Weekend Thread: Hunter Killer - $420K preview

[Ryan Reynolds]

	1	Halloween	Uni/Mmax/Blum	3,990 (+62)	$10.3M (-69%)	$33.6M (-56%)	$128.2M	2
	2	A Star Is Born	WB	3,904 (+20)	$4M (-29%)	$13.9M (-27%)	$148.4M	4
	3	Venom	Sony	3,567 (-320)	$2.8M (-45%)	$9.9M (-45%)	$186.3M	4
	4	Hunter Killer	LG/Mill	2,720	$2.5M	$6.9M	$6.9M	1
	5	Goosebumps 2	Sony	3,723 (+202)	$1.7M (-32%)	$6.6M (-32%)	$37.4M	3
	6	The Hate U Give	Fox	2,375 (+72)	$1.4M (-42%)	$4.5M (-40%)	$17.7M	4
	7	First Man	Uni/DW	2,959 (-681)	$1.3M (-47%)	$4.4M (-47%)	$37.3M	3
	8	Smallfoot	WB	2,662 (-370)	$1M (-36%)	$4.1M (-36%)	$72M	5
	9	Night School	Uni	1,991 (-305)	$864K (-39%)	$3M (-39%)	$71.2M	5
	10	Mid90s	A24	1,206 (+1,202)	$1M (+920%)	$2.8M (+985%)	$3.1M	2

Edited October 27, 2018 by Ryan Reynolds

[KeepItU25071906]

last Goosepumps Friday's jump:  +260%, +273%

 

last Smallfoot Friday's jump: +194%, +179% (without any new rivals)

 

This is a shame WAG, again. You make a cartoon which even doesn't work enough for families 

[The Gotham Bank]

Why do you guys think -56% is great for Halloween? Under normal circumstances, I'd say that's a very good drop, but with Halloween around the corner? I expected a bit better ... maybe I'm overestimating or misunderstanding the effect of Halloween ( the holiday ) on the box office. 

[a2k]

9.9 projection seems fair for Venom

 

2.80

4.37 (+56%)

2.71 (-38%)

= 9.88

 

Adding 2-2.5x the weekend to it's cume (186.3) gets it to 206-211 dom (2.57-2.63x multi)

[Krissykins]

7 hours ago, Shawn said:

 

 

@terrestrialnailed it.

 

To clarify, these numbers are not "guesses" but are derived from Boxoffice's tracking models. Granted, interpretation of any variable data is up to mere mortals (like all forms of tracking you read about, no matter how definitive it comes across).

 

If you read the report, Aquaman's range extends up to as much as $60 million based on what we're seeing -- which would be a pretty big start for a December release that won't be as front-loaded as most comic book movies tend to be when opening at other points in the year.

 

Our goal is only to report what the data shows up to that point with as little bias as possible. I generally like to err on the side of caution with movies that show any signs of vulnerability or marketplace disadvantage because businesses make decisions based on those figures, and it's always better to under-project than the alternative. That's why we add written analysis for fuller context.

 

 

 

(Still love you though,  @Krissykins)

Thank you for the great explanation @Shawn, you deserved that mic drop too lol 

[Krissykins]

Looking like another Fantastic weekend for Halloween. Under 60% is impressive for a film like this. Should do well Monday-Wednesday before a steep drop next weekend when October is over. 

 

Again, insane for A Star Is Born.

 

I wonder how Suspiria did 

Edited October 27, 2018 by Krissykins

[DAJK]

54 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

last Goosepumps Friday's jump:  +260%, +273%

 

last Smallfoot Friday's jump: +194%, +179% (without any new rivals)

 

This is a shame WAG, again. You make a cartoon which even doesn't work enough for families 

The movie's had really great holds, there's nothing disappointing about its run at all really. Not sure why you decide to focus on an obscure number that has very little to do with its overall run, in order to make it look bad

[KeepItU25071906]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The movie's had really great holds

First of all: -37,5% and -37% aren't great holds for the cartoon, especially without any buzz. Second- OW was too small and nedded much better recovery.

