BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 AACTA released their international noms. They're the Australian Oscars and members have Academy overlap. Decent barometer of what BAFTA will do. Oscar winners without AACTA noms: Best Picture: Green Book. Moonlight. Best Actor: None. Best Actress: None. Best Supporting Actor: Kaluuya (possibly unseen). Best Supporting Actress: Youn. Dern. King. Best Director: None. Best Screenplay: Original- Green Book. Her. Adapted- Moonlight. The Big Short. The Oscar winners are most likely here. Big miss for West Side Story assuming it was eligible and seen? They've suspiciously snubbed POC films but Will Smith made it. (As did Cruz and Hudson). More or less confirms the top 3 is Belfast vs Power of the Dog vs Licorice Pizza. Ironically they've snubbed the Supporting Actress winner consecutively so congrats to Debose or Ellis! Big snub for Leto. Kodi looks to be frontrunner here unless Kotsur builds enough steam. Best Film “Being The Ricardos” “Belfast” “Dune” “Licorice Pizza” “Nitram” “The Power of the Dog” Best Lead Actor Benedict Cumberbatch – “The Power of the Dog” Caleb Landry Jones – “Nitram” Andrew Garfield – “Tick, Tick … Boom!” Will Smith – “King Richard” Denzel Washington – “The Tragedy of Macbeth” Best Lead Actress Penélope Cruz – “Parallel Mothers” Lady Gaga – “House of Gucci” Jennifer Hudson – “Respect” Nicole Kidman – “Being the Ricardos” Kristen Stewart – “Spencer” Best Supporting Actress Caitríona Balfe – “Belfast” Cate Blanchett – “Don’t Look Up” Judi Dench – “Belfast” Kirsten Dunst – “The Power of the Dog” Sally Hawkins – “Spencer” Best Supporting Actor Bradley Cooper – “Licorice Pizza” Jamie Dornan – “Belfast” Ciarán Hinds – “Belfast” Al Pacino – “House Of Gucci” Kodi Smit-McPhee – “The Power of the Dog” Best Direction “Belfast” – Kenneth Branagh “Dune” – Denis Villeneuve “Licorice Pizza” – Paul Thomas Anderson “Nitram” – Justin Kurzel “The Power of the Dog” – Jane Campion Best Screenplay “Being the Ricardos” – Aaron Sorkin “Belfast” – Kenneth Branagh “Licorice Pizza” – Paul Thomas Anderson “Nitram” – Shaun Grant “The Power of the Dog” – Jane Campion 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Los Angeles Film Critic winners Film: Drive My Car (runner-up: Power of the Dog) Director: Jane Campion, Power of the Dog (runner-up: Hamaguchi, Drive My Car) Actor: Simon Rex, Red Rocket (runner-up: Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog) Actress: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (runner-up: Reinsve, The Worst Person in the World) Supporting Actor: (TIE) Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog/Vincent Lindon, Titane Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (runner-up: Ellis, King Richard) Screenplay: Drive My Car (runner-up: Licorice Pizza) Editing: Summer of Soul (runner-up: Licorice Pizza) Nonfiction: Summer of Soul (runner-up: Procession) Animation: Flee (runner-up: Belle) Production Design: Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar (runner-up: Nightmare Alley) Music: Parallel Mothers (runner-up: Power of the Dog/Spencer) Cinematography: Power of the Dog (runner-up: Dune) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 I wonder how much TPOTD will suffer if all the critic orgs realign themselves to push for Drive my Car instead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 5 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: I wonder how much TPOTD will suffer if all the critic orgs realign themselves to push for Drive my Car instead. Power of the Dog has dire audience scores which to me indicates an inability to win on the consensus balloting. IMDB- 7.0. 7.8% 10/10 votes. 6.9 average rating from aged 45+ voters. 6.9 average from non-Us voters Rotten Tomatoes- 61% audience. 3.4/5 average The fact that it's already lost NY and LA and missed NBR Top 10 tells me it isn't winning BP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Power of the Dog has dire audience scores which to me indicates an inability to win on the consensus balloting. IMDB- 7.0. 7.8% 10/10 votes. 6.9 average rating from aged 45+ voters. 6.9 average from non-Us voters Rotten Tomatoes- 61% audience. 3.4/5 average The fact that it's already lost NY and LA and missed NBR Top 10 tells me it isn't winning BP. Since when does the academy give a shit about public opinion? Dog Power missing out on BP would be a good thing though, watched it last week on Netflix and already forgot about it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ozymandias said: Since when does the academy give a shit about public opinion? Dog Power missing out on BP would be a good thing though, watched it last week on Netflix and already forgot about it. That isn't what I'm saying. Not at all. The Academy votes by ranking preference and consensus. It's why films like Power of the Dog never win because they're divisive outside of critical circles. Word of mouth and opinion is a strong indicator of how the industry will vote since industry is mostly basic in taste Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 POTD is divisive Belfast is old news WSS and King Richard bombed