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[mulderfox]

Am i hearing right Shazam is now a flop and not getting a sequel ? The world has gone crazy

[RealLyre]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

You have to check if they're doing comps in local currencies which can vary greatly over the years and yield far different exchange rates

 

China - AM did $105m.  Shazam is projected to do about $50m off a 32-33m o/w

 

AM opened to $3.9m in Brazil.  Finished with  $12.4m   Shazam  after two days including preview is at $848k

 

South Korea-  AM did $21m.    Shazam! as of Saturday is at 2,903,404 - should finish Sunday around $3.9m - might finish around $10m if that.

 

Mexico: AM opened with $5.3m / $14.67m finish    In $s Shazam! should open about the same (local currency is down about 25% since AM)

I should've expected that deadline would use shitty comps after they started with the First Avenger 🤦‍♂️ 🤦‍♀️

 

Shazam should still be able to do 65%-80% of Ant-Man's OS-China, no?

 

which will make or break $400M WW for Shazam, I hope it's closer to 80%.

 

 

[RealLyre]

Just now, mulderfox said:

Am i hearing right Shazam is now a flop and not getting a sequel ? The world has gone crazy

Shazam is not a flop.. even if it only does $350M WW, it will still be decently profitable 

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, mulderfox said:

Am i hearing right Shazam is now a flop and not getting a sequel ? The world has gone crazy

Some people’s refusal to acknowledge how far off this performance is for a well reviewed superhero movie is bewildering. 

[RealLyre]

5 minutes ago, kowhite said:

In all fairness, Poppins will probably be slightly profitable.  Dumbo, slightly unprofitable.  Not that anyone is going to be excited about either performance.

yeah I know, MPR is probably more than "slightly profitable" as it made back all of it's production budget in the theatrical run alone. I meant to say that those low-profile remakes would be huge hits if they had mid-tier budgets (less than 100M).

 

Spoiler

Dumbo is in a much much worse place than MPR tho 

 

 

[mulderfox]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

Shazam is not a flop.. even if it only does $350M WW, it will still be decently profitable 

 

Agreed and even if its not doing to good in China which was a given with the subject matter of the

Spoiler

supernatural and possessions

. Its still only would collect 25% there. It will get a sequel its gonna be a hit for Warner.

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Some people’s refusal to acknowledge how far off this performance is for a well reviewed superhero movie is bewildering. 

Shazam's doing good and very well beyond its tracking domestically.

 

it's disappointing overseas (especially in China and SK) but international audiences never cared about reviews so idk why you expected "great reviews" to help this movie internationally at all 😕

 

 

 

[Barnack]

37 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

problem with those Disney remakes is that they cost too much to produce. 

 

if Dumbo and Mary Poppins Returns didn't cost 170M and 130M (respectively) to make, they would've been very profitable.

I imagine Poppins was a bit more expensive than that:

https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/09950815/filing-history

 

Using today exchange rate, 142m after tax credit by the end of august 2018.

 

172m dbo too, not bad at all.

[mulderfox]

10 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Some people’s refusal to acknowledge how far off this performance is for a well reviewed superhero movie is bewildering. 

Come on man Captain America 1 made 370 million from a budget of 170 million and was considered a hit. Shazam cost 80 million will likely make that too if not more. Thor 1 budget was 150 million made 449 million and was also a hit. You seriously don't think Shazam will be a hit too and get a sequel too ?

Edited April 6, 2019 by mulderfox

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, mulderfox said:

Come on man Captain America 1 made 370 million from a budget of 170 million and was considered a hit. Shazam cost 80 million will likely make that too if not more. Thor 1 budget was 150 million made 449 million and was also a hit. You seriously don't think Shazam will be a hit too and get a sequel too ?

Does it ever feel like some people have only been following movie box office since March 2016?  Today, I've been feeling that way at a lot of posts, when folks are claiming "disappointment" and "failure" for a superhero origin film that will make more than 2x its budget JUST domestically (and I think it's going 2.5X+ DOM:)...sigh...but you had a great post:)...

Edited April 6, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Daenys]

28 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Some people’s refusal to acknowledge how far off this performance is for a well reviewed superhero movie is bewildering. 

 

Spider-verse says hello.

[LordNox]

17 minutes ago, mulderfox said:

Come on man Captain America 1 made 370 million from a budget of 170 million and was considered a hit. Shazam cost 80 million will likely make that too if not more. Thor 1 budget was 150 million made 449 million and was also a hit. You seriously don't think Shazam will be a hit too and get a sequel too ?

