The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

On 2/9/2022 at 10:07 PM, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	3	340	815	475	86.89%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	388
Total Seats Sold Today	104

 

COMPS WILL APPEAR STARTING THURSDAY

 

===

 

The local TrueIMAX showed up after all (as I mentioned earlier).  Sold 84/388 tickets which isn't bad at all considering it was after the initial "Fan First" announcement.

 

And now?  The deluge.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	29316	32197	2881	8.95%

 

Total Showings Added Today	245
Total Seats Added Today	31382
Total Seats Sold Today	2406

 

Day 1 Unadjusted Comps 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	329.63		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		31.32m
NWH	21.70		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		10.85m

 

Day 1 Adjusted Comp 

(EXCEEDINGLY LOL-TASTIC — USE FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY)

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	251.97		1089	1089		0/99	16124/17213	6.33%		34.83m
Bats (BW adj)	---		2744	2744		0/197	23547/26291	10.44%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp have been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE: Bats (BW adj) "Sold Day 1" also includes the 475 tickets that were sold to Tuesday showings the previous two days.

 

Tuesday Sales:        617/815     [75.71% sold]

Wednesday Sales:   804/1301   [61.80% sold]

Thursday Sales:    1460/30081 [4.85% sold]

---

Regal: 794/10475 [7.58% sold]

Matinee: 95/4799 [1.98% | 3.30% of all tickets sold]

 

=====

 

Very very solid day locally.  None of the comps are very good, so I think I'll wait a spell (and until I get to T-x day comps) to really say, but pretty sure we're looking good for 20m+ in previews.  Could be wrong though as we haven't had a film in this range and in this genre with this length of pre-sales in quite a while (probs since 2018, really, since Captain Marvel had an insanely long pre-sale window).

 

The Thursday sales, while still PLF heavy were pretty decent as well.  Speaking of which, the PLF+DBOX penetration currently sits at 79.94% of all tickets sold [2303/2881].  Goes to show just how much those Tue/Wed showings are currently tipping the scales.

 

Anyway, enjoy those 30m+ comps while they last, coz they ain't gonna be around for very long.

 

NB:

 

If folks care, the T-21 comps would be:

 

BW: 20.34m and ET: 20.47m.  Perhaps a bit more realistic.   We'll see if they're too low in the fullness of time as Bats pre-sale run takes off for real.

Edited February 11, 2022 by Porthos

[Krissykins]

First verified audience scores:

 

Marry Me 88%

Death on the Nile 74%

Blacklight 55%

[Joyous Legion]

30 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

First verified audience scores:

 

Marry Me 88%

Death on the Nile 74%

Blacklight 55%

YOUCH

[snarkmachine]

Now why did I think Blacklight was a documentary about a whale 🤔

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, snarkmachine said:

Now why did I think Blacklight was a documentary about a whale 🤔

Because you got it confused with Blackfish, a documentary about a whale.

[Joyous Legion]

Blackfishlight, a documentary of Liam Neeson getting violent revenge on a whale, will be the first movie to 3 billies.

[charlie Jatinder]

The Batman Harkins T-21 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	334	82,421	844	1.02%	$9,431	$11.17
Cine 1	30	9,012	1,115	12.37%	$17,649	$15.83
Cine Capri	6	2,673	98	3.67%	$1,416	$14.45
IMAX	3	1,335	280	20.97%	$4,480	$16.00
Total	373	95,441	2,337	2.45%	$32,976	$14.11
EA Cine1	10	3,004	1,063	35.39%	$16,987	$15.98
EA Cine Capri	1	300	131	43.67%	$1,965	$15.00
EA IMAX	1	445	387	86.97%	$6,192	$16.00
Total	12	3,749	1,581	42.17%	$25,144	$15.90
Grand Total	385	99,190	3,918	3.95%	$58,120	$14.83

 

First off 385 shows. The fuck. Anyways, the early access shows are selling well as they should. THU previews are quite good for PLFs as well but regular screenings are not that hot.

 

As for comps, I am gonna use admits since ATP aren't perfect yet as I corrected some of them but some are of NWH rates. Not much diffs though.

 

3.83x of Eternals first day of sales - $36.4M

2.79x of Eternals T-21 days - $26.5M

0.13x of Spider-man: No Way Home first day of sales - $6.63M 

 

LOL. NWH numbers are joke man. Eternals T-21 days comp seems quite reasonable. FWIW roughly 1600 seats from early screenings are 3 days sales. Of course $26M is still inflated, Batman being higher level of film than Eternals, but Eternals had bigger start than what it eventually did i.e. $9.5M.  Next few days will give us better idea.

Edited February 11, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos first run off to a mediocre start.  This is at 19hr mark, compared to my first Spider-Man run at 15hr mark.

