Memorial Weekend Thread: 4-Day Actuals - Aladdin $116.81M | John Wick 3 $30.97M | Avengers Endgame $22.06M | Pokemon DP $17.25M

[Deja23]

12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

With reserved seating becoming ubiquitous now really is the time to attempt tiered pricing for films.  Theaters and studios can worry less about people buying cheaper tickets to sneak into more expensive films.  

Studios and theaters are going to have to adapt to the ease and cheapness of streaming like they did with TV in the 1950s and 60s.  Once again it's the spectacles that are driving cinema.  Lowering prices (not raising for the big movies) could bring a lot more people back to the movies.

Agreed. People will be willing to spend $5-10 (depending on where you live) on any random movie. Especially if it’s a group/family. But paying $16+ for a 2D movie every weekend isn’t feasible for most moviegoers. That’s more than I pay for Netflix each month. That’s why the blockbusters get significantly more attendees and many low budget films make less than $15m on OW. Most people want to feel like they’re getting their money’s worth by taking the time to drive to a theater/hire a babysitter/etc. with spectacle that won’t look as impressive on their TV. One of the theaters I go to has higher prices for recliner seats compared to regular ones, despite them all being in one auditorium. I know most theaters don’t have this option, and it’s only a $1 difference, but still. Lower prices for smaller films makes sense. Either that or go for the subscription thing. Maybe Regal can do something similar to A-List as some areas have no AMC theaters. And I thought Atom was attempting something similar too. 

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

While that is indeed a better number it's still down 64% from the week before, and at this stage that's not good, no matter how you want to look at it. This gets us maybe $5 million more, and I'm being optimistic here (because if we see another 60% drop this weekend too then it's game over, for good), when we need $15-20 million more (on top of what we know it's getting).

 

So slow down a bit and don't count your chickens before the eggs hatch.

the drop is not 64%  last weekend we had china and that added 7 million more, the drop for this weekend os was 56-57%

Edited May 28, 2019 by john2000

[AlexMA]

4 minutes ago, druv10 said:

BOM's EG page says until Sunday not Monday.

 

$1,883,456,050

5/26/19

 

Probably an error, but it's a good number regardless. Only 100M away now.

"Only", you're saying it like it's easy. North America is optimistically $45-50 million more at this point (50 is REALLY optimistic) and OS is $35 million or so. So like I said previously, instead of $20 million behind Avatar we might be $15 million now (very optimistic and basically ignoring most of the competition coming in June), which still doesn't get us there.

 

That $100 million would have been a tiny hill two weeks ago, the sort you don't even slow down while going over, but now it's frigging K2 man! Not saying you can't scale it, people have, but you're much more likely to die trying than get up there and back.

[tawasal]

 

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$803,631,736	4,662	$357,115,007	4,662	4/26/19
2	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$678,815,482	4,474	$257,698,183	4,474	4/27/18
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$623,357,910	4,349	$207,438,708	4,349	5/4/12
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$459,005,868	4,276	$191,271,109	4,276	5/1/15
TOTAL:			$2,564,810,996	-	-	-	-
AVERAGE:			$641,202,749	4,440	$253,380,752	4,440	-

 

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$2,687.1	$803.6	29.9%	$1,883.5	70.1%	2019
2	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$2,048.4	$678.8	33.1%	$1,369.5	66.9%	2018
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$1,518.8	$623.4	41%	$895.5	59%	2012
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$1,405.4	$459.0	32.7%	$946.4	67.3%	2015
TOTAL:			$7,659.7	$2,564.8	33.5%	$5,094.9	66.5%	-
AVERAGE:			$1,914.9	$641.2	33.5%	$1,273.7	66.5%	-

 

 

Looking at this list, really puts things in perspective. All of the doom and gloom at the legs of EG but looking at the overall picture, holy crap!!!

yeah the crazy increases from iw and eg at least in raw numbers, wont  happen again at least for quite some time, and even if we look at % , you still have an increase around 33-35% holy shit

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

"Only", you're saying it like it's easy. North America is optimistically $45-50 million more at this point (50 is REALLY optimistic) and OS is $35 million or so. So like I said previously, instead of $20 million behind Avatar we might be $15 million now (very optimistic and basically ignoring most of the competition coming in June), which still doesn't get us there.

