WrathofHan and CoolEric's Controversial* Predictions of 2019 (*Controversial results may vary)

[MCKillswitch123]

2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

I remember the same thing being said when Venom trailer released and got lots of trailer views. Trailer views aren't the best thing to use for predictions but every pg-13 film that had 90 mil or more views in the first 24 hours grossed over 1 billion except for Transformers the Last Knight and Thor Ragnarok. Again, not the best predictor but it does show there is a pattern here. Detective Pikachu has 100 mil trailer views

In all fairness to Thor: Ragnarok, it probably would have made 900+ WW (maybe 1B) if it hadn't ran into Justice League in its 3rd DOM weekend (4th OS weekend). Without that kind of direct competition, it probably would have reached for the billion or close to it.

 

No idea how Trans5mers had that much presumed anticipation but crashed so hard, though. Also, you forgot Fifty Shades Darker (100M+ views in 24h for the 1st teaser, WW total of sub-400.... great for its budget, though).

 

Anyways, Dark Phoenix has enough hype for 100M+ DOM imo, but it won't be much more than 130, I think.

Edited December 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[WrathOfHan]

June 7

 

Dark Phoenix: As I said earlier, yeah, this ain’t hitting 100M. Even though we are in total CBM domination right now, who the hell cares about the Singer X-Men movies anymore? This would have to be one of the greatest CBMs ever to reach a total near Apocalypse, and given this franchise’s track record, I will go ahead and say it isn’t going to be one of the greatest CBMs. It also doesn’t help that June is a pretty busy month with May holdovers still going strong. Plus, Far from Home is going to hurt its legs badly. Just put this series out of its misery already. 35/75 (2.14x)

 

Flarsky: Seth Rogen is a consistent comedy draw. The premise for Flarsky sounds a bit out there (a dude tries winning over his old babysitter), but Rogen’s comedies relish in absurdity. At worst, this will fall around 40-45M. Given it has been a while since Rogen’s last film, I will go a little higher than that. 20/60 (3x)

 

The Secret Life of Pets 2: ……………….. How do I write this unbiased? Eh fuck it, my gloves are off. The first film is what caused me to coin the term Illuminati to describe Illumination films, and I am not surprised Illuminati is up to their old marketing tactics again with this. Three trailers have been released so far, each showcasing a different character doing something WACKY and WILD. To no one’s surprise, audiences are eating this up. Blech. This won’t drop much from the first as much as I’d like it to. At least Toy Story 4 will put a dent in its legs.90/300 (3.33x)

[WrathOfHan]

June 14

 

Men in Black: International: OH SNAP oh snap oh snap. Can I just how how FUN this movie looks? The Fate of the Furious is the second best film in that franchise, and F. Gary Gray appears to be bringing that fun kinetic energy over to the MIB universe. Online reception isn’t terrible either despite people mad that Will Smith isn’t in the film or, GASP, a woman is the main character. It will probably fall in the same range as Ocean’s 8 and Ghostbusters barring excellent or horrible reviews. 45/145 (3.22x)

 

Son of Shaft: Does anyone actually care about this? Shaft came out almost twenty years ago and has not been remembered in the public conscience. Samuel L. Jackson is always fun, but the concept needs to be there for his movies to succeed (seeThe Hitman’s Bodyguardor the upcoming Glass). Netflix also picked up the international rights for this, so Warner Bros will not be putting much effort into this release. Bombs away (?). 8/16 (2x)

[WrathOfHan]

June 21

 

Child’s Play: …..Sure, let’s reboot a horror franchise that still does pretty well with direct-to-video releases. This is a reboot that I am positive many will get pissed off by. The new Orion does not have the power old Orion did either, so who knows what type of release this is going to get. Chucky alone should bring some attention, but it will die a fast death. 12/24 (2x)

 

Grudge: ANOTHER HORROR REBOOT ON THE SAME WEEKEND? Damn. You know, this has a pretty good cast, but The Grudge feels like old news. This or Child’s Play will move, but I am a little curious about how this one will end up quality-wise. For now, I will assume Rings numbers. 13/26 (2x)

 

Toy Story 4: The teasers released so far have been an interesting choice for Pixar. Neither reveal anything about the plot and just reveal new characters. The first teaser got overshadowed by Pikachu, but there was still some chatter online. As much as another film in this franchise seems pointless, a lot of people still want to see this, including the target demo of families. This will do well, but Pets will dampen its gross a bit. I am expecting Pixar to win this battle though, especially when there is not any new non-Disney family competition until Dora. 95/320 (3.37x)

[reddevil19]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Fate of the Furious is the second best film in that franchise

 

102 million for it.

