Halloween Weekend Thread | D:$15.53m HK: $8.5m NTTD: $7.82m

[lorddemaxus]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

I never really understood or witnessed the hype for Dune.  I know the forums here hyped it up quite a bit but it just never seemed to be that event film that it what's perhaps thought to be. I know Denis Villeneuve is a great director and he's had a couple of nice size hits with Blade Runner and Arrival, but I don't think his name alone is something it gets people into the theatre. I thought the 40 million opening was actually really good. I hate using this phrase because it irks me when others do as well LOL but it was a remake or sequel or whatever it is that nobody really asked for. If it makes it to 100 million domestically that would be quite the accomplishment. I don't think it'll get there, but we still got a few weeks left. Yes I'm sure the HBO release wasn't exactly great for it but as @filmnerdjamie pointed out those numbers weren't even that good either. 

This is just weird reasoning. Just because you didn't see hype for it doesn't mean it didn't have hype or that no one asked for this movie. This would've probably opened to more than Bond without HBO Max and if that film can be considered "hyped", so can this. Cant believe we're having this conversation when the movie exceeded most expectations and clearly Legendary and WB feel good enough to fast track a sequel and set a release date (do any of the other sequels for big pandemic releases even have release dates yet).

[CoolioD1]

28 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Covid has permanently destroyed the idea of going to a theater for a lot of people, I think a lot of people are in denial about this.  I'm not 100% against going to a theater anymore, but I'm sure as hell not gonna go see a big movie on OW anymore, not in this dangerous shithole failed state.  The vaxx isn't 100% and I know people who've been mangled with horrific Long Covid symptoms for well over a year now with no end in sight for them.

yeah i used to go near every week, sometimes twice a week but this year I've only been like three times total and always on like an early monday show that virtually empty. in normal times i'd probably have seen last night in soho today but right now nah that can wait for me to see it at home. i'll probably never go back to the old habit of going all the time.

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

This is just weird reasoning. Just because you didn't see hype for it doesn't mean it didn't have hype or that no one asked for this movie. This would've probably opened to more than Bond without HBO Max and if that film can be considered "hyped", so can this. Cant believe we're having this conversation when the movie exceeded most expectations and clearly Legendary and WB feel good enough to fast track a sequel and set a release date (do any of the other sequels for big pandemic releases even have release dates yet).

 

It's not weird reasoning.  I didn't feel any real interest in it.  Not from my friends or their kids.  I don't see how this would have opened to the same as Bond.  55 mill for Dune seems like a huge stretch.

[von Kenni]

6 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Batman Begins only did $370M.

Inflation adjusted over $525m but also production budget was considerably larger $210m ($150m then). WW/budget ratio 2.5 which would mean with Dune 2.5*165=412.5m but Batman had more US heavy box office with better margins and Dune probably had more blown marketing costs that brings them closer. The ballpark is there.

[lorddemaxus]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It's not weird reasoning.  I didn't feel any real interest in it.  Not from my friends or their kids.  I don't see how this would have opened to the same as Bond.  55 mill for Dune seems like a huge stretch.

Again, your experience hasn't been reflected in general, so it is weird reasoning. And it's not that unreasonable to think that the movie would've increased by $14 mil on its opening weekend when it's not available on a streaming service that at least 20 million people or so are subscribed to. 

[Legion Again]

“The pandemic” is a pretty weak excuse at this point tbh. The real reasons dune’s nums are seen as good vs BR2049 are max and the better OS.

[Eric Loves Rey]

50 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Covid has permanently destroyed the idea of going to a theater for a lot of people, I think a lot of people are in denial about this.

Nah. At this rate, I think we've all come to terms with this. For the past few weeks, we've all been bemoaning the death of midbudget films, adult-targeted films, and non-spectacle features and the state of theater maintenance and how everything non-Marvel's been in dire straits (Mickey's Law fam)

[von Kenni]

One concrete data point on the older demos hesitancy in domestic box office: for 1/3 of over 35yrs that saw NTTD on OW it was their first film in 2yrs. This will definitely affect negatively movies with older demos like NTTD (nearly 60% over 35yrs) compared to e.g. Venom 2 (less than 35% over 35yrs). Dune is between those, although scifi films like Gravity, Interstellar, and Martian have in pre-pandemic box office had closer to NTTD demos.

[RRA]

I'll admit the possibility of Soho opening lower than Malignant (which was day/date Max release) amuses me. 

 

Then again even though historically he's one of their darlings, Film Twitter this time seemed generally indifferent about this Edgar Wright movie. Usually his stuff is treated as an event online, The eh reviews, Film Twitter more interested apparently in Planet Arrakis or a new MCU movie's RT score all seem to have played a role. 

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

“The pandemic” is a pretty weak excuse at this point tbh. The real reasons dune’s nums are seen as good vs BR2049 are max and the better OS.

 

It's really not.  Too many people are saying they are avoiding theaters (or way cutting down their visits) for it not to be a factor, IMO.  Might not be the biggest factor, but it is one IMO.

[TwoMisfits]

So, to turn this to a look at future movies, my family saw an early screening of Clifford today...and my spouse's reaction (this is word for word) is too good to pass up...

 

So, he gave the film an F...and so I asked, well, what type of F, since you've given that grade to a few family movies, and he says..."So, Detective Pikachu was an F, too, but that was Citizen Kane compared to this movie"...

