The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[charlie Jatinder]

The Batman (T-17) Nationwide

Early access - $2.85M

THU - $3.65M

FRI - $2.6M

SAT and Rest - $2.4M

 

Total - $11.5M Approx

 

At same time

 

• 36% of Spider-man: No Way Home previews (1 day of sales) - $18.4M
  317% of Eternals previews - $30M
• 205% of Eternals Friday - $43.5M
• 27% of Spider-man: No Way Home overall (1 day of sales) - $70M OW
  244% of Eternals overall - $175M

 

The comps in themselves don't mean much. Looks to me around $20-25M previews, likely lower limit and $50-65M opening day for now.

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	248	28624	32298	3674	11.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

156

 

T-17 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	226.93		69	1619		0/96	13922/15541	10.42%		21.56m
NWH	27.67		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		13.83m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Eternals tickets had been on sale for eight days at this point while The Batman has been on sale for seven/five days (two days of those days were "Fan First" only ticket sales).  This was the first day of sales for No Way Home at this point in pre-sales.

 

T-17 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	159.57		94	2189		0/117	16941/19130	11.44%		22.06m
Bats (BW adj)	---		146	3493		0/197	22899/26392	13.24%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow tickets had been on sale for eleven days at this point while The Batman has been on sale for seven/five days (two days of those days were "Fan First" only ticket sales).

 

Tuesday Sales:        651/815     [79.88% sold]     [+8 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   918/1301   [70.56% sold]   [+23 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    2105/30182   [6.97% sold] [+125 tickets]

---

Regal:  996/10475  [9.51% sold] [+29 tickets]

Matinee: 156/4799 [3.25% | 4.25% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Looks like the Super Bowl did in fact have an affect, as numbers jumped locally by a decent margin.  Just enough to keep the current pace though.  Roped NWH back in.  Pace against NWH will take a hit for the next couple of days, so we'll just have to see where it stabilizes at.

 

The Batman Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	280	30966	34778	3812	10.96%

 

Total Showings Added Today	32
Total Seats Added Today	2480
Total Seats Sold Today	138

 

T-16 Unadjusted Comps 

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
ET	217.08		137	1756		0/96	13774/15530	11.31%		20.62m
NWH	26.04		1361	14640		0/273	19521/34161	42.86%		13.02m

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Eternals tickets had been on sale for nine days at this point while The Batman has been on sale for eight/six days (two days of those days were "Fan First" only ticket sales).  This was the second day of sales for No Way Home at this point in pre-sales.

 

T-16 Adjusted Comp 

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts/Shows	Seats Left/Total Seats	Perct Sold		Comp
BW	158.91		84	2273		0/117	16861/19134	11.88%		21.96m
Bats (BW adj)	---		119	3612		0/229	22560/28872	12.51%		---

COMP NOTE: The Batman comp has been adjusted to reflect the return of Ontario theaters to the DOM market (what would be normally be the comp/0.955).

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: Bats (BW adj) is the amount of seats sold that does not include the theaters which had unreliable data polluting their seat maps at that point in BW's track.

PRE-SALE NOTE:  Black Widow tickets had been on sale for twelve days at this point while The Batman has been on sale for eight/six days (two days of those days were "Fan First" only ticket sales).

 

Tuesday Sales:        653/815     [80.12% sold]     [+2 tickets]

Wednesday Sales:   943/1301   [72.48% sold]   [+25 tickets]

Thursday Sales:    2216/30182  [6.78% sold]  [+111 tickets]

---

Regal:  1017/10475  [9.71% sold] [+21 tickets]

Matinee: 157/4799   [3.27% | 4.12% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Eternals comp took a hit because this was when the news about Harry Styles broke its social media embargo was lifted. Probably continue to take a bit of a hit in the next day or so.  However, should mean a nice boost for the comp when Batsy has its social media lift.

 

Aside from that comment, nice enough day.  The Batman keeps on chugging along.

