sorry to bother you will do about 6m intl with in their mind no chance of breaking out because of the narrative style. Could be hard to agree on a price.

 

12 year's slave / Moonlight played very well intl, 12 year's had a lot of intl star powers and for both obviously a best picture win help a lot.

Edited August 5, 2018 by Barnack

[aabattery]

I can't prove this at all but I feel like Get Out would have done better overseas if it was released concurrently with the US date. It didn't come out till May here, which was just ridiculous. I imagine a similar thing happened in other countries.

[AJG]

Just now, aabattery said:

I can't prove this at all but I feel like Get Out would have done better overseas if it was released concurrently with the US date. It didn't come out till May here, which was just ridiculous. I imagine a similar thing happened in other countries.

 

The HD copy leaked online a couple days before it’s release in the UK. Because of that nobody wanted to go cinema and watch it with me, we all just came together and watched it on TV (which was fun, but still...).

 

Looking back, you’re right. The movie did well over here, but it could’ve done much much more.

 

 

 

[Rebeccas]

5 hours ago, babz06 said:

That doesn’t stop hundreds of other specialty releases with “limited” commercial appeal from getting released overseas. Moonlight made 37m internationally, more than cinema classics like Rough Night and Downsizing.. it’s a weak excuse at this point to say “black films” don’t sell.

Yeah, a film with Oscar buzz and ended up winning Best Picture has clear advantages obviously. That's not really the case for most indie films, even ones that have good Sundance buzz like did Me Earl and the Dying Girl, The Diary of a Teenage Girl  or Beatriz at Dinner get a big international release? 

[dxmatrixdt]

I drew up these estimates with around 30-50% Sat increases... Sunday not much over Friday

did the % decline for the per theater average

 

4,395 - Mission 6 -39.0% - 33.75 - 123.24

3,602 - C. Robin - new - 27.00 

3,111 - Spy/Dumped - new - 13.75

3,359 - Mamma Mia -34.2% - 9.50 - 91.74

2,725 - Equalizer 2 -24.6% - 8.50 - 79.56

3,162 - Hotel Tran 3 -17.3% - 8.00 - 136.26

3,127 - Darkest Minds - new - 6.25 

2,233 - Ant-Man -3.8% - 6.25 - 195.53

1,802 - Incredibles - same - 5.00 - 583.13

3,188 - Teen Titans -46.9% - 5.00 - 20.92

1,914 - Jurassic World -20.2% - 3.83 - 405.44

1,084 - Eighth Grade -67.3% - 3.00 - 6.71

1,005 - Death of a Nation - new - 3.00 

1,523 - Skyscraper -25.0% - 2.20 - 64.43

708 - First Purge -17.9% - 0.92 - 67.76

404 - Bother +9.8% - 0.76 - 14.87

523 - Blindspotting -47.7% - 0.67 - 3.18

196 - Deadpool +125% - 0.46 - 318.30

284 - Neighbor - same - 0.43 - 20.97

216 - Sicario +33.7% - 0.34 - 49.41

248 - Oceans 8 - same - 0.30 - 138.03

205 - Avengers -12.2% - 0.25 - 678.07

202 - Uncle Drew +10% - 0.20 - 41.89

200 - Solo +8.6% - 0.20 - 213.04

208 - Unfriended - same - 0.20 - 8.61

202 - Tag - same - 0.18 - 53.91

71 - Hereditary - same - 70k - 43.90

91 - Book Club +16.5% - 60k - 68.54

- 39,987 theater counts.

 

WB should get Meg in 4,000 by the looks of it

Sony/Screen Gems -  Slender Man in at 2,000+, if its a dud, then the final count would probably be closer to 2500 than 3000.

Focus Features - Black Klansman is at 1,500 now instead of opening limited.  It will likely capitalize on this and could go more.

Dog Days opens in 2,500 on Wednesday.  perhaps LD Entertainment finds reason to push it closer to 3,000.

next weekend should probably drop 8,000 theater counts from above by the looks of it.  All the indie films should probably stay the same and move around counties.  Slender Man will likely take as many openings as possible pushing the net theater counts to 41,000 next weekend.  

 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Rebeccas said:

That's not really the case for most indie films, even ones that have good Sundance buzz like did Me Earl and the Dying Girl, The Diary of a Teenage Girl  or Beatriz at Dinner get a big international release? 

