Weekend Thread: Weekend Actuals - Spider-Man FFH $45.35M | Toy Story 4 $20.95M | CRAWL $12.01M | STUBER $8.23M | Yesterday $6.70M | Aladdin 6.17M

[Cap]

I am so sad I didn't og with my gut and put Crawl as over 12M YES in the Summer Games.  God, please come in at 11.98M

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-it-chapter-two/

 

It: Chapter Two: 110-150 range. 136/305

 

OUATIH: 48/158.5 (-4%)

Hobbs & Shaw: 94/230  (-6%)

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

They legit had me convinced Crawl was gonna be some 3m opening 10% disaster from the marketing (and lack thereof). Paramount ceases to be a functional studio in the modern age. Only a matter of time before they're absorbed into The Mouse, and honestly I won't even be mad about it. At least they'll be competent again. 

Star Trek/Star Wars crossover gonna be lit. 

[XXR vs XXR]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

[charlie Jatinder]

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

It's actually recovered very very very slightly locally.  But when I say that I mean it's sold an average of 16 tickets the last few days (haven't checked today's yet) when it had been doing an average of five or so after the first day of sales. 

 

It finally passed the first day of Detective Pikachu's pre-sales last night (H&S: 162 | Pika: 158).  That's after fourteen days of pre=sales, mind. 

 

Maybe Shawn is seeing something I/we ain't. But right now I don't think 90m OW is on the table.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Porthos

[Shawn Robbins]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's actually recovered very very very slightly locally.  But when I say that I mean it's sold an average of 16 tickets the last few days (haven't checked today's yet) when it had been doing an average of five or so after the first day of sales. 

 

It finally passed the first day of Detective Pikachu's pre-sales last night (H&S: 162 | Pika: 158).  That's after fourteen days of pre=sales, mind. 

 

Maybe Shawn is seeing something I/we ain't. But right now I don't think 90m OW is on the table.

Tracking just slightly behind Fate of the Furious and pretty far ahead of MI: Fallout at same point based on data I looked at this week. We thought about lowering it more, but that feels a little reactionary three weeks out. Wouldn't rule it out though, even though this feels like walk-up kind of movie IMO.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's actually recovered very very very slightly locally.  But when I say that I mean it's sold an average of 16 tickets the last few days (haven't checked today's yet) when it had been doing an average of five or so after the first day of sales. 

 

It finally passed the first day of Detective Pikachu's pre-sales last night (H&S: 162 | Pika: 158).  That's after fourteen days of pre=sales, mind. 

 

Maybe Shawn is seeing something I/we ain't. But right now I don't think 90m OW is on the table.

*sees Shawn's gave the post a like*

 

I INTENTIONALLY DIDN'T TAG YOU WITH MY FIRST REACTION POST @Shawn!!!

(didn't want to make it look like I was calling you out )

 

But if you are seeing something that we ain't in the Tracking thread, love to hear it.  I always learn more whenever you post your thoughts about box office forecasts. 👍

 

EDIT::: And crossposted.   Thanks for the thoughts there, I'll keep them in mind.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Tracking just slightly behind Fate of the Furious and pretty far ahead of MI: Fallout at same point based on data I looked at this week. We thought about lowering it more, but that feels a little reactionary three weeks out. Wouldn't rule it out though, even though this feels like walk-up kind of movie IMO.

Interesting.

Fair enough then.  Maybe it's just one of those things that had little to no initial pre-sales and just ramps up later on.

Thanks again for the reply!

 

EDIT::

 

Tagging @CoolEric258 @VenomXXR @Menor so they can see this post as well.

Edited July 13, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

BTW, @Shawn, you may not be aware but Hobbs & Shaw lost all of its 3D showings nationwide.  No idea why, but we've had confirmation from people who work at theaters that the 3D run got yanked domestically.  Not sure if it would impact your forecast much at all, but I thought I should let you know that in case you didn't.

[TMP]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Only a matter of time before they're absorbed into The Mouse, and honestly I won't even be mad about it. 

Paramount will be broken down like Fox was and have a 4-5 film cap. And that's before the anti-trust laws it'd break. Fanboys will be happy though, at least.

[XXR vs XXR]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Interesting.

Fair enough then.  Maybe it's just one of those things that had little to no initial pre-sales and just ramps up later on.

Thanks again for the reply!

 

EDIT::

 

Tagging @CoolEric258 @VenomXXR @Menor so they can see this post as well.

 

Checked my theater and we're out 26 tickets sold for previews. That's ahead of SLOP2 but well behind everything else I've tracked this year.  It's less than half of TS4's first 8 hours of sales and 9 less than Pikachu's first day. 

Edited July 13, 2019 by VenomXXR

[Shawn Robbins]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Interesting.

Fair enough then.  Maybe it's just one of those things that had little to no initial pre-sales and just ramps up later on.

Thanks again for the reply!

 

EDIT::

 

Tagging @CoolEric258 @VenomXXR @Menor so they can see this post as well.

You bet! Yeah, I have to admit the presales made me double check things quite a bit recently -- not to mention all of June.

 

Range-wise, I'd say our floor is around $70M right now -- so we're definitely on the bullish end with that pinpoint number at $94M.

[Shawn Robbins]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BTW, @Shawn, you may not be aware but Hobbs & Shaw lost all of its 3D showings nationwide.  No idea why, but we've had confirmation from people who work at theaters that the 3D run got yanked domestically.  Not sure if it would impact your forecast much at all, but I thought I should let you know that in case you didn't.

I'll have to double check our models. I wouldn't imagine we factored heavy 3D sales in, but it's possible. What surprises me is the lack of PLF showtimes I'm seeing in my area, but that may be localized and very temporary.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I'll have to double check our models. I wouldn't imagine we factored heavy 3D sales in, but it's possible. What surprises me is the lack of PLF showtimes I'm seeing in my area, but that may be localized and very temporary.

Seeing the same thing in Sacto.  If I had to guess it's theaters waiting and seeing how TLK performs at the PLF level before committing. I say that because a couple of locals said ef it and put TLK on their IMAX on Thursday night (Aug 1).  OW of Aug 2nd - Aug 4th itself is clear though.

 

 

Edited July 13, 2019 by Porthos

[Water Bottle]

Hi @Shawn

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

$13.27m Friday 

[JohnnyGossamer]

Crawl's a big smile. Get exactly what you pay for... No nonsense gator baiter. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Easy one.

[75Live]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Easy one.

 

I actually have that comic 😛