Weekend Thread: Friday Estimates: Pika pi! 20.7m, Assemble! 16.1m, Anne Hathaway! 4m, Cheerleaders: Endgame 1.5m, LotR: Origins 825k

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Avatree said:

i think chloe zhao is directing Eternals not Black widow? not sure there is a BW director yet.

Yep, my mistake - it's Cate Shortland who was hired even before Zhao.  they're already filming in the UK.

 

Wow, what a time - two women directors in one super franchise the same year  - enough to actually get confused about.

[Thrylos 7]

Pokémon is overestimated and endgame underestimated. Endgame worldwide at 2.490 million with actuals.

[sfran43]

<< PREVIOUS	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Rank* Title Friday 5/10 (Estimates) Saturday 5/11 (Estimates) Sunday 5/12 (Estimates) Monday 5/13 1 AVENGERS: ENDGAME Buena Vista 4,662 $16,060,000 +113.8% / $3,445 $676,505,739 / 15 $27,447,000 +70.9% / $5,887 $703,952,739 / 16 $19,547,000 -28.8% / $4,193 $723,499,739 / 17 N/A 2 POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU Warner Bros. 4,202 $20,630,000 -- / $4,910 $20,630,000 / 1 $20,480,000 -0.7% / $4,874 $41,110,000 / 2 $16,890,000 -17.5% / $4,020 $58,000,000 / 3 N/A 3 THE HUSTLE United Artists Releasing 3,007 $3,986,331 -- / $1,326 $3,986,331 / 1 $4,340,894 +8.9% / $1,444 $8,327,225 / 2 $5,209,073 +20% / $1,732 $13,536,298 / 3 N/A 4 THE INTRUDER (2019) Sony / Screen Gems 2,222 $1,685,000 +145.9% / $758 $16,060,126 / 8 $2,845,000 +68.8% / $1,280 $18,905,126 / 9 $2,070,000 -27.2% / $932 $20,975,126 / 10 N/A 5 LONG SHOT Lionsgate/Summit 3,230 $1,656,000 +107% / $513 $15,267,935 / 8 $2,477,000 +49.6% / $767 $17,744,935 / 9 $1,992,000 -19.6% / $617 $19,736,935 / 10 N/A 6 POMS STX Entertainment 2,750 $1,500,000 -- / $545 $1,500,000 / 1 $1,680,000 +12% / $611 $3,180,000 / 2 $1,930,000 +14.9% / $702 $5,110,000 / 3 N/A 7 UGLYDOLLS STX Entertainment 3,652 $922,000 +193.6% / $252 $11,282,796 / 8 $1,710,000 +85.5% / $468 $12,992,796 / 9 $1,280,000 -25.1% / $350 $14,272,796 / 10 N/A 8 BREAKTHROUGH Fox 1,902 $546,000 +100.1% / $287 $35,186,806 / 24 $958,000 +75.5% / $504 $36,144,806 / 25 $962,000 +0.4% / $506 $37,106,806 / 26 N/A 9 TOLKIEN Fox Searchlight 1,495 $825,000 -- / $552 $825,000 / 1 $715,000 -13.3% / $478 $1,540,000 / 2 $613,000 -14.3% / $410 $2,153,000 / 3 N/A 10 CAPTAIN MARVEL  Buena Vista 1,504 $477,000 +102.5% / $317 $422,441,079 / 64 $792,000 +66% / $527 $423,233,079 / 65 $544,000 -31.3% / $362 $423,777,079 / 66 N/A 11 THE CURSE OF LA LLORONA  Warner Bros. (New Line) 1,185 $510,000 +136.6% / $431 $50,110,031 / 22 $780,000 +52.9% / $660 $50,890,031 / 23 $510,000 -34.6% / $430 $51,400,031 / 24 N/A 12 SHAZAM! Warner Bros. (New Line) 936 $270,000 +119.2% / $288 $136,338,798 / 36 $455,000 +68.5% / $486 $136,793,798 / 37 $340,000 -25.3% / $363 $137,133,798 / 38 N/A - LITTLE Universal 586 $128,000 +68.3% / $218 $39,151,700 / 29 $267,000 +108.6% / $456 $39,418,700 / 30 $227,000 -15% / $387 $39,645,700 / 31 N/A - DUMBO (2019) Buena Vista 837 $129,000 +46.1% / $154 $110,384,289 / 43 $262,000 +103.1% / $313 $110,646,289 / 44 $177,000 -32.4% / $211 $110,823,289 / 45 N/A - STUDENT OF THE YEAR 2 FIP 190 $140,000 -- / $737 $140,000 / 1 $178,000 +27.1% / $937 $318,000 / 2 $120,000 -32.6% / $632 $438,000 / 3 N/A - AMAZING GRACE (2019) Neon 260 $75,000 +47.1% / $288 $3,046,977 / 155 $139,000 +85.3% / $535 $3,185,977 / 156 $98,000 -29.5% / $377 $3,283,977 / 157 N/A - US Universal 266 $75,000 +70.5% / $282 $174,231,380 / 50 $109,000 +45.3% / $410 $174,340,380 / 51 $65,000 -40.4% / $244 $174,405,380 / 52 N/A - PET SEMATARY (2019) Paramount 304 $76,000 +86.4% / $250 $54,054,700 / 36 $103,000 +35.5% / $339 $54,157,700 / 37 $56,000 -45.6% / $184 $54,213,700 / 38 N/A - PENGUINS (DISNEYNATURE) Buena Vista 285 $66,000 +4% / $232 $6,988,984 / 24 $40,000 -39.4% / $140 $7,028,984 / 25 $49,000 +22.5% / $172 $7,077,984 / 26 N/A - HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD Universal 187 $33,000 +149.9% / $176 $160,030,730 / 78 $58,000 +75.8% / $310 $160,088,730 / 79 $42,000 -27.6% / $225 $160,130,730 / 80 N/A - BIGGEST LITTLE FARM Neon 5 $56,354 -- / $11,271 $56,354 / 1 $25,519 -54.7% / $5,104 $81,873 / 2 $19,139 -25% / $3,828 $101,012 / 3 N/A