 

That $100 million would have been a tiny hill two weeks ago, the sort you don't even slow down while going over, but now it's frigging K2 man! Not saying you can't scale it, people have, but you're much more likely to die trying than get up there and back.

compare to where it was 2 weeks before and so far, yeah only 100 million thats the right way to put it, next milestone will be 2.7 and that will probably happen by friday

[druv10]

No movie until EG was within $600M of Avatar so for it to finish within 15M+/-  is beyond mind-bogglingly crazy. I do think Disney would re-release it if it's that close but I can't be disappointed with over $2.7B WW, that's over 500M more than the Titanic WW. It's a hit everywhere, not one territory it under performed, not one. Hell, Japan notorious for under performing SH movies is going over $50M. The big picture it over performed to a point where Avatar WW is in reach, think about that for a second.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, druv10 said:

No movie until EG was within $600M of Avatar so for it to finish within 15M+/-  is beyond mind-bogglingly crazy. I do think Disney would re-release it if it's that close but I can't be disappointed with over $2.7B WW, that's over 500M more than the Titanic WW. It's a hit everywhere, not one territory it under performed, not one. Hell, Japan notorious for under performing SH movies is going over $50M. The big picture it over performed to a point where Avatar WW is in reach, think about that for a second.

Yes. it broke out every country. Even Europe over performed big time. I am sure Disney will expand in August and nudge it over the Juggernaut.

[Legion Again]

If it actually did cough up an extra 4M for the Sun total, the we’re back on the hunt for 1300.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, oMeriMombatti said:

Disney with the 3 biggest OW's this year with A:EG followed by CM and now Aladdin.

Disney produced movies will have top 8, maybe 9 OWs this year as far as I can see.

[AlexMA]

Just now, druv10 said:

No movie until EG was within $600M of Avatar so for it to finish within 15M+/-  is beyond mind-bogglingly crazy. I do think Disney would re-release it if it's that close but I can't be disappointed with over $2.7B WW, that's over 500M more than the Titanic WW. It's a hit everywhere, not one territory it under performed, not one. Hell, Japan notorious for under performing SH movies is going over $50M. The big picture it over performed to a point where Avatar WW is in reach, think about that for a second.

That's exactly the right attitude, it's $2.7 billion, that's insane! No movie came even close to Avatar in 9 years and then comes a sequel of all things and will probably finish $20-15 million away. That's a huge win, I mean come on. Yeah sure it might not be number 1 domestically, overseas or worldwide, but it's the only movie that's in 2nd place (with a very respectable lead I might add, so probably won't move for more than a couple years) everywhere.

 

TFA is number 1 domestically but 6th OS and "only" 4th worldwide.

Avatar is 1st OS and worldwide but 3rd in NA.

Endgame is 2nd domestically, 2nd OS and 2nd worldwide. That's about as consistent as you can possibly be at the box office. In a world where James Cameron isn't a time-traveler with supernatural powers over the box office Endgame would have absolutely dominated two of those three charts.

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

"Only", you're saying it like it's easy. North America is optimistically $45-50 million more at this point (50 is REALLY optimistic) and OS is $35 million or so. So like I said previously, instead of $20 million behind Avatar we might be $15 million now (very optimistic and basically ignoring most of the competition coming in June), which still doesn't get us there.

 

That $100 million would have been a tiny hill two weeks ago, the sort you don't even slow down while going over, but now it's frigging K2 man! Not saying you can't scale it, people have, but you're much more likely to die trying than get up there and back.

I won't even bother replying with too much detail because I'm busy sipping my iced coffee, but you are getting the numbers all wrong, LMFAO. This weekend, regardless of the drop compared to last weekend is a massive win to Endgame. All it needs to get around $50m OS-C is to behave just like it's doing now. 

 

Look on the Endgame OT, I've done a breakdown there. Endgame, like I've been saying for a good while it's doing completely fine to beat Avatar. 

