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lilmac

Post-Peak Disney?

Disney's trajectory over the next 5 years  

39 members have voted

  1. 1. Disney's trajectory over the next 5 years

    • Hasn't hit its peak yet
      4
    • Very successful but not at the heights of 2017-2019
      27
    • Slow and steady decline over the next 5 yrs
      5
    • Crash and burn
      2
    • Neither
      1


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After putting all their eggs in the 2019 basket, all expected a down year for Disney in 2020. It's no surprise that, despite it being still early, it's ringing true so far this year. Other studios came out the gate stronger than usual but still, there's a widely held sentiment that Disney will eventually be the #1 studio in 2020 in terms of boxoffice revenue. Are we sure Disney will win the year with Eternals, Soul, Artemis Fowl, Mulan, and Black Widow (and the untitled November animated release)? Can't speak for international but domestically, it's not guaranteed they'll beat Sony / Warner Brothers with that lineup.

 

Also, even if the COVID-19 outbreak plateaus in the next few weeks, their theme parks will feel the aftershocks for months, and see depressed attendance. Not to mention the cruise line.

 

Right now Disney+ is still more of a cost center due to the upfront costs. And besides Baby Yoda, there isn't much beyond their legacy product. ESPN is still dragging earnings.

 

Right now their businesses are very much exposed to anything that limits going outside and they're not the unassailable behemoth that I grew accustomed to thinking of them as. They also have new leadership after very successful runs by Iger and Eisner so there's uncertainty there.

 

Where do you see Disney going over the next 5 years?

Edited by lilmac
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I don't think it'll be the #1 studio of 2020, especially with their insistence on not moving Mulan. That means that Black Widow, Eternals and Soul will have to do a lot of heavy lifting, since they can probably take a write off on Fowl already. If Tenet, Dune, In The Heights and WW84 are big hits then maybe WB could take it, but BoP was a big under-performer and Scoob looks like it's going to do poorly too.

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If we are just talking theatrically I think last year was their peak in terms of market share and dominance over the competition. So if that was the case I’d say they’d be successful but not to the peak of 2017-19. 

 

As a whole though Disney will get through recent events and eventually parks will stabilise, theatrical and media networks will still make a nice sum of money even if off their peaks and Disney+ and streaming in general will likely overtake theatrical and eventually media networks. I mean Disney+ at 100m subscribers will be about $7B which was around their theatrical box office a few years ago, Hotstar with a cricket will allow them to expand their sporting/ESPN market around the globe eventually and Hulu will go overseas and also make them a bunch of money. Plus they will outside of probably Google and Facebook have one of the most desirable digital video ad products with Hulu, ESPN+ and Hotstar so that’s all going to be great for them. 

 

I also see them moving into another segment, probably video games, as they look to leveraged their IP buying EA or Square Enix could allow them to cross pollinate with Film and TV IPs being turned into games and Game IP being turned into movies and television. One of these deals might even rival some of their other big splurges (Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, FOX) eventually. 

 

So yeah I think there is still plenty of upside in my opinion. 

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Theatrically, we might not be even having theatrical market in coming years, so who knows but its safe to say that they peaked in 2019 theatrically. I don't see them topping that anytime soon.

 

However they still will remain #1 as there is no genuine competition in sight as well with them holding 35% of market even this year by the time it end.

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18 minutes ago, TMP said:

I don't think it'll be the #1 studio of 2020, especially with their insistence on not moving Mulan. That means that Black Widow, Eternals and Soul will have to do a lot of heavy lifting, since they can probably take a write off on Fowl already. If Tenet, Dune, In The Heights and WW84 are big hits then maybe WB could take it, but BoP was a big under-performer and Scoob looks like it's going to do poorly too.

That's essentially what it comes down to. Disney may have an off-year but the rest of the major studios need to have the slate to match them. 2021 Disney will be back to being dominant again. 

Edited by Darth Lehnsherr
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2 hours ago, Hatebox said:

Nah, they'll just buy Warner Brothers. 

 

ETA: to the people reacting earnestly to this: yes, it was a joke (albeit a pointed one).

 

 

harry potter with all the magical spells might as well be a cbm-ish reboot 😉 or we get a wdas animated version.

better than fb spin-off :ph34r:.

 

Edited by a2k
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24 minutes ago, a2k said:

harry potter with all the magical spells might as well be a cbm-ish reboot 😉 or we get a wdas animated version.

better than fb spin-off :ph34r:.

 

Get ready for a Mad Max film from the Russo Brothers and Jon Favreau on The Matrix

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Makes sense that 2019 is the peak from a pure $ perspective box office wise.... MCU will need to rebuild some and with no more major Animated to Live actions to plan for (on BATB and LK level) it makes a difference. Star Wars being quite for a couple years makes a difference as well. 

 

That being said, an overall decline - nope - the downish year that we all expected this year and then back to being "big"

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Phase 5 (Black Panther 2, GotG3, Avengers 5, X-men, FF)

Indiana Jones

Avatar 

The Little Mermaid

Possible Star Wars reboot

Pixar break outs/sequels

 

Disney still has plenty of 1-2 billion dollar megahits in the future. 2020 is just them catching their breath and pressing reset.

 

It will be tough to beat 2019 though.

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They'll have their ups and downs like every other studio. Though having already updated most of their biggest properties they'll likely now be turning to getting long-rumored sequels (ala National Treasure 3, Enchanted 2, Princess Diaries 3) finally off the ground as far as live-action titles are concerned since it'll be a while until the remakes of their 2010s classics are put in development to take full advantage of nostalgia.

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