NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

[Sunny Max]

5 hours ago, cdsacken said:

frozen 2 was a monster hold btw

Really .. ? 

[Bart Allen]

@Jedi Jat, hey there. Is there a reason Box Office Mojo hasn't updated Joker's international and domestic US total on its site since December 23rd? Or similar to Terminator: Dark Fate since December 26th?

[lorddemaxus]

4 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

@Jedi Jat, hey there. Is there a reason Box Office Mojo hasn't updated Joker's international and domestic US total on its site since December 23rd? Or similar to Terminator: Dark Fate since December 26th?

Its because its holidays and offices are closed. The studio won't release numbers for movies that are making really small numbers until next week. 

Edited December 31, 2019 by lorddemaxus

[charlie Jatinder]

Monday Actuals

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	15.30
Jumanji: The Next Level	8.65
Frozen 2	4.45
Little Women	4.30
Spies in Disguise	3.40
Knives Out	2.50
Uncut Gems	2.17
Cats	1.10
Bombshell	1.08
Richard Jewell	0.68

[JohnnyGossamer]

Good enough numbers across the board here. Gonna be depressing to watch all these fall off a cliff next Monday. Or, could that happen as soon as Thursday?

[a2k]

LW on track for 16 Mon-Thu + 11 FSS

Spoiler

Mon	4.25	-15.00%
Tue	4	-5.88%
Wed	5	25.00%
Thu	2.75	-45.00%	16
Fri	3.5	27.27%
Sat	4.75	35.71%
Sun	2.75	-42.11%	11

gives it 56-56.5 cume by Sun

adding 4x the FSS (not a lock), 100

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Good enough numbers across the board here. Gonna be depressing to watch all these fall off a cliff next Monday. Or, could that happen as soon as Thursday?

Is Tue Dec 31 discounted? Wed will be a good day being Jan 1 as is. If Tue is discounted then Thu will be worse than our expectations imo.

[Madhuvan]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Good enough numbers across the board here. Gonna be depressing to watch all these fall off a cliff next Monday. Or, could that happen as soon as Thursday?

Thursday will be 20-25% less from Monday. 

So about 12m for TROS. 

[Bart Allen]

21 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Its because its holidays and offices are closed. The studio won't release numbers for movies that are making really small numbers until next week. 

Aww thanks so much :3

[Madhuvan]

Frozen 2 Monday :4.45m

Tuesday :4m 

Wednesday : 5.2m

Thursday :3.1m

 

Friday : 3.93  

Saturday :4.72

Sunday :2.83  weekend :11.5m

 

Total after January 5 : 449.8m

11.5*4 =46m 

Total Domestic : 495m 

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Thursday will be 20-25% less from Monday. 

So about 12m for TROS. 

8-8.5 Thu imo, down 44-48% from Mon. (15.3 13 16.5 8.5)

[JohnnyGossamer]

13 minutes ago, a2k said:

8-8.5 Thu imo, down 44-48% from Mon. (15.3 13 16.5 8.5)

Were these the kind of drop experienced the last time NYD fell on a Wednesday?

[Madhuvan]

17 minutes ago, a2k said:

8-8.5 Thu imo, down 44-48% from Mon. (15.3 13 16.5 8.5)

I calculated drop from Monday rather than Tuesday. 

20-25% from Tuesday will be 13-2.6/3.25=10.4/9.75

 

I think you are underestimating. 

 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Were these the kind of drop experienced the last time NYD fell on a Wednesday?

yeah. thu chart https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2014/01/02

wed bumps were muted compared to the previous week's x-mas wed. seemed like half the previous wed bump would be a good target. last week didn't fully adhere to 2003's pattern though but it's still a good comp.

[George Parr]

6 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Were these the kind of drop experienced the last time NYD fell on a Wednesday?

The majority of movies dropped somewhere around 50% from Wednesday to Thursday. There was the occasional 40% drop, for Frozen for example, but the majority fell worse than that.

 

I see very little chance for TROS to have a 10m+ day unless Wednesday approaches 20m, which seems rather unlikely right now.

[Madhuvan]

@a2k Hobbit increased 41% from eve.

 

Thus, 9.5m+ Thursday is possible. 

 

Thursday 9.5m

Friday  12m

Saturday 15.6m

Sunday 9.2m

Weekend :36.8m

 

[George Parr]

3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

@a2k Hobbit increased 41% from eve.

 

Thus, 9.5m+ Thursday is possible. 

 

Thursday 9.5m

Friday  12m

Saturday 15.6m

Sunday 9.2m

Weekend :36.8m

 

The Hobbit also increased 77% on christmas day, while TROS only managed to increase about 59%. I don't see much of a reason to assume that this will be different this time around. The numbers are quite a bit larger, so the increases should be worse.

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

@a2k Hobbit increased 41% from eve.

 

Thus, 9.5m+ Thursday is possible. 

 

Thursday 9.5m

Friday  12m

Saturday 15.6m

Sunday 9.2m

Weekend :36.8m

 

It had increased 77% compared to TROS's 59% the previous week during X-Mas.

Spoiler

Dec 23, 2013	-	$7,823,089	-26%	+26%	3,928	$1,992	$135,373,784	11
Dec 24, 2013	-	$5,265,696	-33%	-16%	3,928	$1,341	$140,639,480	12
Dec 25, 2013	-	$9,306,295	+77%	+92%	3,928	$2,369	$149,945,775	13
Dec 26, 2013	-	$10,523,771	+13%	+109%	3,928	$2,679	$160,469,546	14
Dec 27, 2013	2	$10,100,000	-4%	+17%	3,928	$2,571	$170,600,000	15
Dec 30, 2013	-	$6,513,554		-17%	3,928	$1,658	$196,014,832	18
Dec 31, 2013	-	$5,527,246	-15%	+5%	3,928	$1,407	$201,542,078	19
Jan 1, 2014	2	$7,792,174	+41%	-16%	3,928	$1,984	$209,334,252	20
Jan 2, 2014	2	$4,050,170	-48%	-62%	3,928	$1,031	$213,384,422	21

 

It was a week earlier in release and TROS hasn't been keeping pase with Hobbit2.

 

TROS should match or beat the tue hold of Hobbit2 (-15%).

On Wed if Hobbit2 did +41% I don't think TROS can do better than low-30%.

Thu drop will be close to 50% then.

Edited December 31, 2019 by a2k

[Madhuvan]

OK 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Madhuvan
Leave it

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, Madhuvan said:

Frozen 2 Monday :4.45m

Tuesday :4m 

Wednesday : 5.2m

Thursday :3.1m

 

Friday : 3.93  

Saturday :4.72

Sunday :2.83  weekend :11.5m

 

Total after January 5 : 449.8m

11.5*4 =46m 

Total Domestic : 495m 

 

If it actually gets that close to $500 million, I can see a dedicated push by Disney to get it over.