WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[aabattery]

PREDICT AD ASTRA YOU COWARDS

[Porthos]

18 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

April 26

 

Avengers: Endgame: This is the end…. Beautiful friends…. Wait wrong movie. But yeah, WE ARE IN THE ENDGAME NOW. I can understand why people expect this to drop from Infinity War, but I don’t see that happening, especially on its OW. This has even bigger buzz than Infinity War did as people want to know how the story continues. This could mean weaker legs (especially if Pika Pika is as big as I expect it to be), but again, I doubt legs experience a significant drop from the first. This is somewhat a test of how high opening weekends can go, but with a nearly 3 hour runtime, that will mean fewer showtimes than Infinity War had. But fuck it, go controversial, right? 280/715 (2.55x)

 

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

May 10

 

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu: PIKA PIKA MOTHERFUCKERS! Talk about having no expectations for this film to being very anticipated for it. The trailer is so much fun, and the CGI Pokémon look fantastic. The internet and audiences agree based on its trailer views and anecdotal evidence from seeing the trailer in theaters. People are nuts to doubt the power the brand has. The games always sell well for Nintendo’s systems, and Pokémon Go dominated Summer 2016. In fact, maybe Pikachu can dominate Summer 2019 if we exclude Endgame. Brace yourselves. 220/660 (3x)

Am I the only one here who wonders how the hell both of these actually happens? Nearly 1.4b between two films released two weeks apart? 

 

I know I was a big proponent of a repeat of the Summer 2007 box office for this year.  Well, look how that turned out.  

 

Not saying that Pika can't break out.  Just wondering how the hell we have two 650m+ films side by side.

 

 

[nick64]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Am I the only one here who wonders how the hell both of these actually happens? Nearly 1.4b between two films released two weeks apart? 

 

I know I was a big proponent of a repeat of the Summer 2007 box office for this year.  Well, look how that turned out.  

 

Not saying that Pika can't break out.  Just wondering how the hell we have two 650m+ films side by side.

 

 

Endgame will have already covered nearly $500M of that by the time Pika Pika comes out. It’s happening 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, nick64 said:

Endgame will have already covered nearly $500M of that by the time Pika Pika comes out. It’s happening 

I'm not saying this can't happen.  But I just did a check.

 

Since 2000 (which is my personal cut off for the "modern" blockbuster/multiplex era) there has NEVER been a case where two movies have grossed over 500m adjusted after being released two weeks apart, never mind 650m.  A month apart?  Sure.  But two weeks?  Closest case I can find was 2002 (SM1: 635m adj | AotC: 475m adj).

 

Now there have been instances of two 400m+ (adj) films being released within two weeks within each other, even when one takes the holidays out of the equation. 

 

Just saying that this is indeed "controversial", even if it doesn't appear so at first blush. "Historic" would be another word.

 

EDIT:::

 

Even the most obvious comp of JW1 (722.5m adj) and Inside Out (394.7m) doesn't work, as IO comes up waaaaaaay short.

 

And this isn't even getting into runtime and PLF concerns.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Porthos

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm not saying this can't happen.  But I just did a check.

 

Since 2000 (which is my personal cut off for the "modern" blockbuster/multiplex era) there has NEVER been a case where two movies have grossed over 500m adjusted after being released two weeks apart, never mind 650m.  A month apart?  Sure.  But two weeks?  Closest case I can find was 2002 (SM1: 635m adj | AotC: 475m adj).

 

Now there have been instances of two 400m+ (adj) films being released within two weeks within each other, even when one takes the holidays out of the equation. 

 

Just saying that this is indeed "controversial", even if it doesn't appear so at first blush. "Historic" would be another word.

 

EDIT:::

 

Even the most obvious comp of JW1 (722.5m adj) and Inside Out (394.7m) doesn't work, as IO comes up waaaaaaay short.

 

And this isn't even getting into runtime and PLF concerns.

[MrGlass2]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Since 2000 (which should be the cut off for the "modern" blockbuster/multiplex era) there has NEVER been a case where two movies have grossed over 500m adjusted after being released two weeks apart, never mind 650m.  A month apart?  Sure.  But two weeks?  Closest case I can find was 2002 (SM1: 635m adj | AotC: 475m adj).

Bad news for Endgame, but there is always a first time for everything.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Bad news for Endgame, but there is always a first time for everything.

