Best Picture Predictions - 2020

[Jake Gittes]

40 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

Netflix should have Blonde premiere at Sundance and then drop it on february on streaming and have Ana de Armas fresh on everybody's minds for lead actress.

 

from what I heard the movie sounds indiesh and weird enough to feel like a sundance film.

 

do it you cowards 

An Andrew Dominik movie isn't winning an Oscar. He deserves better treatment than Sundance too anyway.

[Jake Gittes]

32 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i guess every other awards show will follow their lead very soon. let's not do this for the BOFFYs. we'll nominate sonic the hedgehog for best picture even if these cowards don't want to.

Sonic vs Beanpole the hottest best picture race in BOT history.

[filmlover]

42 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

i guess every other awards show will follow their lead very soon.

For sure. I'd bet the Golden Globes move to the Monday of the 4-day President's Day/Valentine's Day/Eternals opening weekend by tomorrow morning and SAG will move to either day before the announcement of the Oscar nominations (March 15) or the Sunday following them by late in the afternoon.

[RealLyre]

i've seen people complain that this shift in eligibility window is going to hurt 2021's oscars season and im like how???

 

since when do Jan/Feb movies even contend for the Oscars? they had none last year in bp and the year before it was just black panther, and before that was Get Out, but those are exceptions to the rule and those movies would've done well at the Oscars in any date anyway.

 

 

March to December is a fine window for 2021's oscars, although I bet it will get extended too if we don't have a vaccine by end of next year.

 

the only thing that's gonna hurt next year's oscars is that a lot of movies have paused production and will take a while to resume it, but extending the current season has nothing to do with that. 

 

 

 

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by RealLyre

[filmlover]

Just now, RealLyre said:

i've seen people complain that this shift in eligibility window is going to hurt 2021's oscars season and im like how???

 

since when do Jan/Feb movies even contend for the Oscars? they had none last year in bp and the year before it was just black panther, and before that was Get Out, but those are exceptions to the rule and those movies would've done well at the Oscars in any date anyway.

 

 

March to December is a fine window for 2021's oscars, although I bet it will get extended too if we don't have a vaccine by end of next year.

 

 

 

 

 

The Silence of the Lambs was a February release and that ended up being a Best Picture winner. But there used to be some early year releases even back when there just 5 nominees like Erin Brockovich, Fargo, Four Weddings & a Funeral, etc.

[RealLyre]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Silence of the Lambs was a February release and that ended up being a Best Picture winner. But there used to be some early year releases even back when there just 5 nominees like Erin Brockovich, Fargo, Four Weddings & a Funeral, etc.

and that remains the only horror movie to win best picture, I wonder what changed in their minds in 1991 to consider it for a win (was it because of hopkins?), then they decided to sleep on the next 30 years of horror movies.

 

 

[filmlover]

Just now, RealLyre said:

and that remains the only horror movie to win best picture, I wonder what changed in their minds in 1991 to consider it for a win (was it because of hopkins?), then they decided to sleep on the next 30 years of horror movies.

 

 

It was more of a thriller (an incredibly popular genre at the time thanks to movies like Fatal Attraction, another Best Picture nominee from a few years prior) and was just a movie that everybody loved (which is why it won so many awards back when movies winning 5 or more categories or sweeping were more common). Makes sense why it won.

[CoolioD1]

3 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

and that remains the only horror movie to win best picture, I wonder what changed in their minds in 1991 to consider it for a win (was it because of hopkins?), then they decided to sleep on the next 30 years of horror movies.

 

 

the actual reason is that a lot of the "oscar movies" that year were total duds. there's a reason Beauty and the beast was the first animated movie nominated that year too, wouldn't have happened most over years. the other best picture nominees were prince of tides a typical prestige movie that had mediocre reviews and JFK and Bugsy which were both from filmmakers who won very recently. the critics awards were very supportive of Lambs as one of the best reviewed movies of that year. just a right place right time sort of thing. i think it's one of the very few times the actual best movie of the year won best picture.

[Cmasterclay]

Silence of the Lambs is so fucking good it's unbelievable. It's up there with the first Godfather as my favorite winner ever. Top 20 movie for ole Clay.

