Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania | February 17, 2023 | Competing with Eternals on RT, Competing with BvS on box office legs

[Eric S'ennui]

Don't know how accurate the source is, but I guess this makes sense to have something Christmassy tomorrow

[Saul Goodman]

Great timing!

[thajdikt]

Did this look ever come?

 

First Marvel movie in a long time where everyone is hopefully not having to high expectations. I´m thinking 75M OW and 220M domestic. Worldwide to be around 560M total.

[Verrows]

14 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Did this look ever come?

 

First Marvel movie in a long time where everyone is hopefully not having to high expectations. I´m thinking 75M OW and 220M domestic. Worldwide to be around 560M total.

I'm hoping a $100M+ weekend is achievable based almost solely on the film being marketed as a critical event (not on the level of Avengers or Civil War or something like that, obviously). They've really got to emphasize Kang here.

 

A banger 2nd trailer would help too. Guessing we'll get that alongside a big game on NFL final weekend. Or something like that. Early January either way.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Verrows

[Macleod]

On 12/24/2022 at 6:22 PM, Eric in Boots said:

Don't know how accurate the source is, but I guess this makes sense to have something Christmassy tomorrow

 

Another "never-heard-of-it-until-now" fanboy blog (look at the focus of the rest of their posts) that seems to claim something like this and then doesn't pan out.

 

I will bring this question to every forum here now -- How about a ban on posting Tweets from unverified/un-established film/media journalists and trades?  It would lend this forum a bit more legitimacy. 

 

[XXR & Friends]

42 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Did this look ever come?

 

First Marvel movie in a long time where everyone is hopefully not having to high expectations. I´m thinking 75M OW and 220M domestic. Worldwide to be around 560M total.

 

28 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I'm hoping a $100M+ weekend is achievable based almost solely on the film being marketed as a critical event (not on the level of Avengers or Civil War or something like that, obviously). They've really got to emphasize Kang here.

 

A banger 2nd trailer would help too. Guessing we'll get that alongside a big game on NFL final weekend. Or something like that. Early January either way.

 

WW-C @ 560 sounds plausible but I think OW will be in the 100-115 range and DOM 260-290. 

[kayumanggi]

40 minutes ago, Macleod said:

 

Another "never-heard-of-it-until-now" fanboy blog (look at the focus of the rest of their posts) that seems to claim something like this and then doesn't pan out.

 

I will bring this question to every forum here now -- How about a ban on posting Tweets from unverified/un-established film/media journalists and trades?  It would lend this forum a bit more legitimacy. 

 

 

The problem is, sometimes even the trades post questionable claims. But I understand what you are trying to say, especially now that it's so easy to get that blue check mark on Twitter. People are acting like gods now. lol

[thajdikt]

I checked it out - this new look was just the trailer shortened down to a tv spot. So basically it was nothing

Edited December 26, 2022 by thajdikt

[filmlover]

On 12/24/2022 at 6:22 PM, Eric in Boots said:

Don't know how accurate the source is, but I guess this makes sense to have something Christmassy tomorrow

This must've been for that Evangeline Lilly/Kathryn Newton trip to Disneyland bit during the Disney Parks Christmas Day special that was basically them visiting and promoting Avengers Campus while also touting their new movie lol.

[thajdikt]

Is this opening over a 4-day weekend?

[Verrows]

9 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Is this opening over a 4-day weekend?

You bet. Presidents' Day weekend. People should remember to factor in a stronger than usual Sunday to their predicts because of that. Previous Presidents' Day hits like Black Panther, Deadpool and Fifty Shades of Grey all had that.

 

EDIT: Scratch that about Fifty Shades. That one didn't have a great Sunday haha, though I suppose it's on account on the inflated Saturday which was Valentine's Day. Point still stands though.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Verrows

[Verrows]

Early predicts because what the hell?

 

Opening weekend 

$110M 3-day/$128M 4-day

-Friday: $45M (15M previews)

-Saturday: $35M

-Sunday: $30M

-Monday: $18M

 

Domestic total

$275M

 

 

[thajdikt]

54 minutes ago, Verrows said:

You bet. Presidents' Day weekend. People should remember to factor in a stronger than usual Sunday to their predicts because of that. Previous Presidents' Day hits like Black Panther, Deadpool and Fifty Shades of Grey all had that.

