Corona/Streaming: The End of Box Office As We Know It?

[redfirebird2008]

9 hours ago, Alli said:

So, i have to wonder. Are the studios ok with theaters going extinct? why are they doing anything in their power to extinguish theaters from existence? do they think streaming is the way to make the most money in the future?

 

blurays are dead, so it will only be streaming, which will be like tv

 

At one time the studios owned the movie theaters. That was broken up in the courts due to anti-trust issues. Point I'm getting at is that yes, the studios would like to get rid of the theater owners. They want total control of distribution, which then gives them ability to charge whatever they want to charge for the content. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Paramount_Pictures,_Inc.

[Barnack]

22 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Disney+ alone is projecting to have $9b-$12b of revenue per year within 5 years.  Compare that with the entire box office domestic take of $11.8b in 2018.

Considering it include tv product as well that could be a bit misleading, Disney TV revenues are about 24 billion a year right now (17 billion from cable, 7 from broadcasting), how much of those 9-12B would come from an horizontal shift from dimishing regular TV revenues for them ? And that 24B was before Fox TV got in...

 

Disney+ is an intl platform as well, global pay TV is more of an interesting comparable (and that an over 200 billion market)

Edited November 17, 2019 by Barnack

[Barnack]

9 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

The new streaming services have also made the very smart decision of weekly or longer format releasing of their shows instead of dumping them all at once like Netflix has done.  

 

I think the reason they do this is because that with a large number of platform, many customer would have started to take 1-2 month of a service, than shift to an other, etc... binge watching what interest them, like they did with HBO on tv.

 

you see them starting to push 1 even 2 year's membership instead of simple cancel anytime you want as well probably for that reason.

[Barnack]

On 11/16/2019 at 1:37 PM, Alli said:

Are the studios ok with theaters going extinct?

I doubt they are specially a Disney that can put billion's dollars movies in theater (endGame box office rental is how many users month of Disney+, that around 200 millions account month taken exclusively/mostly to watch it to make up....) ?

 

Has of now streaming - youtube - loosing time on Internet other ways, really did hurt regular live TV way more than theater, last year 41.1 billion was the biggest year ever and streaming was extremely popular in 2018.

Edited November 18, 2019 by Barnack

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

Theaters still have the leverage of overseas box office.  

India is facing same problem. In fact window here is just 8 Weeks, while for some films just 4 Weeks.

What's even worse is that OTT services aren't making that much of revenue as well, they are in fact letting a rampant increase in piracy or multiple people are using same account.

 

Further problem is with Jio, India's richest man's biggest Telecom company, which in 2016 revolutionised Internet in India with free/dirt cheap rates, forcing the competition to lose or die. They are going to launch Jio Fibre later next year, which per them will be releasing films simultaneously on release date, obviously move is boycotted by Multiplexes but it's India's unofficially most powerful man, so who knows what's gonna happen

 

Did a thread few days back

 

Edited November 17, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Rumpot]

45 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I doubt they are specially a Disney that can put billion's dollars movies in theater (endGame box office rental is how many users month of Disney+) ?

 

Has of now streaming - youtube - loosing time on Internet other ways, really did hurt regular live TV way more than theater, last year 41.1 billion was the biggest year ever and streaming was extremely popular in 2018.

Agreed.  Direct to streaming is still very much unproven as far as the economics eventually working out.  Don't let the stock market convince you differently.

 

Theater release of a successful movie can offer tremendous returns immediately AND advertise the eventual streaming release.  That said the box office studios are independent...and to think they would come together to save the box office...I just don't know.  But they absolutely should.

 

If theaters disappear then Disney better hope Star Wars and Marvel stay popular forever.  Which we know very well will not happen.  

(not to mention a similarly wonderful economic situation Disney risks disrupting further when it comes to the cable bundle)

[charlie Jatinder]

Besides I don't think there's anything to be sad on our side. If Cinemas prove to be less economically feasible to paying public, it is substituted by an cheaper alternative which happens to be more beneficial to studios, eliminating middleman that is theatres or in some cases Netflix/Prime.

 

Every thing dies, watches/camera/calculator die or almost die due to rise of smartphones and so on. Circus died for cinemas and TVs.

 

It's nature.

Edited November 17, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Rumpot]

6 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Besides I don't think there's anything to be sad on our side. If Cinemas prove to be less economically feasible to paying public, it is substituted by an cheaper alternative which happens to be more beneficial to studios, eliminating middleman that is theatres or in some cases Netflix/Prime.