[filmlover]

20 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Silence of the Lambs is so fucking good it's unbelievable. It's up there with the first Godfather as my favorite winner ever. Top 20 movie for ole Clay.

Still would've given the edge to Beauty and the Beast, but yeah, it's an all-timer. One of the more deserving Best Picture winners ever and will surely remain on that list.

[filmlover]

 

 

[RealLyre]

 

 

 

 

[titanic2187]

15 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

the actual reason is that a lot of the "oscar movies" that year were total duds. there's a reason Beauty and the beast was the first animated movie nominated that year too, wouldn't have happened most over years. the other best picture nominees were prince of tides a typical prestige movie that had mediocre reviews and JFK and Bugsy which were both from filmmakers who won very recently. the critics awards were very supportive of Lambs as one of the best reviewed movies of that year. just a right place right time sort of thing. i think it's one of the very few times the actual best movie of the year won best picture.

I can never forget how i was awestruck by Silence of the Lambs. In fact , i think it is better than Schindler's list, a film that always got picked as the best 90s oscar best picture  

Edited June 16, 2020 by titanic2187

[Jake Gittes]

 

Quote

 

But in choosing to extend the eligibility window, the Oscars missed out on the chance to do something really special this year. And that would have been to not do anything at all. Not move any dates. Keep the eligibility period as usual. They had already made the (correct) decision to allow films that didn’t get their scheduled seven-day-minimum run at a Los Angeles County theater to compete this year. And those movies did come out (mostly digitally, though some released in drive-in theaters around the country, too). Some of them are very good. Most are the kinds of movies that would have had a hard time standing out in the high-stakes cacophony of a traditional Oscars race — not because they don’t rate, but because they don’t come from capital-A auteurs and/or aren’t backed by big studio spending sprees. The Academy’s decision seems, in some ways, like a slap in the face to those films, as if the Oscars were saying to them that even though they’re technically eligible, they should sit back and wait for the big boys to come out and grab their trophies.

 

Which is a shame. Because right now, if I wanted to assemble ten films that have already opened this year that could compete for Best Picture, I’d have no trouble doing so: Da 5 Bloods, Never Rarely Sometimes Always, First Cow, Bacurau, Beanpole, The Wild Goose Lake, Sorry We Missed You, Emma, Shirley, and The Assistant. [...] Admittedly, you might not have seen or even heard of some of these films. (And if you have, you may not like all of them. That’s okay. I didn’t like Vice, and that didn’t seem to stop it from getting nominated.) But Oscars are supposed to be about quality, and nowadays they seem so rarely to be about quality. In fact, all too often now, awards season devolves into a weird, silly kind of tribal warfare in which the potential victory of certain films is transformed into existential threats. (Think Joker, think Jojo Rabbit, think La La Land.) This devolution doesn’t happen naturally. It happens because we all get sucked into the constantly hyperventilating, big-money, high-glamour vortex of awards season, and — as they put it in Hollywood — we raise the stakes, and decide that a victory for the movie we don’t like will be a victory for fascism.

 

An Oscars built around smaller releases that are nevertheless great movies might actually serve as a necessary reset for AMPAS, and return the awards back to what they should be about in the first place: honoring excellence.

 

https://www.vulture.com/amp/2020/06/oscars-2021-delay-why-the-academy-made-the-wrong-call.html

 

Yup.

[Barnack]

54 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

https://www.vulture.com/amp/2020/06/oscars-2021-delay-why-the-academy-made-the-wrong-call.html

 

Yup.

I was not able to get past 10 minutes of bird of prey so I could be talking out of my ass, but using it as a near miss for an best picture oscar nomination will not really be selling the point to many people.

 

The article just boosted my imdb watchlist with nice title even if a disagree with the main point.

 

I think the author have a mislead opinion about what the Oscar should be about, excellence, it is about a mix of excellence and prestige.

 

There is hundreds of price about excellence way more than the more about prestige like Canne and Oscar award out there, how popular are they ? How much do they do for the little excellent movie they push ?

 

Canne, Globes & The Oscar do a lot for movies because they are seen and prestigious, now that a debate but they are seen and prestigious because they are not just about artistic excellence and there is a balance to strike to achieve their many purpose: Promote the industry, motivate excellence from filmmaker, provide an marketplace that make some type of movies possible, that a line up like proposed would fail to achieve.