Licorice PIzza has #discourse That leaves one option: the box office hit loved by audiences and the industry 2 1 1 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandias Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 46 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: POTD is divisive Belfast is old news WSS and King Richard bombed Licorice PIzza has #discourse That leaves one option: the box office hit loved by audiences and the industry 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 HFPA probably aren't feeling too bad about getting cancelled if nobody is going to be showing up to the other awards shows either. Critics Choice Awards Plan to Proceed Despite Slew of Other Cancellations https://t.co/XKyBpvgyN2 — The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) December 21, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM! Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 (edited) OSCAR SHORTLISTS DOCUMENTARY FEATURE AscensionAtticaBillie Eilish: The World’s a Little BlurryFaya DayiThe First WaveFleeIn the Same BreathJuliaPresidentProcessionThe RescueSimple as WaterSummer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)The Velvet UndergroundWriting with Fire *** DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT ÁguilasAudibleA Broken HouseCamp Confidential: America’s Secret NazisCoded: The Hidden Love of J. C. LeyendeckerDay of RageThe FacilityLead Me HomeLynching Postcards: “Token of a Great Day”The Queen of BasketballSophie & the BaronTakeoverTerror ContagionThree Songs for BenazirWhen We Were Bullies *** INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Austria, Great FreedomBelgium, PlaygroundBhutan, Lunana: A Yak in the ClassroomDenmark, FleeFinland, Compartment No. 6Germany, I’m Your ManIceland, LambIran, A HeroItaly, The Hand of GodJapan, Drive My CarKosovo, HiveMexico, Prayers for the StolenNorway, The Worst Person in the WorldPanama, Plaza CatedralSpain, The Good Boss *** MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING Coming 2 AmericaCruellaCyranoDuneThe Eyes of Tammy FayeHouse of GucciNightmare AlleyNo Time to DieThe Suicide SquadWest Side Story *** MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)Being the RicardosCandymanDon’t Look UpDuneEncantoThe French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening SunThe Green KnightThe Harder They FallKing RichardThe Last DuelNo Time to DieParallel MothersThe Power of the DogSpencerThe Tragedy of Macbeth *** MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG) “So May We Start?” from Annette“Down To Joy” from Belfast“Right Where I Belong” from Brian Wilson: Long Promised Road“Automatic Woman” from Bruised“Dream Girl” from Cinderella“Beyond The Shore” from CODA“The Anonymous Ones” from Dear Evan Hansen“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days“Guns Go Bang” from The Harder They Fall“Be Alive” from King Richard“No Time To Die” from No Time to Die“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from Respect“Your Song Saved My Life” from Sing 2 *** ANIMATED SHORT FILM Affairs of the ArtAngakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s ApprenticeBad SeedsBestiaBoxballetFlowing HomeMum Is Pouring RainThe MusicianNamooOnly a ChildRobin RobinSouvenir SouvenirStep into the RiverUs AgainThe Windshield Wiper *** LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM Ala Kachuu – Take and RunCensor of DreamsThe CriminalsDistancesThe DressFrimasLes Grandes ClaquesThe Long GoodbyeOn My MindPlease HoldStenofonenTala’visionUnder the HeavensWhen the Sun SetsYou’re Dead Helen *** SOUND BelfastDuneLast Night in SohoThe Matrix ResurrectionsNo Time to DieThe Power of the DogA Quiet Place Part IISpider-Man: No Way Hometick, tick…Boom!West Side Story *** VISUAL EFFECTS Black WidowDuneEternalsFree GuyGhostbusters: AfterlifeGodzilla vs. KongThe Matrix ResurrectionsNo Time to DieShang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten RingsSpider-Man: No Way Home *** My Commentary Spoiler Spoiler Titane misses international and likely won't get in anywhere else. Nightmare Alley misses key technicals like Score and Visual Effects. Marvel movies overshadow other VFX-heavy films like Finch and The Green Knight. Many underwhelming snubs this time. Edited December 21, 2021 by SLAM! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 21, 2021 Share Posted December 21, 2021 (edited) Titane is the big snub, it looks like Predictions: SCORE: Don't Look Up Dune Parallel Mothers Power of the Dog Spencer VFX: Dune Free Guy Godzilla vs Kong The Matrix Shang-Chi ALT: No Time To Die SOUND: Dune No Time To Die Power of the Dog Tick Tick Boom West Side Story ALT: Belfast SONG: Don't Look Up Encanto Four Good Days King Richard No Time To Die MAKEUP: Cruella Dune Tammy Faye ? ? Nightmare Alley has too many overall snubs so not feeling it here. Maybe Gucci in 4th. DOCUMENTARY: Ascension The First Wave Flee In the Same Breathe The Rescue ALT: Procession. Writing With Fire. Summer of Soul will be the big snub FOREIGN: Drive My Car Flee The Hand of God A Hero The Worst Person in the World ALT: Compartment No 6. Edited December 21, 2021 by BestPicturePlutoNash 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 (edited) France made the bold choice but Happening would have been an easy lock for the shortlist and win, given the current political situation in America. Interesting that Lanb wasn't too wild for the Academy but Titane was too out there... Edited December 22, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Visual Effects is likely gonna match Critics Choice but switch Nightmare Alley with Spider-Man (they haven't nominated a Spidey movie in 17 years but this one's much too huge to ignore). