The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[dudalb]

If people are waiting for things to back to normal for theaters, it ain't happening.

THey have suffered a premanent loss of customers who will not be coming back even when Covid is no longer a factor. A repeat of what happened in the early 1950's with the coming of TV. Covid just acclerated the move to streaming.

The studios will make out fine, but theater chains and distribution companies are goning to take a huge hit. I suspect you will , in a couple of years, see some theaters shut down and sold for the real estate value.

A few films like NWH and possbly The Batman and Avatar 2 will make huge amounts of money, but the overall theater take will go down.

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by dudalb

[BruiseCruise]

@EmpireCity

@charlie Jatinder

 

What do you guys think Uncharted 4 day OW will be? 

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	8	3	47	39	5,126
Seats Added	1,377	133	9,735	3,506	900,107
Seats Sold	7,458	6,150	6,173	19,131	65,150
2/14/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,223	104,062	914,858	11.37%

 

 

ATP

$17.28

 

Edited February 15, 2022 by ZackM

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/14/2022 at 4:34 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

496

3112

15.94%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

266

3405

7.81%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1626	261	29053	5.60%	14	188

 

AMCs sold	1311
Cinemarks sold	70
Regals sold	147
Harkins sold	98

 

Tuesday:

Total

1008

17

1428

Wednesday:

Total

397

39

917

Overall:

Grand Total

3031

317

31398

 

0.287x NWH Day 5 sales(14.33M)

2.68x Eternals T-17 sales(25.48M)

2.09x Black Widow T-17 sales(27.57M)

The Batman Denver Preview Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

519

3112

16.68%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

276

3405

8.11%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1675	49	29335	5.71%	14	189

 

AMCs sold	1350
Cinemarks sold	72
Regals sold	149
Harkins sold	104

 

Tuesday:

Total

1013

5

1428

Wednesday:

Total

425

28

917

Overall:

Grand Total

3113

82

31680

 

0.342x NWH T-16 (17.11M)

2.60x Eternals T-16 (24.70M)

2.08x Black Widow T-16 (27.39M)

 

Switched to the T-X NWH comp which is why it had an increase.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2265(+35)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(90 showings): 1516(+168)/26353 in 15 theaters

 

0.221x NWH's Day 5 sales

4.36x Eternals' T-17 sales

2.07x Black Widow T-17 sales

 

Friday(144 showings): 1152(+137)/44721 in 15 theaters

0.095x NWH's Day 5 sales

2.40x Eternals' T-18 sales

1.07x Black Widow T-18 sales

 

Saturday(151 showings): 565(+108)/46551 in 15 theaters

0.094x NWH's Day 5 sales

2.04x Eternals' T-19 sales

 

Sunday(101 showings): 107(+35)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.089x NWH's Day 5 sales

1.35x Eternals' T-20 sales

The Batman Megaplex

 

Tuesday(5 showings): 2280(+15)/2741 in 5 theaters

Thursday(90 showings): 1629(+113)/26353 in 15 theaters

 

0.258x NWH's T-16 (12.90M)

4.09x Eternals' T-16 (38.86M)

2.07x Black Widow T-16 (27.39M)

 

Friday(144 showings): 1272(+120/44721 in 15 theaters

0.129x NWH's T-17 (9.28M)

1.99x Eternals' T-17 (42.47M)

1.14x Black Widow T-17 (29.98M)

 

Saturday(151 showings): 595(+30)/46551 in 15 theaters

0.139x NWH's T-18 (10.27M)

1.85x Eternals' T-18 (44.62M)

 

Sunday(101 showings): 117(+10)/32941 in 15 theaters

0.141x NWH's T-19 (9.05M)

1.48x Eternals' T-19 (24.17M)

 

Don't take those NWH and Eternals comps at face value...

[Inceptionzq]

On 2/14/2022 at 4:45 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(222 showings): 7130(+630)/31377 ATP: $15.00

0.297x NWH's Day 5

2.04x Eternals T-17

 

Friday(332 showings): 6743(+679)/47626   ATP: $15.17

0.338x NWH's Day 5

2.34x Eternals T-18

 

Saturday(350 showings): 5677(+725)/50209   ATP: $14.73

0.309x NWH's Day 5

2.02x Eternals T-19

 

Sunday(337 showings): 2292(+421)/48084   ATP: $14.62

0.265x NWH's Day 5

1.49x Eternals T-20

The Batman Alamo Drafthouse

 

Thursday(222 showings): 7261(+131)/31377 ATP: $15.03

0.334x NWH's T-16 (16.71M)

1.85x Eternals T-16 (17.54M)

 

Friday(332 showings): 6964(+221)/47626   ATP: $15.19

0.411x NWH's T-17 (29.56M)