 

So, there you have it - the definitive dad response to Clifford.  Of course, when I told my kids that Clifford was likely to equal or outgross Ron (b/c $20M total BO isn't that tough a number to reach), they reacted with "are you serious", so I guess even kids can question domestic film going tastes...

 

That said, Clifford is made for 7-12 year old boys, and both mine gave it A-s, and my teen girls and I gave it C-s, mostly due to some hilarious individual physical comedy scenes and some "this is so bad, it's not quite so bad" terrible, terrible movie making that was funny in its terribleness.

 

All in all, Paramount should be happy all those folks walked out on the screening 2 months ago, b/c I can't imagine what a full screening of adults without kids would have thought about this movie...

 

PS - That said, there was sporadic clapping at the end of my screening, and more than a few adult women saying "that was pretty good", so who knows?  This movie may be for the kids who thought Clifford was lame and grew out of his cartoon and now want to make a little fun of what they used to love...

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

It's really not.  Too many people are saying they are avoiding theaters (or way cutting down their visits) for it not to be a factor, IMO.  Might not be the biggest factor, but it is one IMO.

Eh. I’m not saying the % impact is zero or anything, but the way people talk you’d think it was still February or Aug/Sep. A lot of people and localities are (reasonably) over the pandemic at this point.

[von Kenni]

8 minutes ago, RRA said:

I'll admit the possibility of Soho opening lower than Malignant (which was day/date Max release) amuses me. 

 

Then again even though historically he's one of their darlings, Film Twitter this time seemed generally indifferent about this Edgar Wright movie. Usually his stuff is treated as an event online, The eh reviews, Film Twitter more interested apparently in Planet Arrakis or a new MCU movie's RT score all seem to have played a role. 

He's making a remake of the Running Man!? Why!? It's already perfect.

 

[WrathOfHan]

14 minutes ago, Eric Atreides said:

Nah. At this rate, I think we've all come to terms with this. For the past few weeks, we've all been bemoaning the death of midbudget films, adult-targeted films, and non-spectacle features and the state of theater maintenance and how everything non-Marvel's been in dire straits (Mickey's Law fam)

Gucci is going to be the tipping point with King Richard's awful 6-11M tracking. Hopefully it can manage a solid gross over Thanksgiving.

[filmnerdjamie]

5 minutes ago, Avatar Legion said:

Eh. I’m not saying the % impact is zero or anything, but the way people talk you’d think it was still February or Aug/Sep. A lot of people and localities are (reasonably) over the pandemic at this point.

 

Especially with several films cracking $100M domestic. Unheard of this time a year ago.

[TalismanRing]

35 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

Inflation adjusted over $525m but also production budget was considerably larger $210m ($150m then). WW/budget ratio 2.5 which would mean with Dune 2.5*165=412.5m but Batman had more US heavy box office with better margins and Dune probably had more blown marketing costs that brings them closer. The ballpark is there.

 

BB's box office wasn't what got it's sequel green lit - see Superman Returns.  It was the $200m+ in US video sales

 

 

Edited October 31, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Eric Loves Rey]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Gucci is going to be the tipping point with King Richard's awful 6-11M tracking. Hopefully it can manage a solid gross over Thanksgiving.

FWIW, that's the one movie my mom keeps insisting to see in theaters (she already told me she wants to see a movie at home for Christmas instead of our usual theater outing. Goes to show what we're talking about in people just not interested in da moovies anymore). But frankly, Gucci, if it lands, will probably just be the exception that proves the rule and won't really indicate anything super positive in the long run for movies like it.

[Legion Again]

Duel+Dispatch+Soho+Richard+Gucci under Halloween.

[Porthos]

Just now, Avatar Legion said:

Eh. I’m not saying the % impact is zero or anything, but the way people talk you’d think it was still February or Aug/Sep.

 

 

If one looks at the national picture over at CDC Data Tracker, we're still at well over 1,000 deaths per day nationally (seven day average) and the case rate is still around 70k new cases per day (seven day average).  That's equivalent to Late July (on the upswing) or Mid Feb (on the down swing) in both cases.

 

We're just not exiting the Delta Surge as fast as we entered it.  It's also an open question just how bad this winter is gonna be.  I personally don't think it will be as bad as last winter (judging mostly on how California handled this summer versus last summer), but I also don't think it's a fait complete either.

 

 

Just now, Avatar Legion said:

A lot of [] localities are (reasonably) over the pandemic at this point.

 

This I would agree with more or less at least to a degree, but that's still kinda my overall point.  Too much of the country isn't over the pandemic for it not to be a drag.  Even 10% less revenues isn't nothing.

 

I suppose I'll believe the pandemic is over once the US gets under 250 or so deaths per seven day average or my current local preview numbers start harmonizing with my pre-pandemic preview numbers. I don't need them to exactly match up as patterns do change over the years.  But I would like them to stop being around 15% off or so.  Just too many movies I've tracked are still out of whack with 2019 and before numbers for me to think that something isn't happening with the overall state of the DOM theater industry.  

 

In other words, I do agree mostly that in some locals, the pandemic is over when it comes to theaters.  Sacramento certainly is acting that way.  But it's the very fact that my preview numbers before and after the 'rona are pretty radically different that tells me that the industry as a whole nationwide hasn't recovered.

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah looking back at 2019 how I was going to cinemas nearly every week I can't imagine myself doing that now even if there was no pandemic. Maybe I've just gotten lazier but the pandemic certainly will have imbedded that mindset into a decent amount of people.