The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

So Thor 4 and DS2 are on equal footing if they are targeting the same range. Doesn't seem right, Thor 4 doesn't seem as big as DS2.

Yeah I think they will be about similar size. BP should be bigger though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, Movies4Life said:

@charlie Jatinder, how can you say Doctor Strange 2 is set for a near $200M opening weekend based on $15M in first 24-hour presales: https://twitter.com/meJat32/status/1512250746321793026?s=20&t=OTM3b_3pV4bwtOj55fFcRA? I mean The Batman made $8.5M in first 24-hour presales and lead to a $134M OW. So, there's that. But this statistic has me... curious and wondering how you can make that assumption.

Because 15 is a lot?

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sonic 2 Harkins California and Phoenix 4 T-1 Day

 

California - 905/8639 on 29 shows
Phoenix 4 - 616/5211 on 26 shows

Total - 1521/13850 on 55 shows

 

Comps

1.38x The Suicide Squad T-1 day - $5.5M

0.44x Shang Chi T-1 day - $4M

 

 

Not the best of comps but these are what I have for now. Not only the other two are CBMs but Sonic also burned 1226 audiences in early access shows today in these cinemas. For sake of it, including those would mean 79% of Shang Chi i.e. $7M approx.

 

Sonic 2 will be making big gain on these two tomorrow with walkins. I think final THU be something like 4-4.5k in these, which would be good for $6Mish pure THU. 

 

Sonic 2 Harkins California and Phoenix 4

 

California - 2078/8639 on 29 shows

Phoenix - 1726/5211 on 26 shows + 100 on 2 shows

 

Total - 3804/13850 + 100

 

There are 6-7 shows walk-ins pending and will reach 3.9K may be. Will update as it will be.

 

Comps

1.2 The Suicide Squad Gross - $4.9M
0.575x Shang Chi Gross - $5M

0.8x Morbius Gross - $4.6M

1.43x Uncharted Gross - $5.2M

 

Not as high as other places have. Donno why. Slightly higher burn in Early Access screening though then nationwide. Including those comps should jump around 30%, which still gives $6.1-6.75M ish. I like Uncharted comp. $5-5.25M THU perhaps.

 

Edit: I missed two shows in Phoenix 4. Those probably did another 100+.

Edited April 8, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

11 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Because 15 is a lot?

I guess this suffice. 

Pre-sales reading is more than just normal comparisons. Need to see how things gonna pan out in full picture and there are various factors to consider.

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Sonic 2 Harkins California and Phoenix 4

 

California - 2078/8639 on 29 shows

Phoenix - 1726/5211 on 26 shows + 100 on 2 shows

 

Total - 3804/13850 + 100

 

There are 6-7 shows walk-ins pending and will reach 3.9K may be. Will update as it will be.

 

Comps

1.2 The Suicide Squad Gross - $4.9M
0.575x Shang Chi Gross - $5M

0.8x Morbius Gross - $4.6M

1.43x Uncharted Gross - $5.2M

 

Not as high as other places have. Donno why. Slightly higher burn in Early Access screening though then nationwide. Including those comps should jump around 30%, which still gives $6.1-6.75M ish. I like Uncharted comp. $5-5.25M THU perhaps.

 

Edit: I missed two shows in Phoenix 4. Those probably did another 100+.

Hmm. Checked other regionals. Final day comps are all around $6M ish. So I guess Harkins isn't an outlier. Well done Harkins, you never fails.

[robertman2]

6 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Why you rooting for the dumb kids film?

because it rules

[lorddemaxus]

47 minutes ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

because it rules

Did they use FPV drones in this movie? They didn't. So it doesn't rule.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	23151	24368	1217	4.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

150

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	74.16		149	1641		0/108	15846/17487	9.38%		5847	20.81%		6.53m
NTTD	103.84		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		7712	15.78%		6.44m
Dune	123.93		82	982		0/78	11060/12042	8.15%		2915	41.75%		6.32m
GB:A	179.23		99	679		0/116	16677/17356	3.91%		3034	40.11%		8.07m
Morbius	123.30		61	987		0/144	19867/20854	4.73%		3477	35.00%		7.03m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:       183/6478  [2.82% sold]
Matinee:    84/3926  [2.14% | 6.90% of all tickets sold]

===

 

Stayed more or less flat from yesterday.  Not too shabby at all.