[Dragoncaine]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Batman (T-17) Nationwide

Early access - $2.85M

THU - $3.65M

FRI - $2.6M

SAT and Rest - $2.4M

 

Total - $11.5M Approx

 

At same time

 

36% of Spider-man: No Way Home previews (1 day of sales) - $18.4M

317% of Eternals previews - $30M

 

205% of Eternals Friday - $43.5M

 

27% of Spider-man: No Way Home overall (1 day of sales) - $70M OW
244% of Eternals overall - $175M

 

The comps in themselves don't mean much. Looks to me around $20-25M previews, likely lower limit and $50-65M opening day for now.

Does that mean we're looking at a pure Friday of $25-40m? Or are you counting previews separately?

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by Dragoncaine
Accidental quote

[TwoMisfits]

Next Tuesday is gonna see numbers like the old "family Tuesday" deals...TMobile has just posted their deals for next Tuesday (2/22) -

 

Atom Tickets: $2 Tuesdays ticket to any movie. 2/22 showtimes only.

[XXR & Friends]

55 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Does that mean we're looking at a pure Friday of $25-40m? Or are you counting previews separately?

Yes. FWIW, my prediction right now is basically 23-37-45-31 for 136.

Edited February 16, 2022 by PenguinXXR

[Eric S'ennui]

On 2/15/2022 at 12:30 AM, Eric Drake said:

Dog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	36	195	5001	3.90%

 

Comp

1.373x of West Side Story T-3 (1.1M)

1.318x of Death on the Nile T-3 (1.45M)

3.047x of Marry Me T-3 (1.6M)

 

It seems decent so far, but the big issue is that this is including today's Valentine's Day previews, which could make it harder for this to gain much momentum in the coming days. At the very least, this will be interesting.

Dog Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	206	5380	3.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp

1.062x of West Side Story T-2 (849K)

1.151x of Death on the Nile T-2 (1.27M)

2.543x of Marry Me T-2 (1.33M)

 

Even with the Monday previews, this is bizarrely low. Kinda nervous about this hitting double digits

[Eric S'ennui]

On 2/15/2022 at 12:36 AM, Eric Drake said:

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	61	560	11343	4.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 71

 

Comp

0.346x of F9 T-3 (2.46M)

0.758x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (3.1M)

0.318x of Venom 2 T-3 (3.69M)

0.534x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-3 (2.4M)

 

Yeah this movie's boned. Oh well!

Uncharted Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	691	12176	5.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 131

 

Comp

0.356x of F9 T-2 (2.53M)

0.769x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (3.15M)

0.319x of Venom 2 T-2 (3.71M)

0.536x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-2 (2.41M)

[Dragoncaine]

19 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

Yes. FWIW, my prediction right now is basically 23-37-45-31 for 136.

Thanks for this. I heard buzz that the social media embargo currently is set to drop the same day as reviews, 2/28, but that feels like a placeholder. If WB is that confident by screening it to everyone already, I'd imagine they would heavily consider moving the reactions embargo up like they did with Wonder Woman and Shazam to help maximize hype and presales.

Edited February 16, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[Eric S'ennui]

On 2/15/2022 at 12:50 AM, Eric Drake said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	179	4543	35317	12.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 183

 

Comp

0.598x of Black Widow's Final Count (7.9M)

0.956 of Shang-Chi's Final Count (8.41M)

0.867x of Venom 2's Final Count (10.06M)

0.861x of Eternals' Final Count (8.18M)

0.403x of No Way Home T-17 (20.17M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.337x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-17 (13.5M)

 

Hooray for a new comp. No Way Home is still arguably the best one we got and it does paint a very clear picture, though granted I'm using final counts for almost everything else. The NWH comp should decline for a couple days to account for NWH's big fan rush in its first week, but that's not anything too concerning and understandable for a big movie just starting out their presales run, so keep that in mind before going into doom and gloom.