Edited October 27, 2018 by KeepItU25071906

[WrathOfHan]

First Man is the flop of the fall, isn’t it?

[a2k]

22 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The movie's had really great holds, there's nothing disappointing about its run at all really. Not sure why you decide to focus on an obscure number that has very little to do with its overall run, in order to make it look bad

I agree. Smallfoot will get to 81 dom if not more. That's 3.5x multiplier.

Goose2's ow was 15.8, so needs 55+ to match Smallfoot's legs. Looking at 3.2-3.3x/50-52 dom imo.

 

Goose2 itself is a good hit and a success, just that the Friday bump focus is incomplete.

Edited October 27, 2018 by a2k

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The movie's had really great holds, there's nothing disappointing about its run at all really. Not sure why you decide to focus on an obscure number that has very little to do with its overall run, in order to make it look bad

It’s not doing very well for an animated kids film though. Wasn’t this released in like 4100 cinemas? 

[terrestrial]

16 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 Wasn’t this released in like 4100 cinemas? 

yes (theater count 4,131)

[Krissykins]

Someone pointed out in the U.K. thread that Greatest Showman, A Star Is Born and Mamma Mia together are outgrossing Infinity War, Black Panther and Ant Man 2 combined. 

 

Amazing. 

[MCKillswitch123]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Someone pointed out in the U.K. thread that Greatest Showman, A Star Is Born and Mamma Mia together are outgrossing Infinity War, Black Panther and Ant Man 2 combined. 

 

Amazing. 

Damn, the UK sure loves them musicals quite a bit. The Lion King is going to shatter records over there, I reckon.

[Valonqar]

Never doubted that Halloween would hold well. 

 

Hopefully  manages 10M. 

 

ASIB is a leggy beast as everyone knew it would be. It should chug along nicely as we are entering awards season and it'll pick up noms and wins along the way. 

 

[Brainbug]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

First Man is the flop of the fall, isn’t it?

 

Yeah it kinda is.

 

-56% for Halloween would be great, considering the general frontloading of the (slasher) genre and the rush factor with the Thursday previews.

[DAR]

Nothing drives a weekend thread like a new Gerard Butler flick 

[Eric Duncan]

6 hours ago, The Gotham Bank said:

Why do you guys think -56% is great for Halloween? Under normal circumstances, I'd say that's a very good drop, but with Halloween around the corner? I expected a bit better ... maybe I'm overestimating or misunderstanding the effect of Halloween ( the holiday ) on the box office. 

It's a slasher film, which historically have weak legs. If anything, the fact it didn't drop in the 60s like Happy Death Day and Scream 4 is pretty impressive.

 

Anyway, Mid90s wide number is about the same as Eighth Grade when it went into 1,000 theathers (albeit ~200 less than Mid90s). Not bad for a movie that had less hype and a weaker PTA.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, The Gotham Bank said:

Why do you guys think -56% is great for Halloween? Under normal circumstances, I'd say that's a very good drop, but with Halloween around the corner? I expected a bit better ... maybe I'm overestimating or misunderstanding the effect of Halloween ( the holiday ) on the box office. 

The Halloween effect doesn't take place until the day of Halloween.

[MCKillswitch123]

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

First Man is the flop of the fall, isn’t it?

Possibly. It's between this and The Predator, but this may be a bigger one all things considered as the budget is not much smaller but it probably won't even hit 100M WW. The Girl In The Spider's Web isn't looking that good either, but I doubt it will be as big a write-off as Predator or First Man (hell, it might not be a write-off at all; OS could rescue it, and its budget is half of Dragon Tattoo's, so maybe it gets past the disaster point safely).

 

On the plus side, it seems like the last one too. This new  movie is probably gonna do well OS. Though I'm a little worried about The Hate U Give, as it may top out DOM at around 30M and it won't do well OS... on a budget of 23M. But that should hardly be much of a money loss for Fox regardless.

 

This has been a dope fall season, actually. Unlike past falls where it was bomb and disappointment after bomb and disappointment. Even September had The Nun, The House, Smallfoot and Night School all doing great or solidly.

Edited October 27, 2018 by MCKillswitch123