2022 Box Office Predictions and Discussion

[jedijake]

3 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

LOLLOLOLOL-Good GOD I hope nobody's getting PAID for those prediction!!!

 

Are these predictions for OW WW? $300 million each for Avatar 2 and the 3 MCU films? They are pissing without even calling it rain!

[poweranimals]

5 hours ago, jedijake said:

LOLLOLOLOL-Good GOD I hope nobody's getting PAID for those prediction!!!

 

Are these predictions for OW WW? $300 million each for Avatar 2 and the 3 MCU films? They are pissing without even calling it rain!

Yeah, they don't even seem to be trying with these.

[dudalb]

I think, it we look at overall picture instead of being obssesed with how individual films do, that this 8% inflation is going to hurt box office. People will have to cut back, and the entertainment budget will be the first thing they cut.

I think people will become more selective and save their money for the films they really want to see, and some they might have sort of liked to have seen they will pass by.

[jedijake]

3 hours ago, dudalb said:

I think, it we look at overall picture instead of being obssesed with how individual films do, that this 8% inflation is going to hurt box office. People will have to cut back, and the entertainment budget will be the first thing they cut.

I think people will become more selective and save their money for the films they really want to see, and some they might have sort of liked to have seen they will pass by.

Not sure when these were made, but if they are going with $450 million for JWD (a realistic conservative number), then there's no excuse to put the 3 MCU movies and Avatar 2 all at $300 million. That's not taking anything into consideration. That's just being plain ignorant.

 

If they had the MCU films at $400 million each and Avatar2 at $500 million I might at least take it somewhat seriously. Still WAY too conservative at least for a few of them.

[YM!]

For summer, here’s my top ten guesses

1. Jurassic World Dominion - $195m/$575m

2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $200m/$475m

3. Thor: Love and Thunder - $175m/$475m

4. Lightyear - $90m/$285m

5. Minions: The Rise of Gru - $70m/$235m

6. Nope - $55m/$230m

7. Top Gun Maverick - $75m/$200m

8. DC League of Super Pets - $45m/$140m

9. Bullet Train - $50m/$140m

10. Elvis - $35m/$120m

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

For summer, here’s my top ten guesses

1. Jurassic World Dominion - $195m/$575m

2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $200m/$475m

3. Thor: Love and Thunder - $175m/$475m

4. Lightyear - $90m/$285m

5. Minions: The Rise of Gru - $70m/$235m

6. Nope - $55m/$230m

7. Top Gun Maverick - $75m/$200m

8. DC League of Super Pets - $45m/$140m

9. Bullet Train - $50m/$140m

10. Elvis - $35m/$120m

 

Fun Fact: No 200M Opener has till this day failed to reach 600M DOM. So if DS opens at 200, i have a very hard time seeing it fail to gross atleast 500M+. Would need afwul WOM for that i guess.

 

Also, Jurassic World is too low.

[YM!]

Just now, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Fun Fact: No 200M Opener has till this day failed to reach 600M DOM. So if DS opens at 200, i have a very hard time seeing it fail to gross atleast 500M+. Would need afwul WOM for that i guess.

 

Also, Jurassic World is too low.

Most had holidays, I suspect Multiverse will be more frontloaded than usual ala Civil War or Iron Man 3

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

230 for Nope feels like a reach. Higher than both Us and Get Out? I know they're being compared, but Signs did 227m.

 

And only (live action) original films over 200m since Avatar:

2013: Gravity- 274m

2012: Ted- 218m

2010: Inception- 292m

 

Borderline:

2018: Bohemian Rhapsody- 216m (biopic about Queen, so not original)

2015: The Martian- 228m (based on book, so not original)

2014: American Sniper- 350m (based on person/book, so not original)

2013: WWZ- 202m (based on book so not original)

 

Quiet Place "only" hit 188m. Dunkirk tapped out at 190. Interstellar at 188m. 

Edited April 19, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

230 for Nope feels like a reach. Higher than both Us and Get Out? I know they're being compared, but Signs did 227m.

 

And only (live action) original films over 200m since Avatar:

2013: Gravity- 274m

2012: Ted- 218m

2010: Inception- 292m

 

Borderline:

2018: Bohemian Rhapsody- 216m (biopic about Queen, so not original)

2015: The Martian- 228m (based on book, so not original)

2014: American Sniper- 350m (based on person/book, so not original)

2013: WWZ- 202m (based on book so not original)

 

Quiet Place "only" hit 188m. Dunkirk tapped out at 190. Interstellar at 188m. 