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	179	4661	35317	13.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 118

 

Comp

0.614x of Black Widow's Final (8.1M)

0.981x of Shang-Chi's Final (8.63M)

0.890x of Venom 2's Final (10.32M)

0.884x of Eternals' Final (8.39M)

0.369x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-16 (18.46M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.343x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-16 (13.73M)

[XXR & Friends]

You know if I just took the data from Porthos and Eric, and extrapolated out a bit, I’m not sure that I get to $20M in previews….

 

(Disclaimer: I still expect over $20M but the numbers and trends VS the comps are a bit lacking.)

[Menor the Destroyer]

52 minutes ago, Eric Drake said:

The Batman Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	179	4661	35317	13.20%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 118

 

Comp

0.614x of Black Widow's Final (8.1M)

0.981x of Shang-Chi's Final (8.63M)

0.890x of Venom 2's Final (10.32M)

0.884x of Eternals' Final (8.39M)

0.369x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-16 (18.46M)

 

Adjusted Comp

0.343x of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker T-16 (13.73M)

Would it be possible to include a BW T-x comp? It will be too high but NWH and TROS probably are lowballing, and the final count comps are hard to parse.

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-2	Dog	Jacksonville	6	15	1,440	34	2	2.36%
		Phoenix	6	15	1,813	18	1	0.99%
		Raleigh	8	16	1,644	35	9	2.13%
	Dog Total		20	46	4,897	87	12	1.78%
T-2	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	46	7,536	260	35	3.45%
		Phoenix	6	23	4,393	272	35	6.19%
		Raleigh	7	30	3,887	246	32	6.33%
	Uncharted Total		19	99	15,816	778	102	4.92%

 

Dog (Thu) comp

Marry Me - .82x (428k)

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - 1.066x (4.37m)

Dune - .516x (2.63m)

Free Guy - 2.216x (4.88m)

Average - 3.96m

Day	Movie	Area	Theaters	Shows	Total Seats	Total Sold	New Sales	% Sold
T-1	Dog	Jacksonville	6	15	1,440	41	7	2.85%
		Phoenix	7	17	1,885	25	7	1.33%
		Raleigh	8	16	1,644	34	-1	2.07%
	Dog Total		21	48	4,969	100	13	2.01%
T-1	Uncharted	Jacksonville	6	49	8,528	298	38	3.49%
		Phoenix	7	30	4,846	326	54	6.73%
		Raleigh	7	31	3,935	310	64	7.88%
	Uncharted Total		20	110	17,309	934	156	5.40%
T-13	Batman (Tue)	Jacksonville	2	2	841	424	6	50.42%
		Phoenix	1	1	410	396	0	96.59%
		Raleigh	1	1	151	146	0	96.69%
	Batman (Tue) Total		4	4	1,402	966	6	68.90%
T-14	Batman (Wed)	Jacksonville	5	8	1,166	449	22	38.51%
		Phoenix	2	2	318	214	2	67.30%
	Batman (Wed) Total		7	10	1,484	663	24	44.68%
T-15	Batman	Jacksonville	7	125	20,403	688		3.37%
		Phoenix	6	107	17,555	1,138		6.48%
		Raleigh	28	105	11,777	964		8.19%
	Batman Total		41	337	49,735	2,790		5.61%

 

Dog (Thu) comp

Marry Me - .71x (372k)

 

Uncharted comps

TSS - .975x (3.997m)

Dune - .53x (2.7m)

Free Guy - 2.312x (5.09m)

Average - 3.93m

 

Batman T-15 comps (Thu sales only)

Spider-Man - .18x (8.95m)

Black Widow - 1.559x (20.57m)

 

Eternals T-14 - 2.028x (19.26m)

Edited February 16, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Add BW comp

[Tinalera]

The Batman

Toronto Ontario (Greater Ontario Area)

Thursday March 3 (taken feb 16)

83 shows

13 Theatres

 

Total Sold 2902

Total Remaining 16206

Total Seats 19108

Percentage 15.19 percent

 

So far only 1 Imax showing at certain theatres on Mar 2 (Seemed to be all sold out), so I just went with Mar 3 showing. Hopefully more seats become avail for Mar 2 so I can get better count.