 

Batman

Tuesday: 440/446 (1 show)

Thursday: 666/3,034 (25 shows)

Friday: 499/4,652 (27 shows)

 

Spider-man

Thursday: 11,929/19,326

 

Tues + Thurs comes out to .093x of Spider-man, or 4.64m.  I'm not even going to entertain that as a possibility. 

 

Format Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-18	Batman (Tue)	PLF	1	0	440	446	98.65%	$17.05	$7,502.00
	Batman (Tue) Total		1	0	440	446	98.65%	$17.05	$7,502.00
T-20	Batman (Thu)	PLF	9	542	542	2,054	26.39%	$16.03	$8,688.07
		Standard	16	124	124	980	12.65%	$13.31	$1,650.40
	Batman (Thu) Total		25	666	666	3,034	21.95%	$15.52	$10,338.47
T-21	Batman (Fri)	PLF	16	456	456	3,722	12.25%	$16.01	$7,301.73
		Standard	11	43	43	930	4.62%	$14.24	$612.25
	Batman (Fri) Total		27	499	499	4,652	10.73%	$15.86	$7,913.98

 

Matinee Breakdown

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-18	Batman (Tue)	N	1	0	440	446	98.65%	$17.05	$7,502.00
	Batman (Tue) Total		1	0	440	446	98.65%	$17.05	$7,502.00
T-20	Batman (Thu)	N	20	627	627	2,474	25.34%	$15.76	$9,879.43
		Y	5	39	39	560	6.96%	$11.77	$459.04
	Batman (Thu) Total		25	666	666	3,034	21.95%	$15.52	$10,338.47
T-21	Batman (Fri)	N	15	464	464	3,003	15.45%	$16.17	$7,501.23
		Y	12	35	35	1,649	2.12%	$11.79	$412.75
	Batman (Fri) Total		27	499	499	4,652	10.73%	$15.86	$7,913.98

[MrPink]

8 hours ago, Eric Poirot said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	385	10285	3.74%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp

0.365x of F9 T-7 (2.59M)

0.928x of The Suicide Squad T-7 (3.8M)

0.371x of Venom 2 T-7 (4.3M)

0.537x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-7 (2.42M)

 

@MrPink maybe things aren't so hopeless after all.

Be wary of this comp. Sony sent out their free tickets for those who purchased the Uncharted remaster on PS5 yesterday so if you’re tracking any Regal theaters that may be why

[efialtes76]

Why all of you are comparing The Batman with NWH?

 

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Why all of you are comparing The Batman with NWH?

 

Because it was 2 months ago and the closest film to it in the last 2 years.

[Joyous Legion]

6 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Why all of you are comparing The Batman with NWH?

 

Because it’s the only other big ticket seller and 100+ opener of the pandemic era.

[Eric is Quiet]

7 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Why all of you are comparing The Batman with NWH?

 

Wynaut?

[efialtes76]

4 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

Because it was 2 months ago and the closest film to it in the last 2 years.

But NWH was a different beast.

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

But NWH was a different beast.

Sure, but options are limited.

[Eric is Quiet]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-domestic-market-approaches-500m-ytd-as-the-batman-uncharted-dog-hope-to-provide-late-winter-momentum/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/11/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
2/18/2022	Dog	$5,000,000 – $15,000,000	$20,000,000 – $65,000,000	3,100	MGM
2/18/2022	Uncharted	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$60,000,000 – $85,000,000	4,000	Sony Pictures / Columbia
2/25/2022	Cyrano (Wide Expansion)			n/a	United Artists Releasing
2/25/2022	Studio 666			n/a	Open Road Films
3/4/2022	The Batman	$135,000,000 – $185,000,000	$340,000,000 – $540,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

[filmlover]

Pre-COVID comparisons are largely useless at the moment. We're in a whole new era of box office tracking.

[Dragoncaine]

Just now, Eric Poirot said:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-domestic-market-approaches-500m-ytd-as-the-batman-uncharted-dog-hope-to-provide-late-winter-momentum/

 

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2022 Calendar
(as of 2/11/22)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
2/18/2022	Dog	$5,000,000 – $15,000,000	$20,000,000 – $65,000,000	3,100	MGM
2/18/2022	Uncharted	$25,000,000 – $35,000,000	$60,000,000 – $85,000,000	4,000	Sony Pictures / Columbia
2/25/2022	Cyrano (Wide Expansion)			n/a	United Artists Releasing
2/25/2022	Studio 666			n/a	Open Road Films
3/4/2022	The Batman	$135,000,000 – $185,000,000	$340,000,000 – $540,000,000		Warner Bros. Pictures

Good sign that Box Office Pro hasn't adjusted their long-range forecasting in the wake of presales, or does that just mean they haven't factored them in yet?

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

But NWH was a different beast.

Eternals and NWH are two comps most of us are using. 

 

Thing is Batman is too big for Eternals but too small for NWH. Things will start getting better as we move forward. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Why all of you are comparing The Batman with NWH?

 

Personally? It's the only other movie I tracked for Santikos so it's that or nothing.