 

EDIT: Scratch that about Fifty Shades. That one didn't have a great Sunday haha, though I suppose it's on account on the inflated Saturday which was Valentine's Day. Point still stands though.

Nice. 

[Verrows]

Also. A trailer prediction.

 

Final trailer and main poster drop on either New Year's Day Sunday or Monday the 2nd for NFL final weekend.

 

EDIT: Woops, I'm one week early on NFL final weekend. Make that Sunday the 8th or Monday the 9th (the 9th would be the exact same.number of days from release that we got the final trailer for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ). Could still see Marvel dropping it on the 1st for a New year's surprise though.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Verrows

[Eric S'ennui]

https://thequorum.com/4477-2/

 

Quote

Now we are less than two months away from the third film in the series, ANT-MAN AND THE WASP: QUANTUMANIA and the tracking numbers are, well, small.

 

Looking at the historicals, of the 30 MCU titles, the two ANT-MAN films sit near the bottom in terms of opening weekend. The first entry debuted to $57, while the second film in the series – ANT-MAN AND THE WASP – opened to $76M. That’s a $19M improvement from one to two. Could the third film be the first in the series to open above $100M? At the moment, it seems like a long shot.

 

Sadly, the Rudd-less campaign aligns with the soft tracking numbers. Currently, QUANTUMANIA (yellow) has an awareness of 36%. As you can see below, that’s well below the 51% for THOR LOVE AND THUNDER (brown) and 46% for BLACK ADAM (light yellow) at the same distance from release.

 

THOR opened to $144M, while ADAM debuted to $67M. Yes, we are mixing Marvel and DC properties. But it is surprising that QUANTUMANIA – the third film in the series – has lower awareness than ADAM given that ADAM was a new character for many filmgoers. An opening below $67M would be a noticeable step backward for the series.

 

It’s a similar story when we look at interest. With less than two months to go, QUANTUMANIA (black) has an interest score of 5.8. Again, that’s below both THOR (navy) and ADAM (light blue).

 

Despite the light tracking, a few things are working in the film’s favor. First, it opens on February 17th, the long President’s weekend. Second, it is the only new wide release that weekend, so it will have little in the way of competition. Third, no other Disney movies are opening between now and then. With AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER up and running, QUANTUMANIA should get the full attention of the mouse house marketing team from this point forward. Here’s hoping these numbers start to rise because this has always been a series worth rooting for.

 

[Factcheck]

20 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

https://thequorum.com/4477-2/

 

 

Why no Blue Beetle in your awareness list?

[YM!]

39 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

https://thequorum.com/4477-2/

 

 

Let me pimp out my club right here:

 

[keysersoze123]

Even the trailer numbers look meh and MCU 1st trailers have the highest views. Ant-man at peak of Avengers mania opened to 76m. I dont see this increasing a lot. I would say 85m OW but better legs than uber MCU openers if WOM is good. 85/220 kind of run. Overseas Ant-man have never broken out. If it releases in China could hit 600m. Otherwise around 300m OS as well. 

[Factcheck]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Even the trailer numbers look meh and MCU 1st trailers have the highest views. Ant-man at peak of Avengers mania opened to 76m. I dont see this increasing a lot. I would say 85m OW but better legs than uber MCU openers if WOM is good. 85/220 kind of run. Overseas Ant-man have never broken out. If it releases in China could hit 600m. Otherwise around 300m OS as well. 

It seems like online active fans are very excited for Ant-Man 3, whereas GA seems either unaware or less excited, and vice versa for The Marvels. I won't be surprised if both ended up grossing the same next year and DC wins big with The Flash (with Batman in it) and Aquaman (having a December release date).

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Breathe it in, folks. That's the smell of franchise fatigue. At this rate Kang Dynasty might actually end up missing the billion dollar mark. Marvel has just 2 years to turn things around. Can they?