WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[cookie]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

PikaPika over $600M or bust.

 

[WrathOfHan]

May 3

 

The Intruder: Given this is a Screen Gems thriller, it is hard to say where this could land five months out. There are not any competing movies coming out around this, so maybe it approaches 30M? Idk. 12/26 (2.16x)

 

Uglydolls: MR. WORLDWIDE WILL GET THIS TO 100M!!!!!!! …..Worldwide? This movie looks pretty insufferable, but when I got the trailer at Grindelwald and Ralph, people were into it. Having original songs from a lot of different artists could help as well, especially if one of them gets high on the charts. However, this movie looks so bland and like a blantant Trolls ripoff, so I wonder if people are going to care enough to give this their money. The amount of family competition doesn’t help either. It should do better than Missing Link, but crossing 50M will be a challenge. 13/42 (4x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

May 24

 

Aladdin: This marketing campaign is really missing the mark. The teaser showed nothing to get people interested, while the EW photos make it look abnormally cheap. Then you got mouth breathers whining about how Will Smith isn’t blue, because apparently that’s a crime against humanity. 🙄 But still, it doesn’t seem like even Aladdin fans are all that impressed.

 

And yeah, it seems like Disney’s just trying to polish a turd. Guy Ritchie’s a hit-and-miss, mostly miss director, and the Disney Memorial Day curse is real. Add on Pikachu, Pets, and Toy Story, and this could be in trouble. Then again, maybe Disney will release a new trailer that shows off Big Willie’s comedic chops, and everything will turn out okay. Who knows? 80/100/228 (2.85x, 2.28x)

 

Booksmart: I had no idea this existed until just now. It's an Olivia Wilde-directed comedy with Beanie Feldstein, so...Annapurna will be Annapurna? 5/7/15 (3x, 2.14x) 

BrightBurn: In our current superhero movie boom, it’s surprising we haven’t had a “what if a superhero origin story went wrong?” plot until now (yes I know Chronicle exists, shut up). The trailer’s pretty cool, the film will likely ride the coattails of the superhero movie boom, and James Gunn’s name isn’t that tarnished. A modest success. 20/35/55 (2.75x, 1.57x)

 

I don't think Ad Astra is coming out this weekend, so I'm just gonna skip it.

[Eric Loves Rey]

May 31

Godzilla 2: Like the first Godzilla, this is having some GOAT marketing. But unlike the first Godzilla, this actually seems to be giving people what they want. Pure monster carnage with glorious scale and visuals. And unlike something like Lego, the 5-year gap arguably benefits the movie. Most people will probably be unaware that it’s a sequel and could treat it like a stand-alone thing, so anyone turned off by the last movie probably forgot it even came out. A similar opening and better legs. A rarity when it comes to sequels, I'm aware. 90/230 (2.55x)

 

Rocketman: Following up Bohemian Rhapsody, this won’t be as successful, considering John’s music and story doesn’t have the same iconic stature. But it will certainly find a solid audience, feature catchy songs, and be a great counter-program for adults this summer. This also seems like it’ll still be a decent crowd-pleaser, though as good as Bohemian we’ll just have to wait and see. 35/120 (3.43x)

[WrathOfHan]

 

May 10

 

The Hustle: Without a trailer, it is hard to judge how big this could be, but opening on Mother’s Day Weekend is a good sign for its box office potential. Life of the Party and Snatched are probably the best comparisons for this. If the movie is actually good unlike those two, I can see it going over 20M for its OW and legging it out. However, given the movie was delayed a year, I am skeptical of its quality. 18/45 (2.5x)

 

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu: PIKA PIKA MOTHERFUCKERS! Talk about having no expectations for this film to being very anticipated for it. The trailer is so much fun, and the CGI Pokémon look fantastic. The internet and audiences agree based on its trailer views and anecdotal evidence from seeing the trailer in theaters. People are nuts to doubt the power the brand has. The games always sell well for Nintendo’s systems, and Pokémon Go dominated Summer 2016. In fact, maybe Pikachu can dominate Summer 2019 if we exclude Endgame. Brace yourselves. 220/660 (3x)

[reddevil19]

That's the stuff right there! 

