WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[filmlover]

I’ve already made a bomb shelter to hide in for whenever Pikachu arrives and doesn’t live up to the absurdly high expectations around here.

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I’ve already made a bomb shelter to hide in for whenever Pikachu arrives and doesn’t live up to the absurdly high expectations around here.

 

Yeah, i dont get those 600-700M predictions for Pika-Pika, i just dont get it. A reasonable prediction would be around 590M i think.

[Premium George]

Is this how spartans felt when fighting Persians? Pika will do $150m d..,., I meant $1 billion dom.

[reddevil19]

Pikachu will do less than 100 domestic.

[lorddemaxus]

33 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Yeah, i dont get those 600-700M predictions for Pika-Pika, i just dont get it. A reasonable prediction would be around 590M i think.

I remember the same thing being said when Venom trailer released and got lots of trailer views. Trailer views aren't the best thing to use for predictions but every pg-13 film that had 90 mil or more views in the first 24 hours grossed over 1 billion except for Transformers the Last Knight and Thor Ragnarok. Again, not the best predictor but it does show there is a pattern here. Detective Pikachu has 100 mil trailer views

Edited December 30, 2018 by lorddemaxus

[Eric the Ape]

Enough about DP, let's talk about...DP.

June 7

Dark Phoenix: Does anyone (outside of Arlborn) actually care about this? Does even Fox care about this? The FOX-Men movies are basically played out by this point. Its initial teaser was fine, but nothing all that earth-shattering. The FOX-Men are also expected to be dropped by the time this movie comes out in favor of the new MCU version. Then there’s so many other movies surrounding it with more buzz. Just seems like the interest is non-existent. Maybe summer weekdays will help it cross the century mark, but this will probably go sub-100M. 35/85 (2.43x)

 

Flarsky: Moved to the summer due to good test screenings, the concept is certainly timely, and Seth Rogen still has his fans. I’m pretty hesitant on any straightforward comedy’s box office potential nowadays, but this should be a bright spot and a good counter-programmer. 25/80 (3.2x)

 

The Secret Life of Pets 2: The first Pets was one of the biggest surprises when it comes to $100M openers. And it's still the highest opening for a completely original film. But the question is whether or not it can recreate that success for the sequel? While it is common for animated movie sequels to increase from their predecessors, including ones that were already huge hits, this one opened so high that it is a bit of a question mark, and there’s plenty of things that make me pessimistic over that happening.

 

The character-focused trailers that have been coming out is certainly helpful in maintaining awareness for the film, and the first film was well-liked, generating solid legs. But despite the film being liked by audiences, it doesn’t really seem like the film was beloved or has stuck around in the same way as other popular movies have. Using another sequel to a 2016 film as an example, Crimes of Grindelwald showed that just because your first movie had good legs and solid word of mouth, that doesn’t mean your next movie is going to be an instant hit, especially if the new hook fails to appeal (of course it didn’t help that Grindelwald sucked, but still). Then again, I’m not 8 years old, so maybe what i'm saying is moot.

 

It also doesn’t help that the film’s competition is a lot fiercer. Outside of Finding Dory, which was already playing for a month, the biggest direct threat to Pets was Ice Age 5, alongside indirect threats like Ghostbusters and Legend of Tarzan. This year, Pets will be surrounded by Aladdin and Toy Story, and to a lesser extent Godzilla, all of which are destined to make at least 80M+. That’s a problem.

 

Follow-ups to monster animated movies typically drop in the 20s when it comes to total, so let’s just say around 21%. 90/285 (3.16x)

[Eric the Ape]

June 14

 

Men in Black International: The first trailer got a bit of an “eh” response. Most of the reactions are either “eh, this looks lame” or “eh, this looks fun”. But despite the more mellow reactions, this won’t implode as much as the previous Will Smith-less continuation of a 90s property with a Hemsworth brother starring. For one, although Men in Black was definitely sold on Will Smith’s charisma and personality, there’s still plenty more you can do with the MiB universe than you can with Independence Day. A sci-fi action comedy with cool aliens and decent one-liners can be repackaged to a new audience far better than another end-of-the-world apocalypse story. Helps that Men in Black is largely considered a better movie than the first Independence Day.

 

Outside of that, F. Gary Gray is a good director, the cast is a lot of fun, and apart from Godzilla, which will already be out for a couple of weeks, and Dark Phoenix, which nobody cares about, this is the only major live-action tentpole of the month. That will help it stand out. It will be a good blockbuster for kids who have already seen Pets and Toy Story and for adults that are uninterested in the adventures of Woody and Buzz or Max and Duke. Ocean’s 8 numbers. 45/145 (3.22x)

 

Shaft: The three Shaft generations is a great concept, and Tim Story’s done a couple good movies here and there before. Shaft is one of the more famous blaxploitation characters, so this will certainly do better than Superfly. Won’t be a massive hit, but it will find its audience. 20/50 (2.5x)

[TMP]

Can't see X-Men dropping that low considering the funnybook mania happening right now, and post-Glass McAvoy's gonna be a bigger star than he is right now, so he'll certainly be able to sell some more seats. Apocalypse numbers seem likely

[reddevil19]

Dark Phoenix over 200

[YM!]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Dark Phoenix over 200

Not a chance. Though I do believe sub $100M is extreme.

[TMP]

Hot takes time!

MiB < $120m dom

Far From Home < Homecoming [unless Sony moves it to like November]

Dark Phoenix ≈ $145-$150m dom [gonna be next year's Ready Player One where everyone expects bombage and it does just ok dom]

Ann3belle > $100m dom

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood > $200m dom

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

I haven't written my writeup yet, but I'm 100% with Eric on Dark Phoenix going under 100M. I've been saying that for a long time.

[filmlover]

I keep forgetting Dark Phoenix is really a movie.

[TMP]

at worst Dark Phoenix is doing Ready Player One numbers dom, but I can't see it going much higher than $155m either

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Not a chance. Though I do believe sub $100M is extreme.

I'm more controversial than the two people who are SUPPOSED to be controversial in their predictions.

[That One Girl]

Flarsky is Seth Rogen's first live action comedy since Neighbors 2 (not counting Disaster Artist because he's more of a supporting role in that, plus that was played as a prestige flick).  Not sure what that means in terms of box office, but it could do better than many are expecting.

[SLAM!]

I want to see movies other than obvious blockbusters break out in wide release. I want films like Five Feet Apart, Captive State, Missing Link, and Breakthrough all make much more than people are expecting them to make. I highly doubt people will have the new years resolution of becoming more open to trying new things, but they should, for the sake of themselves and for the sake of those who are offerings unique and fulfilling entertainment. I know I'm going against reality, but I want to root for the little guy just as much as I want to root for the big guy, you know?

[Eric the Ape]

27 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I haven't written my writeup yet, but I'm 100% with Eric on Dark Phoenix going under 100M. I've been saying that for a long time.

[MrGlass2]

Too low for DP (again), way too high for MIB (the next Hemsbomb).

[JGAR4LIFE]

People are fooling themselves if they think Dark Phoenix will make more than $160M