[Plain Old Tele]

6 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

@Telemachos I can see why sub-250 for Pikachu would happen, albeit I think it beats that mark; but why would you see less than 600 for the sequel to Infinity War that has already broken endless trailer view records? Just curious, I'm not judging.

 

I don’t know much of anything about anything when it comes to audience preferences these days, but I don’t put much credence in trailer views except in the most broad sense.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

I don’t know much of anything about anything when it comes to audience preferences these days, but I don’t put much credence in trailer views except in the most broad sense.

I imagined Green Mile era Tom Hanks saying this, and I want him to play you in the movie adaptation of this forum (next big craze after the superhero movies die down is adapting internet forums, we all know it!)

 

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Toy Story 4: The teasers released so far have been an interesting choice for Pixar. Neither reveal anything about the plot and just reveal new characters. The first teaser got overshadowed by Pikachu, but there was still some chatter online. As much as another film in this franchise seems pointless, a lot of people still want to see this, including the target demo of families. This will do well, but Pets will dampen its gross a bit. I am expecting Pixar to win this battle though, especially when there is not any new non-Disney family competition until Dora. 95/320 (3.37x)

Shiiiiiiiit. 130/450

Edited December 30, 2018 by reddevil19

[TMP]

all these Dark Phoenix under $100m predictions remind me of when people said Fan2astic Beasts was locked for over $200m dom.

inb4 X-Men is the highest grossing comic film of June 2018 

[DAJK]

I like these predictions so far, save for Pikachu doing only half what Han predicted (if that). Dark Phoenix I still have hope will do like 45/120

[FantasticBeasts]

Toy Story will go sub 300m for sure. Possibly sub 250m.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

I don’t know much of anything about anything when it comes to audience preferences these days, but I don’t put much credence in trailer views except in the most broad sense.

Not an unwarranted point of view by any means, my friend.

 

But, Infinity War did make 678M DOM and could've made more, had not it been for Deadpool 2 in its 4th weekend. And this has even more hype as those who saw it want to see how they resolve the cliffhanger of the last one. I think that, while it could take a decrease (Age Of Ultron and The Last Jedi proved that you can never take even the big ones for granted), I think it's unlikely that it misses 600.

[Neucentro]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 14

 

Men in Black: International: OH SNAP oh snap oh snap. Can I just how how FUN this movie looks? The Fate of the Furious is the second best film in that franchise, and F. Gary Gray appears to be bringing that fun kinetic energy over to the MIB universe. Online reception isn’t terrible either despite people mad that Will Smith isn’t in the film or, GASP, a woman is the main character. It will probably fall in the same range as Ocean’s 8 and Ghostbusters barring excellent or horrible reviews. 45/145 (3.22x)

 

Son of Shaft: Does anyone actually care about this? Shaft came out almost twenty years ago and has not been remembered in the public conscience. Samuel L. Jackson is always fun, but the concept needs to be there for his movies to succeed (seeThe Hitman’s Bodyguardor the upcoming Glass). Netflix also picked up the international rights for this, so Warner Bros will not be putting much effort into this release. Bombs away (?). 8/16 (2x)

 

Shaft doing worse than Superfly?  That would be a huge disappointment. 

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Not an unwarranted point of view by any means, my friend.

 

But, Infinity War did make 678M DOM and could've made more, had not it been for Deadpool 2 in its 4th weekend. And this has even more hype as those who saw it want to see how they resolve the cliffhanger of the last one. I think that, while it could take a decrease (Age Of Ultron and The Last Jedi proved that you can never take even the big ones for granted), I think it's unlikely that it misses 600.

