WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[Eric Loves Rey]

April 26

 

Avengers: Endgame: We’re finally at the big one. The big kahuna. So Infinity War smashed all expectations, became a massive event, everyone liked it, yadda yadda yadda. After that massive cliffhanger, everyone will want to come back to see how the characters will return, who will end up dead, and see what is essentially the culmination of the past 11 years of MCU goodness. The trailer’s already broken Infinity War’s record, and has a great pull on giving viewers just enough of a taste of what’s to come. The only real hurdle is whether this movie will deliver a satisfying ending. But at this point, creatively, Marvel has earned my trust.

 

However, and I know this is going to get me lynched, but I think Endgame will gross less than Infinity War. Infinity War really played up itself as the big finale, and I don’t think they can recreate the same marketing tactics as that film. The teaser’s more melancholy tone’s certainly effective. But it’s not gonna make general audiences hyped. Maybe trailer 2 will show off the spectacle and the goods, but I still don't think it'll be enough, considering how high Infinity War went. It also doesn’t help that the competition comes earlier. Remember, Infinity War had three weeks all to itself. And while it wasn’t the main reason for its solid legs, I’d be lying if I said I thought it didn't impact its performance and legs a little bit. With Detective Pikachu on the 10th, it only has two. That means something.

 

Also I just think it’ll be more frontloaded. This has a much larger finale factor, which can lead to a huge opening weekend rush, and a massive decline in the coming weeks. And I doubt the ending is going to be so shocking people will tell their non-MCU obsessed friends to check it out like they did with Infinity War.

 

It’ll still do very well though, and is guaranteed a spot in the top three biggest DOM grossers this year. But will it be #1 of the year? Let’s just wait and see.  270/635 (2.35x)

[MrGlass2]

20 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

 

The Curse of La Llorona: Wan da Gawd's a producer. Horror's also on a hit streak. But I don't think this will be a hit. Trailer views are exceedingly low (3.6M on WB's YouTube channel. Both Us and Pet Semetary are miles ahead of it), and it's coming out a week before the Death Star that is Endgame. Just doesn't seem like the hype is there compared to most other horror releases. 20/50 (2.5x)

Besides Wan's record, don't underestimate the box office power of Hispanic audiences (no matter what one thinks about the casting Twitter controversy).

Edited December 28, 2018 by MrGlass2

[reddevil19]

Pfff. Gutless.

300 million OW or bust

[Legion Again]

Super non-controversial Endgame take. Pressure’s on now, Han.

[JGAR4LIFE]

20 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

April 26

 

Avengers: Endgame: We’re finally at the big one. The big kahuna. So Infinity War smashed all expectations, became a massive event, everyone liked it, yadda yadda yadda. After that massive cliffhanger, everyone will want to come back to see how the characters will return, who will end up dead, and see what is essentially the culmination of the past 11 years of MCU goodness. The trailer’s already broken Infinity War’s record, and has a great pull on giving viewers just enough of a taste of what’s to come. The only real hurdle is whether this movie will deliver a satisfying ending. But at this point, creatively, Marvel has earned my trust.

 

However, and I know this is going to get me lynched, but I think Endgame will gross less than Infinity War. Infinity War really played up itself as the big finale, and I don’t think they can recreate the same marketing tactics as that film. The teaser’s more melancholy tone’s certainly effective. But it’s not gonna make general audiences hyped. Maybe trailer 2 will show off the spectacle and the goods, but I still don't think it'll be enough, considering how high Infinity War went. It also doesn’t help that the competition comes earlier. Remember, Infinity War had three weeks all to itself. And while it wasn’t the main reason for its solid legs, I’d be lying if I said I thought it didn't impact its performance and legs a little bit. With Detective Pikachu on the 10th, it only has two. That means something.

 

Also I just think it’ll be more frontloaded. This has a much larger finale factor, which can lead to a huge opening weekend rush, and a massive decline in the coming weeks. And I doubt the ending is going to be so shocking people will tell their non-MCU obsessed friends to check it out like they did with Infinity War.

 

It’ll still do very well though, and is guaranteed a spot in the top three biggest DOM grossers this year. But will it be #1 of the year? Let’s just wait and see.  270/635 (2.35x)

I’m...... fine with this. I would like to see end with more money but Pikachu will affect it definitely.

[Napoleon]

I'm not sure what to expect from Shazam. History shows audiences love childish, imbecile humor from some franchises out there, but not from DC. 

[fabiopazzo2]

Just now, Napoleon said:

I'm not sure what to expect from Shazam. History shows audiences love childish, humor from some franchises out there, but not from DC. 

Suicide squad did well and Aquaman will pass 1B so.. dont worry Napoleon 

[filmlover]

The Curse of La Llorona should move back two weeks to May 3 because it feels destined to get steamrolled in its current position.