[Premium George]

Detective pikachu will do $50m OW and $140m dom. $500m Worldwide.

Detective pikachu will do $102m OW and $332m dom. $850m WW. 

Detective pikachu will do $174m OW and $554m dom. $1.45b WW. 

Detective pikachu will do $224m OW and $714m dom. $2b WW. 

Detective pikachu will do $258m OW and $856m dom. $2.7b WW. 

Detective pikachu will do $300m OW and $1.1b dom. $3.7b WW. 

[WrathOfHan]

May 17

 

A Dog’s Journey: Boy, Universal really screwed the pooch on this one. Delaying this movie would be in their best interests because, as I may have mentioned with A Dog’s Way Home, audiences are not going to see two very similar movies this close to each other. It also doesn’t help that May is pretty crowded this year. Maybe it makes a profit, but the gross will not be noteworthy. 10/35 (3.5x)

 

John Wick: Chapter 3: ALL BLACK, ONE GUNMAN. JOHN WICK, THAT’S A BAD MAN. The John Wick franchise is one of the most popular action series out there right now, and both films have gained sizable audiences on home media and cable. This one is clearly going to increase from Chapter 2, but how much will it increase? Based on the stills we have gotten so far, I will wager a bet and say a lot. How much is a lot? Try almost double Chapter 2. 55/165 (3x)

 

The Sun Is Also a Star: Like I mentioned with Five Feet Apart, teen romances are pretty consistent at the box office. One of The Sun Is Also a Star’s biggest advantages is having a mostly minority cast, which will no doubt garner some positive pre-release buzz and awareness. However, given the amount of competition May has, it will probably remain in the same range as other teen romances like WB’s own Everything, Everything. 13/40 (3.08x)

[YM!]

Finally some bold predictions.

[cookie]

11 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu: PIKA PIKA MOTHERFUCKERS! Talk about having no expectations for this film to being very anticipated for it. The trailer is so much fun, and the CGI Pokémon look fantastic. The internet and audiences agree based on its trailer views and anecdotal evidence from seeing the trailer in theaters. People are nuts to doubt the power the brand has. The games always sell well for Nintendo’s systems, and Pokémon Go dominated Summer 2016. In fact, maybe Pikachu can dominate Summer 2019 if we exclude Endgame. Brace yourselves. 220/660 (3x)

 

20 minutes ago, cookie said:

PikaPika over $600M or bust.

 

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu: PIKA PIKA MOTHERFUCKERS! Talk about having no expectations for this film to being very anticipated for it. The trailer is so much fun, and the CGI Pokémon look fantastic. The internet and audiences agree based on its trailer views and anecdotal evidence from seeing the trailer in theaters. People are nuts to doubt the power the brand has. The games always sell well for Nintendo’s systems, and Pokémon Go dominated Summer 2016. In fact, maybe Pikachu can dominate Summer 2019 if we exclude Endgame. Brace yourselves. 220/660 (3x)

 

[WrathOfHan]

May 24

 

AD Astra: James Gray recently said he doesn’t know if the visual effects will be ready in time for this release date, so we will see where Fox sticks it. I think it has 100M potential with the right release date, but on Memorial Day weekend, I do not think that would happen. We’ll see where this eventually lands and go from there.