2.24x Eternals T-17 (47.80M)

 

Saturday(350 showings): 6048(+371)/50209   ATP: $14.73

0.429x NWH's T-18 (31.70M)

1.94x Eternals T-18 (46.79M)

 

Sunday(337 showings): 2462(+170)/48084   ATP: $14.63

0.431x NWH's T-19 (27.66M)

1.46x Eternals T-19 (23.84M)

[keysersoze123]

25 minutes ago, ZackM said:

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	8	3	47	39	5,126
Seats Added	1,377	133	9,735	3,506	900,107
Seats Sold	7,458	6,150	6,173	19,131	65,150
2/14/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,223	104,062	914,858	11.37%

 

 

ATP

$17.28

 

Thank you @ZackM. Can you look at Wednesday Early shows as well. Katniss looked at tuesday data already.  

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

@EmpireCity

@charlie Jatinder

 

What do you guys think Uncharted 4 day OW will be? 

 

No idea.  

[Tinalera]

3 hours ago, cax16 said:

Batman tickets went on sale last Thursday here. 
 

I did a count from about 24 theatres Sunday. We have a fan first event on Wednesday(March 3)and then the normal Thursday start, some places have tickets available up until March 10th already. 

I will double check that thank you! It would be nice if Bats is up and presales in Ontario.

 

Edit: Okay it IS up! Thank you for that, would have missed it otherwise. Will maybe do a track tomorrow for it.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Tinalera

[Eric S'ennui]

https://deadline.com/2022/02/box-office-uncharted-tom-holland-global-opening-1234934499/

 

Quote

Sony will release it’s first movie of 2022, and second Tom Holland title after Spider-Man: No Way Home over the 4-day Presidents Day weekend, Uncharted, in what is expected to be a $70M+ haul worldwide.
 

Broken down that’s another $40M overseas from 47 markets starting Wednesday with France and Korea, then traveling to Australia, Germany, Italy, Mexico, Brazil, Japan and Norway. The movie, directed by Ruben Fleischer, and based on the 15-year old, Amy Henning-created Sony PlayStation game, has already bagged $21.5M from last weekend’s offshore start in 15 markets including UK, Russia and Spain where it ranked No. 1. The pic had a particularly huge start in Ukraine despite the threat of Russian forces in the headlines.

 

Previews stateside begin at 4PM on Thursday at 3,526 locations. Booked at 4,200 locations, Sony is eyeing $30M over the 4-days, $27M over three. Industry projections speculate the film could go into the mid $30M range over Friday through Monday, possibly $40M. The studio will have all the PLFs and Imax and a two-week runway before Warner Bros comes in and sops up all the box office oxygen with The Batman on March 4. Many in town are buzzing that movie will open to north of $100M.

 

Uncharted is sparking interest from young guys and women under 25. The comp I keep hearing is Disney’s Jungle Cruise numbers-wise which debuted to $35M. Before Covid shut down theaters in 2020, Sonic the Hedgehog, set a highwater point for videogame adaptations at the box office, which are normally challenged, with a $58M 3-day, $70M 4-day. Critics haven’t warmed to Uncharted with a current Rotten Tomatoes of 46% Rotten. Sonic the Hedgehog was 63% fresh on RT.
 

United Artists Releasing has the Channing Tatum buddy comedy, Dog, opening in the U.S. at 3,677 theaters with an outlook of $12M over four days. The pic looks to hook women and Latino and Hispanic audiences. Previews start Thursday at 4PM.

 

[ZackM]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Thank you @ZackM. Can you look at Wednesday Early shows as well. Katniss looked at tuesday data already.  

 

The Batman Alpha Chain Investor Connect Screening Seat Report: T-15 days
2/15/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	205	205	21,772	39,745	54.78%
ATP
$19.58

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, Eric Drake said:

https://deadline.com/2022/02/box-office-uncharted-tom-holland-global-opening-1234934499/

 

 

It says something the 30 Million US is now considered decent for a 150 million dollar film, while in pre Covid days it would be considered a box office fail.

[BruiseCruise]

4 minutes ago, dudalb said:

It says something the 30 Million US is now considered decent for a 150 million dollar film, while in pre Covid days it would be considered a box office fail.

Nah that article is cope, at this point any movie that relies on mainly male 18-34 demo is basically back to pre-pandemic levels and should be judged accordingly

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

12m 4day seems ok/solid for Dog? That's more than what Marry Me did in 4 days. 15m budget. But that 8m-10ish seems to really be the ideal range for these dramas, etc. Death on Nile, West Side Story, Respect, Dear Evan Hansen

 

Below that are the legit flops and/or simultaneous streaming: Last Duel, King Richard, Stillwater, Cry Macho, Nightmare Alley, Last Night in Soho.