[ZattMurdock]

12 minutes ago, druv10 said:

No movie until EG was within $600M of Avatar so for it to finish within 15M+/-  is beyond mind-bogglingly crazy. I do think Disney would re-release it if it's that close but I can't be disappointed with over $2.7B WW, that's over 500M more than the Titanic WW. It's a hit everywhere, not one territory it under performed, not one. Hell, Japan notorious for under performing SH movies is going over $50M. The big picture it over performed to a point where Avatar WW is in reach, think about that for a second.

Druv, my man, hear me and rejoice: it won't need it. Avatar is going down without a re-release.

[Moses]

1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

So could that account for $0.5-0.7 million extra OS? Because let's be honest, after a $16.3 million weekend a $3 million Monday is extremely impressive (and highly unlikely at this stage), so there was something there alright. Guess we should expect $2 million on Tuesday so between that and domestic Endgame will hit $2.69 billion today. The magic $2.7 billion mark will be made on Friday or early Saturday at the latest.

May be they updated the previous week days

[AlexMA]

3 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

I won't even bother replying with too much detail because I'm busy sipping my iced coffee, but you are getting the numbers all wrong, LMFAO. This weekend, regardless of the drop compared to last weekend is a massive win to Endgame. All it needs to get around $50m OS-C is to behave just like it's doing now. 

 

Look on the Endgame OT, I've done a breakdown there. Endgame, like I've been saying for a good while it's doing completely fine to beat Avatar. 

You can continue to sip whatever you want and delude yourself all you want, I know what I'm talking about and my numbers are very good. That's because unlike you I can leave all my biases behind when talking about numbers. I can distinguish between what I'd like to happen and what's actually most likely to happen, which I guess is a rare quality, even on here (where you would think that wouldn't be the case, but oh well). 

 

Look, I really don't want to be mean, I completely get where you're coming from, I was probably you many years ago, but you have to learn to separate your bias from actual number crunching because what you end up doing is just forcing the numbers to go where you want them to go instead of letting them show you where they're actually headed, so you can accurately predict where they'll be at some point in the future.

[m3racer123]

24 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Disney produced movies will have top 8, maybe 9 OWs this year as far as I can see.

It Chapter Two should open higher than Aladdin, plus Joker and Jumanji 3 both have a decent shot. I agree that the big 6 Disney movies (CM, EG, TS4, TLK, F2, SW9) plus Spider-Man (technically Sony) will be the top 7 OWs.

[estebanJ]

Aladdin vs Godzilla vs Rocketman will be interesting this weekend.

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, m3racer123 said:

It Chapter Two should open higher than Aladdin, plus Joker and Jumanji 3 both have a decent shot. I agree that the big 6 Disney movies (CM, EG, TS4, TLK, F2, SW9) plus Spider-Man (technically Sony) will be the top 7 OWs.

Ah, It 2 is the non-Disney movie that I was forgetting. I dunno if Jumanji will beat Aladdin in December, but I suppose it’s possible.

[AndyChrono]

1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

So could that account for $0.5-0.7 million extra OS? Because let's be honest, after a $16.3 million weekend a $3 million Monday is extremely impressive (and highly unlikely at this stage), so there was something there alright. Guess we should expect $2 million on Tuesday so between that and domestic Endgame will hit $2.69 billion today. The magic $2.7 billion mark will be made on Friday or early Saturday at the latest.

Yes, it can. Last Monday Canada had a holiday (here's the thread for that day where Charlie had the breakdown) and pulled in an extra 0.8m or so above what it normally would have, and the UK is a larger market than Canada.

[IronJimbo]

53 minutes ago, druv10 said:

No movie until EG was within $600M of Avatar so for it to finish within 15M+/-  is beyond mind-bogglingly crazy. I do think Disney would re-release it if it's that close but I can't be disappointed with over $2.7B WW, that's over 500M more than the Titanic WW. It's a hit everywhere, not one territory it under performed, not one. Hell, Japan notorious for under performing SH movies is going over $50M. The big picture it over performed to a point where Avatar WW is in reach, think about that for a second.

no movie was within 970m of Avatr when it was released.

no none-Jim movie was within 1650m of Avatar when it was released