 

Every thing dies, watches/camera/calculator die or almost die due to rise of smartphones and so on. Circus died for cinemas and TVs.

 

It's nature.

This is different in the sense it replaces a social experience with pure consumption.  This isn't just consolidation of hardware

[Jonwo]

Surely one  way for cinema to survive is more investment in making the experience a better night out for the customer. I do think the multiplex model while it was crucial for modernising the cinema experience back in the 70s and 80s has itself become dated. 

 

 

[edroger3]

It's possible to calculate the potential at the classic box office for a Netflix movie?

 

I think so:

 

According to variety.com Netflix said that a movie called "Tall Girl" (I saw it, not bad) was viewed by 41 million households (maybe accounts) in the first 28 days.

 

Assuming 2 people for each household/account 82M viewers x 9$ average ticket price WW = 738M$ in 28 days

Assuming 3 people for each household/account 123M viewers x 9$ average ticket price WW = 1107M$ in 28 days

 

 

Obviously we'll never know if those people would have see it in the cinema.

Certainly they would have spent much more $$. 

How much would it collect after 28 days of classic teathrical release? 100M people have to see it in cinemas?

 

Sorry if it sounds silly or incorrect.

 

For your consideration: Stranger Things 3 did the same numbers (40,7M) .... but in 4 days.

 

[cdsacken]

Again streaming wars are not going to ruin movie theaters. See 2.8B, 850+ domestic End Game for reference. Tiny budget Joker of 1 billion. Lion King mediocre film did 550m/1.65B WW. 

 

It will hurt mid range films. I think small budget films that execute well will work fine.

[Keanu]

I don't comment, on a lot of things, as you can see . However...   this topic did catch my attention.   I haven't read 📰 the whole thread  but I did read this page. 📄

9 hours ago, Rumpot said:

This is different in the sense it replaces a social experience with pure consumption. 

I think  this ⬆️  could be one the thing that saves movie theaters, or at the least, keeps them from going belly up. 🤷🏻‍♀️ Who wants to go on a date 🤝 in their house? 🏘️ We know, times {up}, they are a changing. So.... Who wants their kids to not interact, socially with others , outside of school? 🏫 (Kids are also home schooled 🏫 now soo.... )  Who doesn't want to leave their house? 🏡 I can go on but I won't. People work from home 🏠 and have groceries 🛍️ delivered 🚗 🚙🚲 to their home, 🏠 They buy whatever they need on the computer and it's delivered 🚗 🚲 🚚✈️ to their home? 🏠 There are so many reasons 📄 to not interact, with live people outside of your home 🏠 , that why not add ➕ another? As long as there is a Movie  🎥 theater, and I can get to it, I will go. I love 😻 watching 👀 movies 🎥 🎬, on a huge screen,  with amazing sound. 🔊  Add in ➕ sharing it with people   ( most of whom I don't know) and it becomes a social (outside 🌞🌛  in the real world 🌎) experience. There aren't that many left under 20 bucks 💵, if you're not 🚫, using one of the theatre subscriptions services.

That's this cat's 🐈 2¢'s. Meow!

Edited November 17, 2019 by Keanu

[EmpireCity]

23 hours ago, Jonwo said:

Surely one  way for cinema to survive is more investment in making the experience a better night out for the customer. I do think the multiplex model while it was crucial for modernising the cinema experience back in the 70s and 80s has itself become dated. 

 

 

 

Theaters have already largely done this.  Bigger screens, laser 4k projectors, Atmos sound, luxury recliners, D-Box seating, upgraded full menu including alcohol, VIP service, no talking or texting policy, etc...  None of it has truly mattered in the long run and all of it is done at an enormous cost.  

 

Short of having the stars of the movie show up at every screening and serve you, not sure how else the theaters can serve the customer.  

[EmpireCity]

16 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Again streaming wars are not going to ruin movie theaters. See 2.8B, 850+ domestic End Game for reference. Tiny budget Joker of 1 billion. Lion King mediocre film did 550m/1.65B WW. 

 

It will hurt mid range films. I think small budget films that execute well will work fine.

 

This is currently behind the scenes, but all movie theaters are struggling right now and it is only going to get worse in 2020.  There are huge layoffs already happening, planned expansions are being put on hold, many theater locations holding on by a string hoping that the busy Holiday season will make things better.  