 

I don't really buy the underlined bits, but again, who am I to say? The first is unquantifiable and the second has been shown time and again to be wrong. It might be right, but I'm gonna guess no. tbh 600 is just a number I jumped on as being controversial and (possibly) achievable. It'll probably make more. But then again, I don't think it's gonna break the OW again and you do.

 

And, of course, for better or worse, I'm outside the entire bubble of interest here so what do I know.  

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Also, you forgot Fifty Shades Darker (100M+ views in 24h for the 1st teaser,

 

I said PG-13. 

[Neucentro]

4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

June 14

 

Shaft: The three Shaft generations is a great concept, and Tim Story’s done a couple good movies here and there before. Shaft is one of the more famous blaxploitation characters, so this will certainly do better than Superfly. Won’t be a massive hit, but it will find its audience. 20/50 (2.5x)

 

That's a more reasonable prediction.  I would not be surprised if it pulled Equalizer number.  That's a big "if" though. It will need substantial marketing.

Edited December 30, 2018 by Neucentro

[Rorschach]

I don’t quite see Dark Phoenix going under $100 mil like you guys are predicting. That said, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. I’d be lying if I said I don’t care about the franchise (outside of Deadpool) anymore because I really don’t and I get the sense that a lot of other people feel the same way. I think Ready Player One numbers are the ceiling for this.

[Eric the Ape]

Back from Poppins. Now gotta do my last predix for the month.

 

June 21

 

Child’s Play: Whatever executive at Orion Pictures decided to open this on the same day as Toy Story deserves a raise. Anyway, this seems like a real wildcard. The horror genre is killing the game, but most consider the Chucky franchise to be silly schlock. We got a straight-to-video sequel last year. However, this is a remake of the first film with a new cast, so it might get a new audience on board. Then again, Halloween showed that being a sequel can really help a film out. Just seems like a real hard one to pin down. Let’s just say an opening in the 30s and a total somewhere in the 70s to be safe. 33/72 (2.18x)

 

Grudge: I don’t think there will be two horror films on the same day, but let’s just assume this happens. This is another old horror franchise that isn’t really all that well-remembered or looked at fondly. But I guess there will be an audience for this, even if Child’s Play might steal some of its attention. 20/50 (2.5x)

 

Toy Story 4: Every time I see people (aka TOG being TOG) shouting that this will make less than 250M, I roll my eyes. Yes, Forky is weird. Yes, the teasers were overshadowed by Detective Pikachu. Yes, the third movie ended things perfectly. But the truth is, most audience members aren’t going to care.

 

General audiences want to see characters they love in a new adventure, nostalgia will still be strong, and it is still Toy Story. It’s up there with Nemo and Incredibles in terms of Pixar brands, and it has a whole month to itself in terms of family films until The Lion King and to a lesser extent Far From Home, so it should have decent legs. It can also benefit from the fact that Toy Story 3 came out 9 years ago. At this point, the kids that saw the third movie in theaters are now grown up and would likely be interested in seeing a new adventure with characters they love. To say nothing of 90s kids who have children of their own. Just put out a killer trailer, and everything will be fine. Like I said with Pets, follow-ups to big animated movies see their finished total drop in the 20s from the last movie, so let’s just assume it loses about 25% from its adjusted number.  It's been 9 years, so I think it's fair. (9 years. I was approaching middle school at that time. Christ, I’m old). 110/365 (3.32x)

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

  

I don't really buy the underlined bits, but again, who am I to say? The first is unquantifiable and the second has been shown time and again to be wrong. It might be right, but I'm gonna guess no. tbh 600 is just a number I jumped on as being controversial and (possibly) achievable. It'll probably make more. But then again, I don't think it's gonna break the OW again and you do.

 

And, of course, for better or worse, I'm outside the entire bubble of interest here so what do I know.  

Very debatable about the first being unquantifiable. Deadpool 2 made it drop over 60% DOM and gave it some rough holds OS as well. Considering that it had a fairly reasonable 2nd weekend hold and it dropped in the 40's for its 3rd weekend, anything that wasn't direct competition hunting down the exact same audience and opening to 100M+ (or anything close to that) probably wouldn't have caused the film to crash that hard. Maybe not even over 50%. Sure, DP2 was R-rated, but it still attracted a lot of teens and kids, as superhero films usually do... otherwise, it likely would've failed to gross 125M in 3 days. I'm not gonna cut dream scenarios or anything, but I'm sure AIW would have gotten to 690 without DP2, and probably 700 as well.