[Avatree]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

Yep, my mistake - it's Cate Shortland who was hired even before Zhao.  they're already filming in the UK.

 

Wow, what a time - two women directors in one super franchise the same year  - enough to actually get confused about. 

Did not realise it already started filming. Thanks.

[sfran43]

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$63,054,000	-57.2%	4,662	-	$13,525	$723,499,739	$356	3
2	N	Pokemon Detective Pikachu	WB	$58,000,000	-	4,202	-	$13,803	$58,000,000	$150	1
3	N	The Hustle	UAR	$13,536,298	-	3,007	-	$4,502	$13,536,298	-	1
4	2	The Intruder (2019)	SGem	$6,600,000	-39.2%	2,222	-	$2,970	$20,975,126	$8	2
5	3	Long Shot	LG/S	$6,125,000	-37.1%	3,230	-	$1,896	$19,736,935	-	2
6	N	Poms	STX	$5,110,000	-	2,750	-	$1,858	$5,110,000	-	1
7	4	Uglydolls	STX	$3,920,000	-54.4%	3,652	-	$1,073	$14,272,796	$45	2
8	6	Breakthrough	Fox	$2,466,000	-36.9%	1,902	-982	$1,297	$37,106,806	$14	4
9	N	Tolkien	FoxS	$2,153,000	-	1,495	-	$1,440	$2,153,000	-	1
10	5	Captain Marvel	BV	$1,813,000	-57.7%	1,504	-739	$1,205	$423,777,079	-	10
11	7	The Curse of La Llorona	WB (NL)	$1,800,000	-51.4%	1,185	-1,355	$1,519	$51,400,031	$9	4
12	8	Shazam!	WB (NL)	$1,065,000	-57.5%	936	-1,585	$1,138	$137,133,798	$100	6
13	10	Little	Uni.	$622,000	-56.2%	586	-773	$1,061	$39,645,700	$20	5
14	9	Dumbo (2019)	BV	$568,000	-62.4%	837	-831	$679	$110,823,289	$170	7
15	N	Student of the Year 2	FIP	$438,000	-	190	-	$2,305	$438,000	-	1
16	14	Amazing Grace (2019)	Neon	$312,000	-17.3%	260	-3	$1,200	$3,283,977	-	23
17	17	Red Joan	IFC	$252,164	-1.6%	193	+53	$1,307	$898,026	-	4
18	13	Us	Uni.	$249,000	-49.7%	266	-333	$936	$174,405,380	$20	8
19	12	Pet Sematary (2019)	Par.	$235,000	-53.3%	304	-351	$773	$54,213,700	$21	6
20	15	Penguins (Disneynature)	BV	$155,000	-52.9%	285	-767	$544	$7,077,984	-	4
21	26	The White Crow	SPC	$144,770	+52.5%	50	+31	$2,895	$397,903	-	3
22	48	Shadow	WGUSA	$135,400	+392.8%	47	+43	$2,881	$178,284	-	2
23	20	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World	Uni.	$133,000	-22.4%	187	-58	$711	$160,130,730	$129	12

[Minnale101]

STX has had 3 bombs in a row. That’s wild 

[baumer]

So end game is 300 million away from passing Avatar. It's got at least 130 million more here which would make it around 170 more overseas is what it means. It should pass it but it's a lot closer or tighter than I thought it would be.

[ScoobyDoo21]

Ugly Dolls opening a week before Detective Pikachu is dumb.

 

The Ow could be better, but it is clear People still care about Pokemon. No one cares about the Ugly Dolls toys.