 

The reality is the fall of 2019 has been a disaster and the outlook for 2020 is dire.  Current projections are a 10% drop in overall box office.  If you add in the pressure of Disney pulling the Fox catalog and all of the major streaming services hitting, then it could get even worse.  

 

If theaters contract and can't stay open because studios are giving them even less product than before and concentrating their talent and budgets on streaming, you aren't going to see those massive numbers as you point out.  

 

The next 18 months are going to be a crucial time.  No more Star Wars coming to theaters for multiple years, no more Avengers, the Avatar sequels are a shaky bet with no tech gimmick to push them.  

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, EmpireCity said:

 not sure how else the theaters can serve the customer.  

Isn't it just in some minority of locations ?

 

In my multiplex I go it is still a not even correctly masked, low light intensity, terrible projection, teenager type of staff that do not care.

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

 

This is currently behind the scenes, but all movie theaters are struggling right now and it is only going to get worse in 2020.  There are huge layoffs already happening, planned expansions are being put on hold, many theater locations holding on by a string hoping that the busy Holiday season will make things better.  

 

The reality is the fall of 2019 has been a disaster and the outlook for 2020 is dire.  Current projections are a 10% drop in overall box office.  If you add in the pressure of Disney pulling the Fox catalog and all of the major streaming services hitting, then it could get even worse.  

 

If theaters contract and can't stay open because studios are giving them even less product than before and concentrating their talent and budgets on streaming, you aren't going to see those massive numbers as you point out.  

 

The next 18 months are going to be a crucial time.  No more Star Wars coming to theaters for multiple years, no more Avengers, the Avatar sequels are a shaky bet with no tech gimmick to push them.  

AMC is doing awesome

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

AMC is doing awesome

 

Not sure if it is a running joke I am missing, but is it doing awesome ?

 

http://investor.amctheatres.com/Cache/1001258324.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001258324&iid=4171292

 

They are loosing less money this third quarter than last year third quarter and at least have a positive ebitda, but their 2019 fiscal year is currently running a net loss of 135.6 million, versus minus $60M at the same time last year.

 

2015: 104m profit

2016: 111m profit

2017: 487m loss

2018: 110m profit

 

The stock is down by 75% since it's 2016 December peak:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/

 

 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

Not sure if it is a running joke I am missing, but is it doing awesome ?

 

http://investor.amctheatres.com/Cache/1001258324.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001258324&iid=4171292

 

They are loosing less money this third quarter than last year third quarter and at least have a positive ebitda, but their 2019 fiscal year is currently running a net loss of 135.6 million, versus minus $60M at the same time last year.

 

2015: 104m profit

2016: 111m profit

2017: 487m loss

2018: 110m profit

 

The stock is down by 75% since it's 2016 December peak:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMC/

 

 

Well better since 2017 ouch. Curious to see 2019 totals. Alist I think will be positive. 

[Jonwo]

I think a lot of the big cinema chains will or already have consolidated, AMC owns many cinemas brand globally including Odeon and AMC themselves are owned by Wanda and Regal is owned by Cineworld, I wouldn't be surprised if Cinemark ends up being acquired or merged with another global cinema group in the near future. 

 

 

[TalismanRing]

https://www.thewrap.com/justice-department-to-end-1940s-antitrust-rules-governing-film-distribution/

 

Quote

 

Justice Department to End 1940s Antitrust Rules Governing Film Distribution

The Department of Justice is moving to end what’s commonly known in Hollywood as the Paramount Consent Decrees, antitrust rules from the 1940s that changed Old Hollywood and disrupted what was then known as the studio system.

 

The Department of Justice’s Makan Delrahim, who leads the department’s antitrust division, announced in a conference at the American Bar Association on Monday that it would plan to end the decrees, along with a two-year sunset period for the practices known as “block booking” and “circuit dealing.”

 

“With new streaming businesses and new business models, it is our hope that the termination of the Paramount decrees clears the way for consumer-friendly innovation,” Delrahim said.

 

Quote

Block booking is the practice of bundling multiple films into a single license for a theater to purchase. To get a big, blockbuster A-picture, theaters would also have to agree to exhibit smaller films from the same studio. Further, circuit dealing was the practice of entering into a single license that would cover all theaters within a specific region and give certain geographic areas exclusive rights over a film or films. Studios finally could no longer set minimum ticket prices for movie tickets.