That is actually a great point. If Captain America managed to make a profit from a 370M box office with a 170M budget its literally impossible for Shazam with a 90-100M budget and a probable 370M box office to not turn a profit after home video sales and streaming.

 

Sure its disappointing that Shazam is bombing in Asia but its much better from a box office perspective that Shazam is doing relatively well domestically instead of Shazam bombing in the US and doing well in China.

 

WB will likely earn a bigger profit from Shazam than they did from Rampage, due to budget reasons and because Shazam will do better in the US than Rampage did.

 

As long as you only earn 25 % profit for the studio from China its only if you do very bigs sums in China like Aquaman did that makes China important for your box office profits. Otherwise you are looking at pretty small profit from China even if the movie reaches 100M there.

[RealLyre]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 a superhero origin film that will make more than 2x its budget JUST domestically (and I think it's going 2.5X+ DOM:)...sigh...but you had a great post:)...

you think Shazam will do 225M domestically? the opening looks like to be around 53M~ excluding early previews so that number would be a 4.2x multi. even A Quiet Place could only maintain a 3.75x multi against IW last year and it was targeting a diff demo.

 

I think Shazam legs could've been closer to AQP's if it didn't have EG 3 weeks later but going even beyond that to 4.2x sounds too high to me.

 so I'm sticking with 3x-3.2x multi for now

 

 

[TalismanRing]

The second set of numbers is the major reason the film was considered very financially successful

Captain America: The First Avenger (2011)

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Captain-America-The-First-Avenger#tab=video-sales

 

Theatrical Performance

Domestic Box Office $176,654,505  

International Box Office $193,915,271  

Worldwide Box Office $370,569,776  

 

Home Market Performance

Est. Domestic DVD Sales $50,300,729  

Est. Domestic Blu-ray Sales $103,167,217  

Total Est. Domestic Video Sales $153,467,946  

[Darth Lehnsherr]

30 minutes ago, mulderfox said:

Come on man Captain America 1 made 370 million from a budget of 170 million and was considered a hit. Shazam cost 80 million will likely make that too if not more. Thor 1 budget was 150 million made 449 million and was also a hit. You seriously don't think Shazam will be a hit too and get a sequel too ?

I'll be honest I think Disney would have hesitated in a Cap sequel had Avengers not been as successful as it was. 

[boyamama]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

you think Shazam will do 225M domestically? the opening looks like to be around 53M~ excluding early previews so that number would be a 4.2x multi. even A Quiet Place could only maintain a 3.75x multi against IW last year and it was targeting a diff demo.

 

I think Shazam legs could've been closer to AQP's if it didn't have EG 3 weeks later but going even beyond that to 4.2x sounds too high to me.

 so I'm sticking with 3x-3.2x multi for now

 

 

lmfao he say 2,5X  not 225M ...2,5X= 125M DOM...lol

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, LordNox said:

That is actually a great point. If Captain America managed to make a profit from a 370M box office with a 170M budget its literally impossible for Shazam with a 90-100M budget and a probable 370M box office to not turn a profit after home video sales and streaming.

 

Sure its disappointing that Shazam is bombing in Asia but its much better from a box office perspective that Shazam is doing relatively well domestically instead of Shazam bombing in the US and doing well in China.

 

WB will likely earn a bigger profit from Shazam than they did from Rampage, due to budget reasons and because Shazam will do better in the US than Rampage did.

 

As long as you only earn 25 % profit for the studio from China its only if you do very bigs sums in China like Aquaman did that makes China important for your box office profits. Otherwise you are looking at pretty small profit from China even if the movie reaches 100M there.

Even adding P&A, Shazam! should be close to the green even before it hits the ancillary market.  It's more than fine.

 

Rampage with it's budget, back end for Rock and US./China split might not make a profit even after ancillaries.

[mulderfox]

4 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I'll be honest I think Disney would have hesitated in a Cap sequel had Avengers not been as successful as it was. 

Maybe but Shazam will be much more profitable from its theattrical gross and will have no problem spawning a sequel.

[boyamama]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

I'll be honest I think Disney would have hesitated in a Cap sequel had Avengers not been as successful as it was. 

i remember cap-avengers not from disney/buena vista production

[RealLyre]

Just now, boyamama said:

lmfao he say 2,5X  not 225M ...2,5X= 125M DOM...lol

oh my bad, I thought he meant 2.5x its budget domestically cus he said it will make more than 2x its budget JUST domestically