Edited May 12, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[John Marston]

Dumbo managed to double its budget. Too bad they spent so much on it

 

Domestic:	$110,823,289	32.2%
+ Foreign:	$233,100,000	67.8%
= Worldwide:	$343,923,289

Domestic Summary

[Ms Lady Hawk]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

So end game is 300 million away from passing Avatar. It's got at least 130 million more here which would make it around 170 more overseas is what it means. It should pass it but it's a lot closer or tighter than I thought it would be.

It may be a nail biter. Fun to watch. China will be completely out of it in two/three weeks too. At this point, I would still bet on Endgame ending at about 2.82-2.85B. Goes without saying how epic a run we are witnessing. 

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Dumbo managed to double its budget. Too bad they spent so much on it

 

Domestic:	$110,823,289	32.2%
+ Foreign:	$233,100,000	67.8%
= Worldwide:	$343,923,289

Domestic Summary

Not sure how detective pikachu is 20 million less with over 50 models of Pokémon in it

 

this 1 elephant I guess cost half the budget lol 

[ScoobyDoo21]

5 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Dumbo managed to double its budget. Too bad they spent so much on it

 

Domestic:	$110,823,289	32.2%
+ Foreign:	$233,100,000	67.8%
= Worldwide:	$343,923,289

Domestic Summary

How does Dumbo cost so much? There was Barely any spectacle in that movie.

Edited May 12, 2019 by ScoobyDoo21

[Thrylos 7]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

So end game is 300 million away from passing Avatar. It's got at least 130 million more here which would make it around 170 more overseas is what it means. It should pass it but it's a lot closer or tighter than I thought it would be.

The way you describe it, it seems like a breeze. 170 million more after an 105 million weekend seems quite easy, even with competition (and the first true competition for it overseas is the Aladdin film not John Wick because John Wick films are extremely weak overseas).

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

So end game is 300 million away from passing Avatar. It's got at least 130 million more here which would make it around 170 more overseas is what it means. It should pass it but it's a lot closer or tighter than I thought it would be.

If it did mediocre every weekend and ended at 853 sure. But if it has some good holds and gets a final late bump from FFH (4-5 million over 3 weeks) 875 is more likely. A lot easier to hit it then.

 

Regardless the memorial Day forecast listed for passing Avatar is dead. 

 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Dumbo managed to double its budget. Too bad they spent so much on it

 

Domestic:	$110,823,289	32.2%
+ Foreign:	$233,100,000	67.8%
= Worldwide:	$343,923,289

Domestic Summary

 

Budget was reportedly from $150-170m so it might do OK in the end with ancillaries and running forever on Disney+ and selling Dumbo stuffies.

 

Still, if it was a better movie - or just a  more light hearted one that featured the rightfully loved main character more than dreary humans even then the budget would have been OK b/c it probably would have done much better domestically and probably around $500m WW.

 

There needs to be a stronger hand at the helm of Disney live action. I don't know if it's directly under Alan Horn or if there's another producer in charge as with the sub studios but whoever it is needs to changed or maybe more empowered for more quality/tonal control - or just choose directors who are a better match for these projects.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

How does Dumbo cost so much? There was Barely any spectacle in that movie.

Burton built HUGE detailed sets

[doublejack]

20 minutes ago, baumer said:

Pikachu has a devoted fan base but I don't think it's really the kind of film that is going to attract the casual movie audience. Take me for example. I love Ryan Reynolds but have no desire to go see a Pikachu movie. I know nothing about the video game I could care less about the video game and I have no interest in knowing anything about Pokemon.

 

Nice to see you too long shot have declined. I know it's not going to make a ton of money but maybe word of mouth can somehow get this film a 4 multiplier soican at least maybe break even.

Same situation here on Pika. Between four kids only the 10 year old wants to see it. My wife and I usually alternate "taking one for the team" and sit through something we have no desire to view just so the kids can. On Pika, between the fact that only one kid wanted to go and how the trailers looked, we both told her nope not gonna happen. She's going to go with her 18 year old cousin who also wants to see the movie.

 

It is just anecdotal evidence, but I know exactly 3 people who were excited for the movie. I agree the movie doesn't have appeal beyond the fanbase, and I think that fanbase isn't as large as some thought. There was all that hype about Pokemon Go a few years back, A study showed that typical players who downloaded it lost interest after an average of five weeks. It was a fad, nothing more.

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

How does Dumbo cost so much? There was Barely any spectacle in that movie.

yeah, no spectacle, no CGI and no big sets. sure.

 

 

Edited May 12, 2019 by Avatree

[cdsacken]

6 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

It may be a nail biter. Fun to watch. China will be completely out of it in two/three weeks too. At this point, I would still bet on Endgame ending at about 2.82-2.85B. Goes without saying how epic a run we are witnessing. 

Pretty much my exact range for it. Way more dramatic with it taking another 3-4 weeks or so to pass it.

[That One Girl]

3 minutes ago, ScoobyDoo21 said:

How does Dumbo cost so much? There was Barely any spectacle in that movie.

 

Those sets were pretty huge.