Best Picture Predictions - 2021

[Cap]

On 12/24/2021 at 9:02 AM, filmlover said:

I want this mess to happen so much.

We just got out of the family showing, and frankly, Willem Dafoe has four academy award nominations and no wins. So eff it. Let’s go. Let’s rectify that, Kevin. Especially if we can do it spending Sony’s money.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Cap said:

We just got out of the family showing, and frankly, Willem Dafoe has four academy award nominations and no wins. So eff it. Let’s go. Let’s rectify that, Kevin. Especially if we can do it spending Sony’s money.

[TMP]

21 hours ago, filmlover said:

Speaking of Sean Baker films, surprised to see such little heat for Simon Rex in Red Rocket. Thought he was excellent.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

Speaking of Sean Baker films, surprised to see such little heat for Simon Rex in Red Rocket. Thought he was excellent.

Because he's Simon Rex lol.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

There's a month before voting starts, but right now, I would be surprised if Don't Look Up missed the Best Picture lineup. It's going over a lot better than I expected (even the unverified audience score on RT is ~20 points higher than the critics), and a lot of blue checks are dismissing the reviews as critics being butthurt about how the movie portrays the media. That's a convenient scapegoat, but it's painting the critics as operating under bad faith. So, whatever Discourse that Film Twitter tries to start will have even less of an effect than usual and might make voters rally around it even more. You'd think they would've learned after Green Book and Joker, but nope...

 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

There's a month before voting starts, but right now, I would be surprised if Don't Look Up missed the Best Picture lineup. It's going over a lot better than I expected (even the unverified audience score on RT is ~20 points higher than the critics), and a lot of blue checks are dismissing the reviews as critics being butthurt about how the movie portrays the media. That's a convenient scapegoat, but it's painting the critics as operating under bad faith. So, whatever Discourse that Film Twitter tries to start will have even less of an effect than usual and might make voters rally around it even more. You'd think they would've learned after Green Book and Joker, but nope...

 

Don't Look Up is actually a much worse movie than either Green Book or Joker lol.

 

I guess after Vice managed to max out its Oscar nom potential despite being written off as more or less busted bait by the time of nomination morning (critics were lukewarm while audiences pretty much shunned it even after the nominations), we probably shouldn't underestimate McKay's power in the industry.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Don't Look Up is actually a much worse movie than either Green Book or Joker lol.

 

I guess after Vice managed to max out its Oscar nom potential despite being written off as more or less busted bait by the time of nomination morning (critics were lukewarm while audiences pretty much shunned it even after the nominations), we probably shouldn't underestimate McKay's power in the industry.

I mean, that's the thing, even audiences didn't like Vice that much, so it was just inertia and industry goodwill that kept it in the race. Don't Look Up got a ton of people to watch, many of them liked it and you have industry types are calling it their movie of the year. It's ostensibly about an important issue they can feel passionate about voting for, much more than Cheney/Bush in the Trump era.

 

The DLU fans think the critics are being ridiculous and unfair and the voters will want show them. So if Film Twitter tries one of their takedowns ("Leo says he cares about the planet but flies private jets and has socialized with Jeff Bezos, that robber baron space explorer!" or "Adam McKay acts like he's against big media corporations but took Netflix’s money!"), it's not going to make the fans like it less and might push people on the fence to throw it some votes,  a la Green Book. And in the nomination stage, it's all about how many fans a person/thing has, not how many "haters" there are, and critics don't vote in the Academy.

 

But it hasn't even been out for a week and Oscar nomination voting is a ways off. It'll be interesting to see what Netflix prioritizes next month.

Edited December 29, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[CloneWars]

6 hours ago, filmlover said:

Don't Look Up is actually a much worse movie than either Green Book or Joker lol.

 

I guess after Vice managed to max out its Oscar nom potential despite being written off as more or less busted bait by the time of nomination morning (critics were lukewarm while audiences pretty much shunned it even after the nominations), we probably shouldn't underestimate McKay's power in the industry.

The Big Short was amazing. Vice yuck. I haven't seen Don't Look Up yet

[Webslinger]

Oh yeah, as much as I hated Don’t Look Up, I feel like it’s in a strong position for the nomination. It’s wildly divisive, but the “wildly” part means that the people who like it really like it (and as for those who don’t: well, you can’t vote against a movie…) and it just feels like the kind of movie and kind of cause that will play well within the industry.

[titanic2187]

First controversy surrounding LP

 

 https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/pop-culture-news/asian-activist-group-calls-awards-boycott-licorice-pizza-fake-asian-ac-rcna10304

Quote

An Asian American activist group is calling for an awards boycott of director Paul Thomas Anderson's "Licorice Pizza" over its use of a fake Asian accent.