It’s a gut feeling moreso than straight prediction. If the GA loves this one like love loves it, I think legs will be surprisingly strong especially with a weak July.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

22 minutes ago, YourMother said:

For summer, here’s my top ten guesses

1. Jurassic World Dominion - $195m/$575m

2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - $200m/$475m

3. Thor: Love and Thunder - $175m/$475m

4. Lightyear - $90m/$285m

5. Minions: The Rise of Gru - $70m/$235m

6. Nope - $55m/$230m

7. Top Gun Maverick - $75m/$200m

8. DC League of Super Pets - $45m/$140m

9. Bullet Train - $50m/$140m

10. Elvis - $35m/$120m

Similar to mine. I’m more bullish on Lightyear and less on Nope, but I mostly agree on the rest.

[Cooper Legion]

The 200M opener 600M total thing is basically at the level of a coincidence — it used to be the case that a 200M opening meant truly striking the zeitgeist, which also led to great legs. But nowadays 200M is a lot easier — plenty of movies have a modern equivalent OW over 200M but worse than 2.5x legs.   
 

If nope can do like 60% of Signs admits that could be good for 230M, not that I think that will actually happen.

Edited April 19, 2022 by Thanos Legion

[DAJK]

Nope I see having a similar run to Us imo. Maybe smaller opening/better legs, but a total around the same (175). 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Wild, updated last min predix

 

Dr. Strange- 200m OW. 510m DOM

Top Gun- 60m 3day/210m DOM 

Jurassic World- 175m OW/490m (higher?)

Lightyear- 100m OW/350m DOM (lower?)

Elvis- 25m OW/92m DOM (but there's room for improvement, just being conservative for now)

The Black Phone- 15m OW/40m DOM

Minions- 60m OW/215m DOM

Thor- 165m OW/430m DOM (was thinking 180 OW, but I'll be safe with 165)

Nope- 50m OW/155m DOM

Bullet Train- 35m OW/125m DOM (again, another with high potential)

Superpets- 22m OW/75m DOM (no idea)

 

Others final dom predix:

Downton Abbey- 60m

Where The Crawdads Sing- 50m 

Bodies Bodies Bodies- 45m

 

Edited April 20, 2022 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Nope- 150m OW/155m DOM

 

Worst legs ever. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

Worst legs ever. 

Peele in his M. Night era 

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

Worst legs ever. 

Substantially better than Long Day’s Journey into Night

[Eevin]

summer predix–

1. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness - 200/480
2. Jurassic World: Dominion - 160/425
3. Thor: Love and Thunder - 150/400
4. Lightyear - 100/310
5. Minions: The Rise of Gru - 75/220
6. Nope - 50/160
7. Top Gun: Maverick - 60/150
8. DC League of Super-Pets - 40/140
9. Bullet Train - 40/120
10. Elvis - 30/110

 

whoops not trying to copy you @YourMother lol. i'm not as bullish on JW but 400+ seems likely no matter what

 

[Juby]

My updated counter-predictions for the-numbers list (after Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse delay)

 

Avatar 2 $500m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st)

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness $450m (+40m)

Thor: Love and Thunder $410m

The Batman $375m (-15m)

Jurassic World: Dominion $340m

Lightyear $320m

Top Gun: Maverick $210m

Minions: The Rise of Gru $210m

 

I don't see any other +200m films in 2022. Sonic 2 won't do it, Black Adam and the second Shazam! have very small chances, and Wakanda won't be released in 2022 Imo.

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Juby

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 hours ago, Juby said:

My updated counter-predictions for the-numbers list (after Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse delay)

 

Avatar 2 $500m (Dec 16th - Jan 1st)

 

 

 

Where do you have it ending up? 1 was at 283 by january 1

Edited April 21, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Cooper Legion]

On 3/17/2022 at 1:10 AM, Thanos Legion said:

Some quick hits in release order:

Morbius 150 (lol)

Sonic 200 (nice)

Dumbledore 100 (nice)

DS2 480

JW3 620

Lightyear 300

Thor 520

Spiderverse 300

Black Adam 180

BP2 666M because luciferase

Shazam2 180

Avatar 2 450