 

And about the second, well, it has also been shown time and time again to be right. I mean, look at Infinity War itself. A lot of us thought the hype for that wouldn't come to b.o. realization either and then it was what it was. Obviously, everything hinges on the wom (if it's a crowdpleasing film, it will surely make bank; if it's not that well recieved, it will either miss 600, or, depending on how high it opens, it won't blow past the 600 mark with all the ease in the world), but I personally have faith that the film will be good enough to get audiences going, even if it is 3 hours long as rumored. And, yeah, 3 hour length is really the only thing that could prevent it from breaking the OW record, because apart from that, it has pretty much everything in its wake to do it. (And to play advocate to past letdowns for a minute, Age Of Ultron was on track to break the OW record too but it had an abnormal Saturday drop, potentially caused by the Mayweather/Pacquiao fight that moved in between 300 to 400 million dollars in PPV business, which stalled it in its tracks; I feel like it would've reached the 210M OW predicts otherwise.)

 

But hey, different strokes for different folks. It's what makes discussing these things fun

Edited December 30, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Eric the Ape]

June 28

47 Meters Down: Uncaged: The 2017 hit no one saw coming is getting a sequel. Legs were amazing for the first one, but it feels like it'll be a "one and done" for a lot of audience members. The plot description makes it seem like it's just the same movie again, and I don't think people loved the first movie that much to see a follow-up, especially with none of the original cast. Maybe a better OW, but don't expect it to reach the same total or have the same legs. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

Limited Partners: Tiffany Haddish has a growing fanbase, while Rose Byrne has been in several hit films over the years. There also won’t be anything out for adult women specifically since The Hustle, so this should do well. Really depends on good reviews for it to cross 100M, but I’m optimistic that this will work as a counterprogramming flick. 28/95 (3.39x)

 

Danny Boyle/Richard Curtis Comedy: This will probably be big in the UK. Not so sure about in the US. The whole concept of a guy being the only person who remembers The Beatles just seems niche and unappealing to us Yanks. It’s a great creative team-up though, and will probably live on as a cult classic. 18/55 (3.06x)

 

Ford v Ferrari: Great cast, solid director, interesting premise. Has all of the components for a crowdpleasing summer adult drama. Feels like one of those sleeper hits few of us will see coming. 30/120 (4x)

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

June 28

47 Meters Down: Uncaged: The 2017 hit no one saw coming is getting a sequel. Legs were amazing for the first one, but it feels like it'll be a "one and done" for a lot of audience members. The plot description makes it seem like it's just the same movie again, and I don't think people loved the first movie that much to see a follow-up, especially with none of the original cast. Maybe a better OW, but don't expect it to reach the same total or have the same legs. 15/40 (2.67x)

 

Limited Partners: Tiffany Haddish has a growing fanbase, while Rose Byrne has been in several hit films over the years. There also won’t be anything out for adult women specifically since The Hustle, so this should do well. Really depends on good reviews for it to cross 100M, but I’m optimistic that this will work as a counterprogramming flick. 28/95 (3.39x)

 

Danny Boyle/Richard Curtis Comedy: This will probably be big in the UK. Not so sure about in the US. The whole concept of a guy being the only person who remembers The Beatles just seems niche and unappealing to us Yanks. It’s a great creative team-up though, and will probably live on as a cult classic. 18/55 (3.06x)

 

Ford v Ferrari: Great cast, solid director, interesting premise. Has all of the components for a crowdpleasing summer adult drama. Feels like one of those sleeper hits few of us will see coming. 30/120 (4x)

Man this weekend is packed. Like I know it's mostly different audiences but damn. IDK if the Danny Boyle movie should've moved here but whatever. That would be awesome for Ford v Ferrari. I assume that will probably do really well Overseas as well??? Also curious what the name is going to be. Mangold has it listed as "Le Mans 66" on his twitter, but I doubt that and really hope that isn't the title lol