 

Aladdin: Look, I know the recent EW stills were a mixed bag, and I know the teaser was pretty lame. HOWEVER, this is Aladdin here. Aladdin is one of Disney’s most iconic films, and Will Smith as the Genie is getting people interested. I cannot see it falling below 200M. Solo numbers are probably the floor, and that is only if the movie sucks. I don’t expect the highest quality film from Guy Ritchie, but Disney probably has enough of a leash on him that it will at least get ok reviews. 100/115/275 (2.75x/2.39x)

 

Booksmart: Annapurna, what is you doing? Why are you releasing such a small movie on Memorial Day weekend? You have not proven yourself to be a reliable wide distributor yet. Move this elsewhere and maybe it can do better. 5/7/15 (3x/2.14x)

 

Brightburn: This has already gotten a fair amount of pre-release buzz with its trailer. The concept of an evil Superman is appealing to audiences, and James Gunn’s name being attached to the project also has people excited. The biggest thing this movie has going for it is the lack of horror releases this summer. Unless Blumhouse’s scheduled spot next weekend stays, the only other horror movies this summer are Sony’s Grudge remake in a few weeks, Annabelle 3 in July, and Ari Aster’s followup to Hereditary in mid-August. Spoiler: the first one will not make much money! This will help Brightburn out quite a bit. This will be a nice sized hit for Sony. 15/18/45 (3x/2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

May 31

 

Godzilla: King of the Monsters: And the most overpredicted film right now that isn’t Us is… Godzilla! Look, I know how great these trailers are, but you have to remember how much the 2014 film soured audiences. It had a massive opening and collapsed afterwards because it rarely showed the titular creature. This sequel is nothing like the original, but there will still be skeptics among the GA. It will have an opening above Kong: Skull Island but below the first film, and legs will get it pretty close to the first film’s total if not slightly higher. But this is not going to do something like 250M+. It reminds me of MI Fallout where great trailers led many to believe it would be a massive increase from other films in the series but instead puts up a strong total closer to its predecessors. 75/210 (2.8x)

 

Rocketman: Bohemian Rhapsody is/was an absolute monster at the box office, and Rocketmanis directed by the ghost director of BR. Obviously because Dexter Fletcher was not the credited director, they cannot use “FROM THE DIRECTOR OF BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY” in the marketing, but highlighting it is from the same team would work. As for the subject matter itself, Elton John is an iconic musician but not in the stratosphere of someone like Freddie Mercury. His farewell tour is currently selling a boatload of tickets, and younger generations are certainly aware of him. The movie’s biggest hurdle is overcoming the “true fantasy” element. This is not a straight biopic and instead take elements of Elton’s life and turns it into a whimsical musical. This may or may not appeal to the GA, and I need to see another trailer before I decide where to land on this. For now, I will say it gets close to 100M but does not cross it. 30/80 (2.67x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

May 31

 

Godzilla: King of the Monsters: And the most overpredicted film right now that isn’t Us is… Godzilla! Look, I know how great these trailers are, but you have to remember how much the 2014 film soured audiences. It had a massive opening and collapsed afterwards because it rarely showed the titular creature. This sequel is nothing like the original, but there will still be skeptics among the GA. It will have an opening above Kong: Skull Island but below the first film, and legs will get it pretty close to the first film’s total if not slightly higher. But this is not going to do something like 250M+. It reminds me of MI Fallout where great trailers led many to believe it would be a massive increase from other films in the series but instead puts up a strong total closer to its predecessors. 75/210 (2.8x)

 

My prediction sees a 15% increase from G14, which is similar to Fallout's jump after Rogue Nation.  

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

My prediction sees a 15% increase from G14, which is similar to Fallout's jump after Rogue Nation.  

[MrGlass2]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu:  220/660 (3x)

That sounds about right. (I didn't realize these predictions were for OD/OW)

[Brainbug]

May gonne be totally insane. Not only because of the pure box office potential but these are films that everyone actually wants to see.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

May gonne be totally insane. Not only because of the pure box office potential but these are films that everyone actually wants to see.

It's a gigantic change from last May where there was jackshit outside of Deadpool and Solo.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's a gigantic change from last May where there was jackshit outside of Deadpool and Solo.

 

Hey, we had the hotly anticipated Overboard and Life of the Party!

[DAR]

I am puzzled by any 300 million plus predictions for Pikachu.  And when it likely passes that mark with ease, I will continue to be puzzled.   But those of you into it, I hope you enjoy