 

Jury of movie that honor excellence tend to be paid or at least do not have to pay to do it, there is a long list of for excellence awards show, keep the Oscar about prestige and big, imo, make people discover the Moonlight/Parasite, because they are winning awards that The King Speech just won.

 

And to keep the prestige side of it going, Canne/Oscar need to compromise star power, popularity, campaign, Dior-Channel into the equation and that what happen naturally anyway, you just need to not actively fight too much against it.

 

Or at least keep achieving to please mass audience as part of what excellence mean in annual cinematic achievement (for the Oscars, they use the word best achievement instead of best of the year often in their language for a reason).

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by Barnack

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

4 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

 

https://www.vulture.com/amp/2020/06/oscars-2021-delay-why-the-academy-made-the-wrong-call.html

 

Yup.

Every time I read someone saying "the Oscars aren't about quality nowadays", I wonder how much Oscar and Hollywood history they even know. These awards have ALWAYS been an exercise in flattering egos, making up for previous slights (well, not the first year, but Bette Davis received what was widely considered a make-good Oscar, way back in 1936), and concerned with rewarding the "right" kind of movie as Best Picture.

 

This Oscar year will last longer than 12 months, the first time that's happened since the 6th Oscars, which covered 17 months in 1932-1933. The Best Picture winner for that timeframe, Cavalcade, frequently makes "Worst Best Picture Ever" lists. Were all the other nominees even more terrible, making it the least bad of the bunch? Of course not. Many doing a rewatch now (or even 20 years ago) would rank Cavalcade very low among the ten nominees that year. But Cavalcade was a huge hit, and was the sort of historical saga that was catnip to 1930s Oscars voters.

 

The Oscar patterns that people decry as either recent developments or products of Harvey Weinstein supposedly introducing campaigning into awards season...the bones of these things started much longer ago than that. The "popular vs artistic" concept surrounding Best Picture happened at the very first Academy Awards, when they rewarded both ideas before saying, "Never mind!" the next year.

 

But I actually don't disagree with the premise that AMPAS could just reward whatever manages to be released by the end of the year. Maybe they are worried about the lag time (the reason why the Oscars stopped being held in late March/early April to begin with), or they don’t trust what their voters would pick in such a circumstance. Sticking with a calendar year would've been all good until Best Picture had gone to...IDK, The Call of the Wild or something.

Edited June 16, 2020 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

I wonder if the movies opening January and February that fall under the new rule will also compete for 2022 or it'll only be everything released starting March 1 (the backload of movies will be enough that it won't be missing much being reduced to 10 months for a year). That Denzel/Rami Malek/Jared Leto movie is currently set to come out at the end of January and might have a shot at being a contender now (although I'm guessing it isn't since they picked that date for it before the world fell apart).

[Safeno Rdz]

If "Soul" gets "Inside out" kind of reviews, and with all that's been hapenning lately, do you all think it could have a shot at big categories? Best screenplay or even Best film?

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

I wonder if the movies opening January and February that fall under the new rule will also compete for 2022 or it'll only be everything released starting March 1 (the backload of movies will be enough that it won't be missing much being reduced to 10 months for a year). That Denzel/Rami Malek/Jared Leto movie is currently set to come out at the end of January and might have a shot at being a contender now (although I'm guessing it isn't since they picked that date for it before the world fell apart).

The timeframe for next season would likely change. Even when the Oscars didn't cover a calendar year at first, the eligibility periods didn't overlap.

[SLAM!]

42 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said:

If "Soul" gets "Inside out" kind of reviews, and with all that's been hapenning lately, do you all think it could have a shot at big categories? Best screenplay or even Best film?

 

I think it'll have a shot. With Inside Out reviews, it'll absolutely have a shot. I think the Best Picture field is overdue for another animated selection. Frozen and Inside Out were likely in the top 20 in terms of films with the highest chance of getting nominated--though 2013 and 2015 were exceptionally competitive. In a year like this, I think it could definitely happen.

Edited June 16, 2020 by SLAM!