 

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I'm just saying I'd find IW2 675 and Pika 500-525 more believable.

 

And still historic.  

[nick64]

30 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'm not saying this can't happen.  But I just did a check.

 

Since 2000 (which is my personal cut off for the "modern" blockbuster/multiplex era) there has NEVER been a case where two movies have grossed over 500m adjusted after being released two weeks apart, never mind 650m.  A month apart?  Sure.  But two weeks?  Closest case I can find was 2002 (SM1: 635m adj | AotC: 475m adj).

 

Now there have been instances of two 400m+ (adj) films being released within two weeks within each other, even when one takes the holidays out of the equation. 

 

Just saying that this is indeed "controversial", even if it doesn't appear so at first blush. "Historic" would be another word.

 

EDIT:::

 

Even the most obvious comp of JW1 (722.5m adj) and Inside Out (394.7m) doesn't work, as IO comes up waaaaaaay short.

 

And this isn't even getting into runtime and PLF concerns.

That’s only because Avengers and Pika Pika have never released within two weeks of each other before

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Bad news for Endgame, but there is always a first time for everything.

Decided to go back further into the past to see what I can find.

 

The absolute best case scenario is 1994 with (original) TLK and Forrest Gump.  Ignoring the limited engagement one week earlier, The Lion King opened wide two weeks before Forrest Gump and we get 682m (first run adj) for TLK and 718m (first run adj) for FG.

 

But the movie theater landscape was radically different in 1994, so the comp only goes so far, IMO.

 

Still, there's the comp.  I just don't think it's very applicable.

[DAJK]

Still don't think Pika Pika is opening above G14

[JGAR4LIFE]

If people wanna see both movies, they WILL see both movies. Pokémon is definitely getting a lot of money because the nostalgia drive is paying off with a good looking product and effective marketing. Pikachu looks like Pikachu and so do the other Pokémon. The same can’t be said for Aladdin or Sonic (although we don’t know his official design yet).

[Plain Old Tele]

@CoolEric258 @WrathOfHan Do you guys need track of your success rate?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Telemachos said:

@CoolEric258 @WrathOfHan Do you guys need track of your success rate?

If you're offering... 🤔

[Plain Old Tele]

Sub-600 for ENDGAME would be a hot take, I guess. So would sub-250 for PIKACHU, apparently. 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Telemachos said:

Sub-600 for ENDGAME would be a hot take, I guess. So would sub-250 for PIKACHU, apparently. 

 

For OW? Yes.

[That One Girl]

Those are both insanely low predictions for Detective Pikachu.

[AndyLL]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

Those are both insanely low predictions for Detective Pikachu.

Funny... I thought they were insanely HIGH predictions for DOM.... 

[MCKillswitch123]

15 hours ago, DAR said:

I am puzzled by any 300 million plus predictions for Pikachu.  And when it likely passes that mark with ease, I will continue to be puzzled.   But those of you into it, I hope you enjoy 

I was puzzled too at 1st, but then I remember someone calling this "Zootopia with Pokémon" and, remembering how enormous Zootopia was (340+ in March, iirc), it hit me hard. It really does look like a perfect cinematic approach to one of the biggest and most nostalgic brands in the world. And Reynolds sells in big roles (or at least in a post-Deadpool world), even if Pikapool sounds really odd. I mean, just look at the social media reaction to this movie...... batshit insane. I didn't even love the trailer that much, but I'd be lying if I said that I was in the vast minority about that, because everybody else seems to be fully on board for this, to the point where I'm definitely excited for its box office receipts, if anything. I don't know if it crosses 300M DOM and I do believe some of these overpredictions are just sarcastic/humorous (I mean, c'mon, 200+ OW and 600+ DOM for a fucking Pokémon movie????), but I feel like it's likelier than it missing 100M OW at this point.

 

@Telemachos I can see why sub-250 for Pikachu would happen, albeit I think it beats that mark; but why would you see less than 600 for the sequel to Infinity War that has already broken endless trailer view records? Just curious, I'm not judging.

Edited December 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Taruseth]

Might be wrong, but I think Pikachu is being thrown way out of proportion, I don't doubt that it will do great, but I doubt it will be able to do 600M.

 

[miketheavenger]

Pikachu is definitely gonna be a huge hit and it should be absolutely enormous overseas, but domestically, it's not even guaranteed to be in the top five for the year IMO (even though it is likely).