[el sid]

Uncharted, counted today at 10am EST for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 219 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 161 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 44 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 28 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 54 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 219 (6 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 337 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.062.
Up 22.5% since Monday.

Comps (I have no Dune comps for that day): Ghostbusters: Afterlife (44.0M OW) had also on Wednesday of its release week 1.221 sold tickets for Thursday,

TSS (26.2M OW) had 1.656 sold tickets = 64% at the moment = 2.6M from previews (but no HBO Max competition).

And Sonic's (58.0M OW) final sales number was 1.120.
 

Uncharted, counted today at 10am EST for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 227 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 199 (12 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 78 (8 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 30 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 46 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 201 (10 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 201 (11 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 982.
Up 23.5% since Monday.

Comps: TSS had 1.317 sold tickets on Wednesday for Friday,

Jungle Cruise (35.0M OW) had 655 sold tickets

and Sonic's final sales number was 2.103.
Overall the presale numbers aren't bad but the daily jumps are a bit concerning. And also due to the mixed reviews I don't think that it will get a last-minute upswing. My guess at the moment would be ca. 25M 3-day.

Dog had today 47 sold tickets in 6 theaters (no showtimes in the AMC Fresh Meadows).
Comps (both counted on Wednesday for Friday): The Call of the Wild (24.8M OW) had also only 93 sold tickets in 6 theaters but of course a very well known book template and must have had super walk-ups.
And Clifford (16.6M OW) had 122 sold tickets in 7 theaters.
At the moment the weekend prediction above looks optimistic to me.

The Cursed had today 25 sold tickets for Friday with showtimes in 6 theaters.

Comps: Malignant (5.4M OW) had on Wednesday for Friday 167 sold tickets in 7 theaters, The Night House (2.9M OW) had 72 in 6 theaters and Antlers (4.3M OW) had on Tuesday 76 sold tickets in 7 theaters and 136 sold tickets on Thursday so ca. 100 sold tickets on Wednesday.
Unfortunately nothing to see here (unless The Cursed has great walk-ups).

[Eric S'ennui]

https://deadline.com/2022/02/super-bowl-movie-ads-doctor-strange-jurassic-world-dominion-lotr-social-media-spikes-1234935270/

 

[Maggie]

5 minutes ago, Eric Drake said:

https://deadline.com/2022/02/super-bowl-movie-ads-doctor-strange-jurassic-world-dominion-lotr-social-media-spikes-1234935270/

 

Jurassic not that far behind Strange and Strange absolutely exploded

[Fox20]

So Disney reported the Tv spot as another entity

 

 

Quote

Separately, Disney reports that the 30-second trailer of Doctor Strange 2 clocked 143Mglobal online views in the 24 hours post-Super Bowl, as well as an incremental 55M broadcast views. Online viewership was measured from Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Snapchat and Google searches.

 

[ZackM]

The Batman Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	7	8	3	47	39
Seats Added	717	1,377	133	9,735	3,506
Seats Sold	3,078	7,458	6,150	6,173	19,131
2/15/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	429	5,230	107,140	915,575	11.70%

 

 

ATP

$17.26

[excel1]

17 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The Batman (T-17) Nationwide

Early access - $2.85M

THU - $3.65M

FRI - $2.6M

SAT and Rest - $2.4M

 

Total - $11.5M Approx

 

At same time

 

• 36% of Spider-man: No Way Home previews (1 day of sales) - $18.4M
  317% of Eternals previews - $30M
• 205% of Eternals Friday - $43.5M
• 27% of Spider-man: No Way Home overall (1 day of sales) - $70M OW
  244% of Eternals overall - $175M

 

The comps in themselves don't mean much. Looks to me around $20-25M previews, likely lower limit and $50-65M opening day for now.

 

 

Charlie, you know there is no way this does below BvS unadjusted, right?

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

Charlie, you know there is no way this does below BvS unadjusted, right?

Nope I don't know that.