 

Only original films to open higher: (non-animated which would have included Disney's Encanto)

House of Gucci- 22m 5day/14m 3day (true story)

Old- 16.8m (not even original since based on a graphic novel)

Free Guy- 28.3m (included Disney IP and video game easter eggs)

 

(Jungle Cruise did 35 but of course is a Disney adaptation of... a theme park)

 

Upcoming films that can potentially reach that level:

The Lost City (breakout potential but probably another 12m 3day)

Ambulance- (remake, probably getting crushed by Sonic)

Father Stu- (Sony Christian release)

 

Northman won't go that high since it's Focus Features. 

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, BruiseCruise said:

Nah that article is cope, at this point any movie that relies on mainly male 18-34 demo is basically back to pre-pandemic levels and should be judged accordingly

Which might not be fair,since I don;t things will ever be back the way they were before the Covid hit.

Anyway 30 to 40 million US means that Uncharted  with a 300 Million break even point will be another borderline picture as far as sequels go.It will make only a minor profit compared to the investment..a big consideration in the film business.

[Pinacolada]

2 hours ago, dudalb said:

It says something the 30 Million US is now considered decent for a 150 million dollar film, while in pre Covid days it would be considered a box office fail.

$120m* budget

Edited February 16, 2022 by Pinacolada

[Pinacolada]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

12m 4day seems ok/solid for Dog? That's more than what Marry Me did in 4 days. 15m budget. But that 8m-10ish seems to really be the ideal range for these dramas, etc. Death on Nile, West Side Story, Respect, Dear Evan Hansen

 

Below that are the legit flops and/or simultaneous streaming: Last Duel, King Richard, Stillwater, Cry Macho, Nightmare Alley, Last Night in Soho.

 

Only original films to open higher: (non-animated which would have included Disney's Encanto)

House of Gucci- 22m 5day/14m 3day (true story)

Old- 16.8m (not even original since based on a graphic novel)

Free Guy- 28.3m (included Disney IP and video game easter eggs)

 

(Jungle Cruise did 35 but of course is a Disney adaptation of... a theme park)

 

Upcoming films that can potentially reach that level:

The Lost City (breakout potential but probably another 12m 3day)

Ambulance- (remake, probably getting crushed by Sonic)

Father Stu- (Sony Christian release)

 

Northman won't go that high since it's Focus Features. 

Yeah that would be great for Dog I think. However, I can not see it going that high. Could be wrong but I'm not feeling it. Sounds like it's not very good either

 

And yeah, I've always wondered that about The Northman. Why didn't they just make it a Universal movie instead of Focus Features? I get that it's an Eggers movie so it's "artsy", but that movie has at least a budget of $60m. It should be treated as a major event. So putting it under the Focus banner just makes it feel smaller. This is just a theory, but seeing the Universal logo before a TV spot or a trailer hits a signal in the audiences brain that what they're seeing is a "big, mainstream" movie. Whereas these sub-studios just don't have that effect. 

 

Plus, the online trailer views and likes for that were excellent across Youtube and Twitter. I really think this can find a pretty big audience for a $20m opening or so, but I feel like they're undercutting themselves by making it a Focus Features release.

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah that would be great for Dog I think. However, I can not see it going that high. Could be wrong but I'm not feeling it. Sounds like it's not very good either

 

And yeah, I've always wondered that about The Northman. Why didn't they just make it a Universal movie instead of Focus Features? I get that it's an Eggers movie so it's "artsy", but that movie has at least a budget of $60m. It should be treated as a major event. So putting it under the Focus banner just makes it feel smaller. This is just a theory, but seeing the Universal logo before a TV spot or a trailer hits a signal in the audiences brain that what they're seeing is a "big, mainstream" movie. Whereas these sub-studios just don't have that effect. 

 

Plus, the online trailer views and likes for that were excellent across Youtube and Twitter. I really think this can find a pretty big audience for a $20m opening or so, but I feel like they're undercutting themselves by making it a Focus Features release.

Perhaps the trailer makes it look as sellable to a mainstream audience as it possibly can be. Just a thought. The director's not exactly known for making crowd-pleasers.

[Gopher]

Northman, which I have definitely not seen, has artsy flairs and gets stranger as it goes but the action is consistent and epic enough that they should be putting the proper Universal banner behind it...

[keysersoze123]

The Batman MTC2

Tuesday - 3409/4151 54161.50 14 shows

Wednesday - 21066/38371 309667.25 182 shows

Thursday(T-16) - 39346/527406 535279.19 3488 shows

Friday(T-17) - 35217/742748 453583.63 4834 shows  

 

Relative to MTC1, MTC2 numbers have been meh. To state the obvious early shows are taking a bite of later days BO at this point.