Thor: Love and Thunder | July 8, 2022 | Directed by Oscar Winner Taika Waititi | Ninth most profitable movie of 2022

[Valonqar]

It's up to 75% 6.9 from 67 reviews. It's going to be a yo-yo from this point I guess, down-up, down-up. But anyway, big takeaway is that TGM or Ragnarok reception is not happening and no one expected it anyway even when Best MCU Movie Eva and Better Than Ragnarok tweets started to pour in. So MOM 2.0 basically.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

not sure why Thor 4 should make as much as MoM. That movie felt way more hyped

Summer legs, dead (relatively) July/August and less frontloading. I’ll also bet good money the reception is better domestically. OS it may not make as much because the humor doesn’t translate but DOM will be close.

[keysersoze123]

I am predicting 140m OW/370M domestic/480m OS (Strong $ plus no China/Russia) - 850m WW

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am predicting 140m OW/370M domestic/480m OS (Strong $ plus no China/Russia) - 850m WW

This looks about right. Typical MCU multiplier (like 2.65)

[Factcheck]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

It's up to 75% 6.9 from 67 reviews. It's going to be a yo-yo from this point I guess, down-up, down-up. But anyway, big takeaway is that TGM or Ragnarok reception is not happening and no one expected it anyway even when Best MCU Movie Eva and Better Than Ragnarok tweets started to pour in. So MOM 2.0 basically.

Wait for audience score, if it gets B+ score then it's MoM 2.0

[BruiseCruise]

62 on MC after 35 reviews

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

So Ragnarok + inflation - closed markets WW. Blah. Oh well, I already know this’ll be my kind of film but it’s unfortunate that the expansion phase of the MCU is over.

I think it's a bit early to say that. NWH and DS2 expanded humongously over prior entries, quantumania will as well. If Gotg3 and Marvels struggle that will still be about an even split of expansionary and flat which is averaging expansionary.

 

Certainly the expansion relies on a combination of quality and overarching story/teamups/crossovers though. 

[snarkmachine]

Marvel fatigue, at least among the cultural tastemakers, is real.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

One thing is for sure, this doesn’t sound like a billion dollar film 

With 25% missing market (China, Russia and Middle East) billion dollar today isn't exactly what it was in 2019.

 

So if does, $800M, that's a billion dollar real value.

[MrPink]

31 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It's actually another person who don't miss, I'm just a conduit

 

Someone has to make the judgment call of whether the info is worth sharing. Don't sell yourself short. 

[Lucas]

71% with a 6.8/10 average after 73 reviews.

 

EDIT: Eternals was at 66% at this point.

Edited July 5, 2022 by Lucas

[BruiseCruise]

NWH got sterling reviews like just 7 months ago

[Cooper Legion]

In infinity saga, movies with these reviews mostly got As. In that case this will be a righting of the ship.

 

If it gets A-, bit of a wuity issue emerging.

 

B+, mcu is in Crisis and must hope for coogler Reed Gunn to save us.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

62 on MC after 35 reviews

Higher than Hulk (61), Dr Strange 2 (60), Thor/IM2 (57), Dark World (54),   and Eternals (52). 
 

Same as IM3
 

Lower than Cap Marvel and Ant-Man 1 (64).

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

Wait for audience score, if it gets B+ score then it's MoM 2.0

I'm waiting. My comment is contained to critical reception. 

[keysersoze123]

14 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

This looks about right. Typical MCU multiplier (like 2.65)

At this point MCU is frontloaded big time as they have a huge fan base. But this summer is empty. Only movies of any relevance Nope(I have a feeling this is gonna under perform) and DC animated movie which could go anywhere. I wish they released MI7 late july. Imagine Cruise having another movie this summer after TGM getting good reviews like the 2 Cruise/Mcquarrie MI movies. It would have had a big OW for sure. Now BO seems deadzone until fall. 

[CoolioD1]

oscar winner to disappointing mcu movie pipeline is real.

[infamous5445]

If this is Ragnarok on steroids shouldn't the people who liked that like this too lol?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

13 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I think it's a bit early to say that. NWH and DS2 expanded humongously over prior entries, quantumania will as well. If Gotg3 and Marvels struggle that will still be about an even split of expansionary and flat which is averaging expansionary.

 

Certainly the expansion relies on a combination of quality and overarching story/teamups/crossovers though. 

But those examples expanded the way they did because of unusual circumstance. If NWH was just a straight laced FFH sequel set in July 2022, does it even do half of NWH?
 

Same for DS2 if it’s not connected (marketed) to NWH and the cameo mill didn’t go haywire. Does it even do $750M?

 

I think L&T as a non-hype driven, marketed sequel to the Thor story is the best indication so far as to where the “real” MCU is at in terms of expansion. Obviously we know the total addressable MCU market is at the Endgame level, but that’s not the expected/average MCU market.  

I agree Quantumania will improve over AM2 in an expansionary way but it also has much more room to do so. My current expectation is around a 20% increase in tickets sold (about a 40% increase in DOM BO). That still puts it on the lower end of the MCU franchises, though. 
 

I don’t expect GOTG3 to expand much, if any. To match GOTG2 it would need 175/460 at current prices. Maybe 180/475 by May 23’. I see no reason to expect differently from that.

Edited July 5, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, infamous5445 said:

If this is Ragnarok on steroids shouldn't the people who liked that like this too lol?

Vol 2 was Guardians on steroids and a lot of people didn’t like as much..thought it was not as fresh, tried too hard, lost some magic