[Cap]

On 12/27/2018 at 10:01 AM, WrathOfHan said:

March 8

 

Captain Marvel: This is a tough one to predict. First off, the buzz for the film is clearly here. Both trailers have amassed some of the biggest buzz for the MCU and are some of their most viewed trailers. In fact, both of the trailers have outpaced Black Panther’s trailers. Of course, Captain Marvel will not hit those highs at the box office (especially with Shazam! a month later), but despite what some in fanboy circles are saying about the trailers being meh, more casual audiences (not an insult btw) are loving the marketing. On the low end, I can see it performing around the level of Homecomingor Guardians of the Galaxy, but honestly, I think it will go significantly higher than that and be in the top five of the year. Brace yourselves. 170/510 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

April 17-19

 

Breakthrough: Christian movies are wild cards at the box office. You can have megahits like I Can Only Imagine or complete duds like recent Pure Flix movies. Breakthroughis a bit more high profile than those and has a decent cast boasting Chrissy Metz, Josh Lucas, Topher Grace, Mike Colter, and Dennis Haysbert. Fox is releasing it too, and they do not release many Christian flicks. Based on the size of the movie alone, I imagine it goes over 20M. Anything higher depends how much marketing it gets. 7/9//28 (4x/3.11x)

 

Penguins: It’s a Disneynature doc. These things are pretty consistent. Born in China will probably be the best comp here. 5/6/15 (3x./2.5x)

 

The Curse of La Llorona: James Wan tends to have pretty good things with the things he touches. Whether it’s movies he directs like Aquaman and The Conjuring or productions like sequels in that and the Insidious franchise, he is a horror god at this point. However, this Wan production…. probably will not be a hit. The trailer for this film reminds me a lot like The Nun’s trailer: brief clips leading up to one big jumpscare setpiece. Despite being a shitty film, The Nun’s trailer was really effective. I can’t say the same about La Llorona. This film just looks so generic and repetitive. It doesn’t help that it was subject to a whitewashing controversy already either. James Wan’s name will get it a double digits opening, but it will die fast. 10/22 (2.2x)

[Warmaster506]

5 hours ago, Napoleon said:

I'm not sure what to expect from Shazam. History shows audiences love childish, imbecile humor from some franchises out there, but not from DC. 

DC is turning it around and it will all be worth it. 

[WrathOfHan]

April 26

 

Avengers: Endgame: This is the end…. Beautiful friends…. Wait wrong movie. But yeah, WE ARE IN THE ENDGAME NOW. I can understand why people expect this to drop from Infinity War, but I don’t see that happening, especially on its OW. This has even bigger buzz than Infinity War did as people want to know how the story continues. This could mean weaker legs (especially if Pika Pika is as big as I expect it to be), but again, I doubt legs experience a significant drop from the first. This is somewhat a test of how high opening weekends can go, but with a nearly 3 hour runtime, that will mean fewer showtimes than Infinity War had. But fuck it, go controversial, right? 280/715 (2.55x)

[Neucentro]

That The Curse of La Llorona prediction 

 

Can't see it going under $30m.

Edited December 29, 2018 by Neucentro

[Brinatico]

5 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

That The Curse of La Llorona prediction 

 

Can't see it going under $30m.

On opening weekend 

[reddevil19]

49 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

(especially if Pika Pika is as big as I expect it to be)

There we go... Come on, let's get to the good stuff! 

[Lordmandeep]

such uncontroversial predictions for Avengers 4 lol 

[Eric Loves Rey]

May 3

 

The Intruder: The last major Screen Gems thriller like this was When the Bough Breaks. This is coming out in a crowded summer, so I expect similar results. 15/30 (2x)

 

Uglydolls: God I hate this trailer. I’ve gotten this at Grinch, Ralph, and Spider-Verse, and I’m probably getting it in front of every kids movie I have an inkling of interest in for the next few months. It just looks like the absolute worst that children’s entertainment has to offer, so each trailer feels like torture.

 

And I’m sure audiences will agree with me on this. Not just because of the low quality, but because there’s already so much family content that will be arriving in the coming weeks that look far more appealing. Pikachu, Aladdin, Pets, Toy Story. Audiences will save their money, considering the massive summer it will be for for family films. 10/30 (3x)

[Eric Loves Rey]

May 10

Detective Pikachu: Okay, okay. I was wrong. I said when the first trailer dropped this movie's run would end in the 100s. But now it’ll probably open in the 100s. The hype for this is real. People love the trailer, they’re excited to see Pokemon in live-action, they love the crazy idea, they love them some good ol’ Pika Pika. Fans will probably love it, the kids will eat it up, even people not into Pokemon might just check it out for FOMO purposes. Nostalgia’s also a helluva drug. This won’t do the absurdly high predicts people have sprung about, but this will still be very impressive and probably WB’s biggest movie this year. 140/390 (2.78x)

 

The Hustle: Initially slated to come out last year, there is a scenario where it’s a decent enough offering for Mother’s Day, but I don’t really see this catching on. The director is unproven, the writer wrote Olaf’s Frozen Adventure, and even with two talented actresses, I don’t see why people will care about this one considering all of the other counterprogramming options. 15/45 (3x)

[YM!]

PikaPika over $500M or bust.

[Eric Loves Rey]

May 17

 

A Dog’s Journey: This is the second adaptation of a book written by the A Dog’s Purpose guy coming out this year. But it won’t gross more than Dog’s Way Home. Like Uglydolls, this is swarmed by a slew of more appealing family productions with much higher gross potential. At least with Home, stuff like Poppins and Spider-Verse will have smaller weekend grosses. Also, I just don’t see people going for what is essentially the same movie twice. At least something like Antz and A Bug’s Life had different tones and styles to them. This is the exact same movie, from the exact same author. 12/40 (3.33x)

 

John Wick: Chapter 3: As we all know, thanks to the ancillary market, John Wick 2 leapfrogged over its predecessor. This won’t have a massive jump like before, but I can see another increase. It feels like the franchise is more and more popular every year, and it’s kind of counterprogramming from all the PG-13 blockbusters surrounding it. It also has the benefit of summer weekdays. And of course, John Wick on a horse is the greatest hook ever. 35/105 (3x)

 

The Sun Is Also a Star: From the director of Before I Fall, this just seems like any other YA adaptation. Everything, Everything numbers seems about right. 11/35 (3.18x)