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 3 hours ago, filmlover said: Visual Effects is likely gonna match Critics Choice but switch Nightmare Alley with Spider-Man (they haven't nominated a Spidey movie in 17 years but this one's much too huge to ignore). How many times have they nominated 2 MCU films in VFX? 2014: Winter Soldier. Guardians of Galaxy. ----- MCU noms: 2019: Endgame 2018: Infinity War 2017: Guardians 2 2016: Doctor Strange 2013: Iron Man 3 2012: The Avengers 2010: Iron Man 2 2008: Iron Man Even Black Panther missed out to just Infinity War. I think Shang-Chi can miss if Spider-Man is too big to ignore. Multiple superhero movies: 2008: Iron Man. Dark Knight. 2014: Winter Soldier. Guardians. X-Men 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilmac Posted December 22, 2021 Share Posted December 22, 2021 Spidey will get nominations for the sound categories, VFX, maybe editing. Mayyyyyybe soundtrack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 On 12/21/2021 at 12:00 AM, filmlover said: HFPA probably aren't feeling too bad about getting cancelled if nobody is going to be showing up to the other awards shows either. Oops. Critics Choice Awards Postponed Due to COVID Concerns - Variety Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted December 23, 2021 Share Posted December 23, 2021 (edited) We're back to the flat Top 10 without the "5 percent of number one votes" business. Is there any chance Spider-Man: No Way Home gets into Best Picture? Nominations are always less about merit than what the Academy will actually go for. Sure, it doesn't have the cultural landmark/social issue angle of Black Panther or the "grittiness" of Joker, but NWH "saved theaters"... Stuff like Airport and The Towering Inferno made Top Five lineups in a decade like the 1970s, when there were surely better things to nominate. It would be less unprecedented than people think. AMPAS isn't a monolith-for every voter with the Scorsese mentality, you probably have the Paul Thomas Anderson types who see the merits and acknowledge what's keeping movie theaters from going under, at the moment. Mostly, I just want to see the reactions and meltdowns if a No Way Home nomination happens, though I think the PGA lineup is realistically as far as it goes. No Time to Die did really well with the shortlists, which shows below-the-line support, and it could end up in Best Picture. Skyfall probably would have made a Top 10 lineup. Edited December 23, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 I think Spider-Man will make the PGA but miss out at Oscars for, like, The Lost Daughter. 4 Netflix films be damned There seems to be a consensus top 9: Belfast. Power of the Dog. Licorice Pizza. West Side Story. Dune. CODA. King Richard. Tick Tick Boom. Don't Look Up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 24, 2021 Share Posted December 24, 2021 22 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said: We're back to the flat Top 10 without the "5 percent of number one votes" business. Is there any chance Spider-Man: No Way Home gets into Best Picture? Nominations are always less about merit than what the Academy will actually go for. Sure, it doesn't have the cultural landmark/social issue angle of Black Panther or the "grittiness" of Joker, but NWH "saved theaters"... Stuff like Airport and The Towering Inferno made Top Five lineups in a decade like the 1970s, when there were surely better things to nominate. It would be less unprecedented than people think. AMPAS isn't a monolith-for every voter with the Scorsese mentality, you probably have the Paul Thomas Anderson types who see the merits and acknowledge what's keeping movie theaters from going under, at the moment. Mostly, I just want to see the reactions and meltdowns if a No Way Home nomination happens, though I think the PGA lineup is realistically as far as it goes. No Time to Die did really well with the shortlists, which shows below-the-line support, and it could end up in Best Picture. Skyfall probably would have made a Top 10 lineup. Oscars exclusive: #SpiderManNoWayHome team plans best picture push, Tom Holland open to hosting https://t.co/MRctqpUIUZ — The Hollywood Reporter (@THR) December 24, 2021 I want this mess to happen so much. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nghtvsn Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Quote Production Design: Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar (runner-up: Nightmare Alley) MMMKAY. lol. Film was str8 gobble. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
