Dec 21-23 Weekend Thread | Sat#'s (Asgard pg 60) - Aqua 21.8, MPR 8.8, BB 7.2, SMSV 6.9, Mule 3.8 | Discuss Pitbull's musical work here

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

 

4.5 was from China, so about 14.5 from the rest of the markets. China to add another 16 over the weekend and the other markets should get 40-45M at least. Should be over 400M OS and around 480M WW Sunday. Most likely 550+ by Christmas and touching 800 by the end of the holiday stretch.

[filmlover]

Just now, MrGlass2 said:

Are you doing a Deadline, and getting confused about the pre-previews?

What is the exact breakdown of the previews? 

[Ms Lady Hawk]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, I'll say Aquaman is doing great, even amazing, in China...but for a $200M budgeted super, maybe only getting to Venom-to-Ant-Man numbers DOM is not great or even good DOM (I think it can be better, but my track record this week is gonna make me cautious:)...I mean, by the hit tracking logic, Mortal Engines did good b/c it hit its single digit DOM BO tracking...but tracking is not the be-all-and-end-all for box office performance:)...you gotta compare it to the actual expectation when they put the budget out on the film (b/c you know they only approve big numbers if they expect big performance in places)...

 

PS - Screenrant says its $160M, so take your pick on the real budget number for Aquaman:)...

Now, it seems you are justifying one bad take with another. No where in tracking Aquaman was there a hint that a 65milliok domestic opening during the holiday was “not that good”. It’s tracking was always positive about its box office prospects- not like Mortal Engines. In fact, Deadline predicted that although it would open less than JL, it would eventually pass it because of the holidays. Aquaman is a B superhero. Comparisons to Ant Man and Doctor Strange are more applicable than to Batman and Superman. He is not a household name. I think maybe we got spoiled by Black Panther on this site. If Aquaman does 78 mil OW like Gitesh is predicting, that is a triumph for DC. I don’t see any spinning out of that. 

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Saw Bumblebee last night and it’s actually a pretty good movie. I could see it legging it out to a total higher than the flop last Transformers movie.

I think it will sprout crazy legs. Nothing is blowing up at the box office this holiday and the movie is a total crowd pleaser with a small opening. We saw what that lead to for something like TGS and Jumanji. Bet it gets a 7-9x multi.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Another minuscule drop. Too bad it’s gonna die starting Wednesday cause it could’ve legged it out to $300M with the staying power it is having.

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What is the exact breakdown of the previews? 

9M Thursday previews 28M Friday (32% ratio)

 

excluding the 4.9M from the Prime showing last week and the sneaks on Wed

[SnokesLegs]

I think people seem to be forgetting that if you take Star Wars out of the equation, Aquaman’s opening would be on the high end for December openings this close to Christmas. Star Wars has been an “event” for the last three pre-Christmas timeframes, you can’t judge Aquaman’s performance against a Star Wars film. In the context of non-Star Wars December openers, it’s doing just fine, and after the dumpster fire of Justice League, this is very much a win.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

9M Thursday previews 28M Friday (32% ratio)

 

excluding the 4.9M from the Prime showing last week and the sneaks on Wed

Ah I see.

[MrGlass2]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What is the exact breakdown of the previews? 

4.7 pre-previews, 9 previews, 19 Friday.

[WrathOfHan]

21 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Or do they? 

There are only 15k in a city of 200k. That’s less than my town and the surrounding two towns combined (not to mention The Villages which... yeah)

[Brainbug]

Just now, SnokesLegs said:

I think people seem to be forgetting that if you take Star Wars out of the equation, Aquaman’s opening would be on the high end for December openings this close to Christmas. Star Wars has been an “event” for the last three pre-Christmas timeframes, you can’t judge Aquaman’s performance against a Star Wars film. In the context of non-Star Wars December openers, it’s doing just fine, and after the dumpster fire of Justice League, this is very much a win.

 

But was Rogue One really an event, @MovieMan89?

 

Jokes aside, i totally agree with your post. Justice League was franchise-killing bad, so having this film performing at this level is a major win for WB/DC, especially its worldwide performance.

 

[LexJoker]

12 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

 

 

 

Probably will earn around $50M from SAT & SUN.

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, MrGlass2 said:

4.7 pre-previews, 9 previews, 19 Friday.

so is it better to say that the previews to opening day ratio breakdown are 13.7M to 32M or 9M to 28M

 

the latter would show that it's less frontloaded

 

 

[Manny G]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

4.5 was from China, so about 14.5 from the rest of the markets. China to add another 16 over the weekend and the other markets should get 40-45M at least. Should be over 400M OS and around 480M WW Sunday. Most likely 550+ by Christmas and touching 800 by the end of the holiday stretch.

I think it could touch $500M by Sunday. It’s at $383M now just adding China’s  $10M from Saturday and and let’s say $65M from the US weekend we then have $458M. So adding the remaining markets and China Sunday it could touch $500M

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

I think people seem to be forgetting that if you take Star Wars out of the equation, Aquaman’s opening would be on the high end for December openings this close to Christmas. Star Wars has been an “event” for the last three pre-Christmas timeframes, you can’t judge Aquaman’s performance against a Star Wars film. In the context of non-Star Wars December openers, it’s doing just fine, and after the dumpster fire of Justice League, this is very much a win.

On the opposite end of that spectrum, some seem to also be forgetting that if you look at Aquaman’s opening next to every other DCEU film or live action CBM from this year, it doesn’t look too hot. Now obviously some of that is December, but I doubt such a fan driven film as AQM would have opened drastically higher somewhere else. I would still expect significant dceu front loading unless the WOM breaks out big with the GA. 

[RealLyre]

 

[RealLyre]

 

[MrGlass2]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so is it better to say that the previews to opening day ratio breakdown are 13.7M to 32M or 9M to 28M

 

the latter would show that it's less frontloaded

 

 

I think 9/28 is better, it has behaved a lot like Venom since the start:

On 12/21/2018 at 5:10 AM, MrGlass2 said:

Aquaman up to 83% of Venom, which would translate into a $67M opening.

Add pre-previews and it could mean $72M OW.

 

[xxoo]

 

[Krissykins]

Nice for Aquaman, it deserves to do this well. I’m glad so many people went to IMAX too.