"To shower it with nominations and awards would normalize more egregious mocking of Asians in this country," the Media Action Network for Asian Americans said.

 

[WrathOfHan]

Don't Look Up is safe after it exploded on Netflix. Should easily become their most watched film and might end up in Squid Game/Bridgerton territory. Picture, Screenplay, Editing, all happening. Probably Score. Maybe Song and a lead nomination. Don't think the directing branch will let McKay in this year unless he makes DGA.

Edited December 30, 2021 by WrathOfHan

[Ozymandias]

If Don't Look Up gets nominated its solely for celebrity worship and its themes.  It was a good idea, but as an executed piece of filmmaking, its straight up terrible.

[Cmasterclay]

Don't Look Up has a better chance of winning Best Picture than missing a nomination for it.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

10 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

First controversy surrounding LP

 

 https://www.nbcnews.com/pop-culture/pop-culture-news/asian-activist-group-calls-awards-boycott-licorice-pizza-fake-asian-ac-rcna10304

 

 

Film Twitter has been Discoursing all about that, and the age gap, since it premiered and started in limited release. You never know what controversies will become a big deal in an awards season and I think so many things are so overblown that there's a Chicken Little effect. Voters are burned out from "La La Land is fascist!" and "Joker will inspire mass shootings!" and "Promising Young Woman is copaganda!", so something worthy of objection ends up up skating. But I think a lot of voters will have a "depiction is not endorsement" attitude about casual racism, especially in a period piece. I'm surprised no one read the script and raised the alarm, though, because it's an awards play and a mock Asian accent in 2021, really? This was so easily avoided.

 

 

9 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Don't Look Up is safe after it exploded on Netflix. Should easily become their most watched film and might end up in Squid Game/Bridgerton territory. Picture, Screenplay, Editing, all happening. Probably Score. Maybe Song and a lead nomination. Don't think the directing branch will let McKay in this year unless he makes DGA.

Saw so many jokes featuring a particular Don't Look Up quote when the CDC announced they were reducing the recommended isolation period this week. McKay and Sirota are engaging with the criticism on Twitter, which might backfire but irritates a lot of critics/pundits, who tweet about it. The 28-day figure for the viewership will be staggering.

 

Every time Leo is nominated for Best Actor, he brings along a Supporting player on Oscar morning:

 

The Aviator - Alan Alda (Cate won but she is nobody's coattail)

Blood Diamond - Djimon Honsou

Wolf of Wall Street - Jonah Hill

The Revenant - Tom Hardy

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Brad Pitt

Don't Look Up - ?????

 

Except for Brad Pitt, these Supporting Actor nominations were hardly sure things ahead of time.

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Apparently MGM wanted to remove the Asian scene but PTA declined. The controversy and backlash will have absolutely no impact whatsoever. It happens every year. The Green Book writer had an Islamaphobic tweet to Trump and won 2 Oscars.  (Whether it should have an impact is a different matter)

 

Despite the garbage reviews and divisiveness, Don't Look Up seemed good for the nom after it made both NBR and AFI which Vice and Big Short failed to do. There's 10 slots, too. BP + Screenplay + maybe Score and/or Editing is good. McKay won't get into Director this time but DGA maybe. Leo is probably 50/50 but he already missed BFCA which deliberately predicts Oscars so...

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

Film Twitter has been Discoursing all about that, and the age gap, since it premiered and started in limited release. You never know what controversies will become a big deal in an awards season and I think so many things are so overblown that there's a Chicken Little effect. Voters are burned out from "La La Land is fascist!" and "Joker will inspire mass shootings!" and "Promising Young Woman is copaganda!", so something worthy of objection ends up up skating. But I think a lot of voters will have a "depiction is not endorsement" attitude about casual racism, especially in a period piece. I'm surprised no one read the script and raised the alarm, though, because it's an awards play and a mock Asian accent in 2021, really? This was so easily avoided.

 

 

Saw so many jokes featuring a particular Don't Look Up quote when the CDC announced they were reducing the recommended isolation period this week. McKay and Sirota are engaging with the criticism on Twitter, which might backfire but irritates a lot of critics/pundits, who tweet about it. The 28-day figure for the viewership will be staggering.

 

Every time Leo is nominated for Best Actor, he brings along a Supporting player on Oscar morning:

 

The Aviator - Alan Alda (Cate won but she is nobody's coattail)

Blood Diamond - Djimon Honsou

Wolf of Wall Street - Jonah Hill

The Revenant - Tom Hardy

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - Brad Pitt

Don't Look Up - ?????