The 2 that got bought by majors that use their big studio international reach and distribute in many market themselves got not so bad one for what they were, the indie distributed Beatriz at Dinner got almost no intl buyers.

[Joyous Legion]

220+ is starting to look pretty real for AM&tW. Below where I hoped in June, but better than I was thinking on its first week.

Edited August 5, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[DeWeese]

5 hours ago, Wrath said:

So, you’re saying that you’re going to be That One Guy?

Aren’t we all

[dxmatrixdt]

LD Entertainment putting Dog Days out on Wednesday in 2500 theaters or more.

Average purchases per venue looked like this on last Wednesday.

This Wednesday, applying % declines could give these numbers.

w/ top 5 looking like 

Spoiler

1. Mission 6

2. Robin

3. Spy/Dumped

4. Mamma Mia

5. EQ2/HT3

 

Dog Days???

156 - Mission Impossible - 95

        - Christopher Robin - 95

        - Spy Who Dumped - 60

        - Darkest Minds - 27
143 - Eighth Grade - 50 
91 - Mamma Mia - 60
51- Equalizer - 38
63 - Hotel Tran - 50
51 - Ant-Man - 48 
56 - Incredibles - 55
44 - Teen Titans - 25
42 - Jurassic - 34
31 - Skyscraper - 23
27 - Purge - 22
30 - Bother - 33
39 - Blindspotting - 22
17 - Deadpool - 34
17 - Sicario - 22
23 - Avengers - 20
16 - Uncle - 18
19 - Solo - 21
 

[Joyous Legion]

5 hours ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

For the curious...

 

	Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec. 2017)	Incredibles 2* (Jun. 2018)	I2 % change From SW:TLJ
Week 1	$296,602,356	$269,446,690	-9.16%
Week 2	$168,095,872	$124,736,824	-25.79%
Week 3	$84,264,374	$81,177,900	-3.66%
Week 4	$31,311,982	$44,237,078	41.28%
Week 5	$17,443,892	$26,216,948	50.29%
Week 6	$8,823,345	$19,808,208	124.50%
Week 7	$5,574,959	$12,508,642	124.37%
Domestic gross on Day 49	$612,116,780	$578,132,290
Multiplier on Day 49	2.78**	3.16
90% of domestic gross On Day	23	29
* still in theaters
** final gross multiplier: 2.82

 

	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Incredibles 2*	SW:TLJ – I2 (gap)
Week 1 cume	$296,602,356	$269,446,690	$27,155,666
Week 2 cume	$464,698,228	$394,183,514	$70,514,714
Week 3 cume	$548,962,602	$475,361,414	$73,601,188
Week 4 cume	$580,274,584	$519,598,492	$60,676,092
Week 5 cume	$597,718,476	$545,815,440	$51,903,036
Week 6 cume	$606,541,821	$565,623,648	$40,918,173
Week 7 cume	$612,116,780	$578,132,290	$33,984,490

 

Additionally Incredibles 2 would need a multiplier of 3.39x and 90% of its dom. gross in 39 days to match TLJ's final domestic gross of $620,181,382; it would have to earn at least $42M more for itself for the rest of its run during the time TLJ earned $8M more for itself. Dory only earned $14.3M more for itself and as of Week 7 I2 is running 75.64% ahead of it that week (($14.3M + 75.64%) + I2 Week 7 cume = $603M). It would have to do way better than that, like 193.7% better.

Outside of Rth, who is on another level, I feel like you might have the highest average level of post quality that I can recall on this site.

 

How to you construct these tables, out of curiosity? Do you have a process to import the numbers from BOM, or just enter things by hand?     

 

I'd very much appreciate one for Logan and AM&tW after its 5th or 6th week.

 

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, aabattery said:

I can't prove this at all but I feel like Get Out would have done better overseas if it was released concurrently with the US date. 

Prove it. 

[aabattery]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Prove it. 

 

Well, I won tickets to an 'early' screening of Get Out (early being April), which means I didn't pay to see the movie. If it had been released in February like it was in the states, there would be no contest for that early screening and I would have had to pay for a ticket.

 

That's ten dollars gone from Universal's pockets, like a turd in the wind. Get Out ended up at $255,457,364 worldwide and if they'd just had released it earlier in New Zealand it would be sitting at $255,457,374.