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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

The biggest surprise today was this movie:
Jujutsu Kaisen 0 counted today at 9am EST for Friday, March 18:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): error reports but 2 showtimes are „Almost Full“ (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 514 (4 showtimes, 4x IMAX)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 26+ (2 showtimes, 1 not clickable)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 53 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 62 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 168 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 98 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 921+.

Would have been over 1k tickets with NY. Really good!
Comps (both counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Belle (1.6M OW) had 25 sold tickets in 4 theaters

and My Hero Academia (6.3M OW) had 402 sold tickets in 4 theaters (= vs 842 sold tickets for Jujutsu Kaisen in the same 4 theaters) = 13M+ at the moment.

 

Umma had today for Friday in 4 theaters 29 sold tickets, not even that bad.
Comps (also counted on Monday for Friday): Antlers (4.3M OW) had 43 sold tickets in 7 theaters,

The Night House (2.9M OW) had 24 sold tickets in 5 theaters

and Malignant (5.4M OW) had in the same 6 theaters 100 sold tickets.

 

And X had in 6 theaters 50 sold tickets for Friday, also not that bad for a Monday. It has also 4 showtimes in the AMC Fresh Meadows but as mentioned I got only error reports after the Morbius tickets went on sale.

Will change to Thursday in the next days because The Forever Purge is the better comp.

I try to count Morbius tomorrow again. Today I could only open one showtime (20-25 sold tickets after 1 hour on sale) of the 10 it has in the AMC Fresh Meadows and then nothing worked anymore both for Thursday and Friday. Probably due to the traffic.

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BestPicturePlutoNash Box Office Gold

BestPicturePlutoNash

Posted
Posted

I don't think there's enough awareness here about these presales but looking now

 

MORBIUS

CINEMARK THURSDAY (4)

4 XD (2), 7 XD (2), 10 XD (0)

5 (0), 6 (0), 8 (0), 9 (0)

AMC THURSDAY (74)

4 DOLBY (13), 7 DOLBY (46)

5 IMAX (2), 8 IMAX (13)

430 (0), 730 (0)

 

78 total Thursday tickets for Morbius

 

SONIC

CINEMARK THURSDAY (0)

3 XD (0), 6 XD (0),

330 (0), 4 (0), 630 (0), 7 (0)

AMC THURSDAY (12)

3 DOLBY (8)

4 (0), 7 (4)

 

12 total Sonic Thursday tickets. 

 

Not much action for Sonic but unless it picks up steam or has heavy walk-ups, I'm taking Morbius over it. But I don't think either will be "huge"... yet

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lorddemaxus Global Phenomenon

lorddemaxus

Posted
Posted (edited)

I think Sonic 2 presales will point to a lower opening than the first film. No clue how walkups will be compared to the first film (which iirc had very good walkups), but I think the high end here is the first film's OW. I feel like a lot of the novelty is gone, and at least based on what I've seen anecdoctally, the 18-30 year old audience is going to have lower turn out. 

Edited by lorddemaxus
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misterpepp Sleeper Hit

misterpepp

Posted
Posted (edited)

Not really expecting Sonic 2 to pick up until much later. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the first entry didn't start gaining momentum until rather close to release, as tends to be the case for most family titles. Morbius being over for now makes sense, it's closer to the release and targets the audience more likely to pre-order.

 

I'm fully expecting Sonic 2 to have a larger OW and total than Morbius, by the way. Just saying it makes sense for pre-sales for Morbius to be higher at this current point.

Edited by datpepper
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

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Posted (edited)

Sonic 2 will be probably more walkup heavy than Morbius and (definitely will) have a significantly better IM. 

 

That said, I won't rule out Morbius having a walkup explosion like Venom. That may be the best superhero movie comp for this. 

Edited by Menor Reborn
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BestPicturePlutoNash Box Office Gold

BestPicturePlutoNash

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, BruiseCruise said:

I doubt Morbius will do better than Sonic 2, the latter has family appeal which should lead to really strong walkups on FSS, remember the first one had previews of like 3m and did 58m over 3 days

Already better sales here and Morbius is a superhero tie in with Sony/MCU. It keeps PLF screenings all weekend so Morbius could hit 50m if bad taste prevails

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Sonic 2 will be probably more walkup heavy than Morbius and (definitely will) have a significantly better IM. 

 

That said, I won't rule out Morbius having a walkup explosion like Venom. That may be the best superhero movie comp for this. 

 

Oh, LTBC is absolutely the best comp for Morbius.  The main problem with direct comp between the two was the WOM from those free fan screenings which fueled the late takeoff.  Without that WOM I don't think Venom 2 would have had such a strong Sun-Tue, though Wed/Thr might have been similar.  So is something to keep in mind.

 

===

 

@Inceptionzq  

 

Gonna be giving a cursory glance to both new films tonight.  If Sonic 2 passes an arbitrary threshold I have in my head against Ghostbusters: Afterlife, which while not the greatest comp in the world feels like it should be in the right ballpark, then I might track it.

 

Might just track it to get a pure family film in the comp block for later entries like Lightyear and whatnot.

 

As for Morbius, also gonna use an arbitrary benchmark against LTBC and decide from there.

Edited by Porthos
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Grebacio Box Office Gold

Grebacio

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think there's enough awareness here about these presales but looking now

 

MORBIUS

CINEMARK THURSDAY (4)

4 XD (2), 7 XD (2), 10 XD (0)

5 (0), 6 (0), 8 (0), 9 (0)

AMC THURSDAY (74)

4 DOLBY (13), 7 DOLBY (46)

5 IMAX (2), 8 IMAX (13)

430 (0), 730 (0)

 

78 total Thursday tickets for Morbius

 

SONIC

CINEMARK THURSDAY (0)

3 XD (0), 6 XD (0),

330 (0), 4 (0), 630 (0), 7 (0)

AMC THURSDAY (12)

3 DOLBY (8)

4 (0), 7 (4)

 

12 total Sonic Thursday tickets. 

 

Not much action for Sonic but unless it picks up steam or has heavy walk-ups, I'm taking Morbius over it. But I don't think either will be "huge"... yet

Mark my words, Morbius will have a higher OW, but Sonic will have a higher total.

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Eric is Quiet Global Phenomenon

Eric is Quiet

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

How much is Early access among these.

 

Whenever there are such early access screenings, I think we should mention them in post separately in a footnote for future references. Thanks.

49 out of 146.

 

I don't really see the reason for dividing them out since they will get rolled in together almost every time, but I'll try and divide up Early Access for next time.

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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Menor Reborn said:

Sonic 2 will be probably more walkup heavy than Morbius and (definitely will) have a significantly better IM. 

 

That said, I won't rule out Morbius having a walkup explosion like Venom. That may be the best superhero movie comp for this. 

Except that Venom is a very popular charecter...which is not the case witj Mobius.

That is pretty important difference.

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poweranimals Box Office Gold

poweranimals

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I really hope Sonic 2 doesn't end up flopping like TMNT Out of the Shadows did.

People didn't even like the first MB TMNT though.

 

 

 

15 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Hopefully Sony didn’t actually begin filming on Kraven before the Morbius box office 

Why? It's not like they're gonna cancel it if it doesn't do well.

Edited by poweranimals
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