 

Except for Brad Pitt, these Supporting Actor nominations were hardly sure things ahead of time.

 

Could maybe argue double lead noms for Leo and JLaw is the example this year. 5th spot in actress is wide open

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

BFCA shamelessly Oscar predicts and this year they nominated Chastain, Colman, Gaga, Haim, Kidman, Stewart. Last time they missed a Lead Actress nominee was 2013 with Amy Adams and American Hustle. She also missed SAG and made Oscar’s by virtue of winning Globe, making BAFTA and being in a big hit Academy movie. She was also a multi-previous nominee. It’ll probably be 5 of these 6. 
 

Leo, ironically missed Lead Actor there too. The last BFCA Lead Actor snubs to make Oscar were Jonathan Pryce in 2019 for Two Popes, Denzel in 2017 for Roman Israel and Viggo in 2016 for Captain Fantastic. I don’t think he’s making BAFTA so he needs SAG.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

10 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Apparently MGM wanted to remove the Asian scene but PTA declined. The controversy and backlash will have absolutely no impact whatsoever. It happens every year. The Green Book writer had an Islamaphobic tweet to Trump and won 2 Oscars.  (Whether it should have an impact is a different matter)

 

Despite the garbage reviews and divisiveness, Don't Look Up seemed good for the nom after it made both NBR and AFI which Vice and Big Short failed to do. There's 10 slots, too. BP + Screenplay + maybe Score and/or Editing is good. McKay won't get into Director this time but DGA maybe. Leo is probably 50/50 but he already missed BFCA which deliberately predicts Oscars so...

Oh, really? Hadn't heard that about MGM. That's honestly not a great look for PTA. How much it will matter to voters is anyone's guess. Next to the "important message" of Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza might seem slight as an Original Screenplay.

 

BFCA nominations/wins are a snapshot of where the race is at that time, and Oscar can do its own thing. After the reviews dropped, DLU seemed like a much weaker contender than it's shaping up to be now.

 

 

 

8 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Could maybe argue double lead noms for Leo and JLaw is the example this year. 5th spot in actress is wide open

Don't Look Up does have potential nominees in all four acting categories... I doubt it will happen, but if JLaw got in and Gaga missed it would be the most hilarious thing ever, especially since Lawrence's press tour has been limited for obvious reasons and the extent of her "method acting" involved smoking a bowl (filming was last year, before she was pregnant).

 

I do think that someone everyone expects to get in for Best Actress will miss.

Edited December 31, 2021 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

I do think that someone everyone expects to get in for Best Actress will miss.

Imagine if it was Stewart lmao.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Oh, really? Hadn't heard that about MGM. That's honestly not a great look for PTA. How much it will matter to voters is anyone's guess. Next to the "important message" of Don't Look Up, Licorice Pizza might seem slight as an Original Screenplay.

 

BFCA nominations/wins are a snapshot of where the race is at that time, and Oscar can do its own thing. After the reviews dropped, DLU seemed like a much weaker contender than it's shaping up to be now.

 

 

 

Don't Look Up does have potential nominees in all four acting categories... I doubt it will happen, but if JLaw got in and Gaga missed it would be the most hilarious thing ever, especially since Lawrence's press tour has been limited for obvious reasons and the extent of her "method acting" involved smoking a bowl (filming was last year, before she was pregnant).

 

I do think that someone everyone expects to get in for Best Actress will miss.

Meh. Adam McKay has already won a Screenplay award and the film is 55% Rotten Tomatoes, 7.3 IMDB and 50 on Metacritic and 3.2 on Letterboxd. The script itself isn't even top 11 so far. While Licorice Pizza is 2nd overall and has most Original wins and noms. Belfast has a better chance at winning Screenplay than Don't Look Up. The Father wasn't an important film and could have been slight yet still beat Nomadland for writing. Manchester By the Sea won. Writers just usually pick whatever appeals to them based on coolness, concept, structure, etc. PTA has never won and the film is a coming age of comedy with lots of dialogue and loose structure. Licorice Pizza winning wouldn't be too dissimilar to, like, Almost Famous. I don't think it's winning based on importance or concept. If it does somehow win, it's because it'll sweep the guilds and win BP but that seems unreasonable given it's a polarizing movies without the reviews.

 

Also BFCA nominated it in many other categories so that is also something I don't buy, that it was weak. Noms were released before the reviews. It made Picture, Ensemble, Screenplay, Score, Song. Those are the nominations it's probably going to get, given or taken acting or Editing. They seem on the money with this one. By then it made NBR and AFI. And same day received multiple Globe nominations (Comedy, Comedy Actor, Comedy Actress, Screenplay). Nothing has changed except the reviews have actually gotten worse.