 

Secrets of Dumbledore Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23452	24768	1316	5.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	400
Total Seats Sold Today	99

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
SC	74.18		133	1774		0/111	15837/17611	10.07%		5847	22.51%		6.53m
NTTD	101.08		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		7712	17.06%		6.27m
Dune	125.57		66	1048		0/79	11280/12328	8.50%		2915	45.15%		6.40m
GB:A	178.80		57	736		0/116	16620/17356	4.24%		3034	43.38%		8.05m
Morbius	125.93		58	1045		0/144	19809/20854	5.01%		3477	37.85%		7.18m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Secrets of Dumbledore's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

PRE-SALE NOTE: No Time to Die tickets had been on sale for four days more than Secrets of Dumbledore has been at this at this point in tracking while Shang-Chi, Dune. Ghostbusters: Afterlife, and Morbius's tickets have all been on sale for one more day than FB3.

  

Regal:     193/6790  [2.84% sold]
Matinee:    89/4082  [2.18% | 6.76% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	34167	40916	6749	16.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

6749

 

Day One Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	50.82		13279	13279		0/225	14920/28199	47.09%		28183	23.95%		25.41m
Batsy:	234.26		2406	2881		0/248	29316/32197	8.95%		11757	57.40%		50.60m

* NOTE: The Batman had two days of sales where only a limited number of early access showings were available for purchase - those two days of sales accounted for 475 tickets sold.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final
BW:	9196	73.39%
SC:	5847	115.43%
LTBC:	7712	87.51%
ET:	6409	105.31%
NWH:	28183	23.95%
Batsy:	11757	57.40%

 

Regal:     1521/10901  [13.95% sold]
Matinee:    325/4632  [7.02% | 4.82% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Slowed down from noon, but at nearly 7k tickets sold, that's a huge quibble.  And, frankly, to be expected.

 

Just a smashing great day.

 

No real good comps, so put in No Way Home and The Batman and then corralled a percentage of final sold for a bunch of CBMs.  Might play with the format a little more but, as one might guess, after counting seats for **two hours**, I'm a little pressed for time.

 

More thoughts later.  Maybe.  Or maybe not.

 

 

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	329	33513	40916	7403	18.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

654

 

Day Two Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NWH:	50.57		1361	14640		0/273	19521/34161	42.86%		28183	26.27%		25.28m
Batsy:	228.84		354	3235		0/248	29063/32298	10.02%		11757	62.97%		49.43m

NOTE: The Batman had two days of sales where only a limited number of early access showings were available for purchase - those two days of sales accounted for 475 tickets sold.

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Multiverse of Madness has sold...

	Final Sold	% of Final
BW:	9196	80.50%
SC:	5847	126.61%
LTBC:	7712	95.99%
ET:	6409	115.51%
NWH:	28183	26.27%
Batsy:	11757	62.97%

 

Regal:     1675/10901  [15.37% sold]
Matinee:    375/4632  [8.10% | 5.07% of all tickets sold]

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Excellent day 2 in Sacramento and Philly to not fall off NWH.

@Porthos what are you thinking comp wise? Because first x days of sales won't work and no film recently had 29 days of sale. 

I guess from day 5 may be start comping with T-14 NWH till it reach T-14?

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Excellent day 2 in Sacramento and Philly to not fall off NWH.

@Porthos what are you thinking comp wise? Because first x days of sales won't work and no film recently had 29 days of sale. 

I guess from day 5 may be start comping with T-14 NWH till it reach T-14?

Was thinking of having no comps, actually, and just go with percentage of final gross.  Do think day five is the perfect offramp for comps, and had already penciled that in on my internal to-do plan.

 

Not ideal, but then again, neither is the next best comp time-wise, Black Widow, as funny of a comp it may be.

 

So almost certainly, no comps at all, starting on Sunday.

Edited April 8, 2022 by Porthos

[Cooper Legion]

I was thinking of coming by % of ps window. E.g. DS2 has 30 days, NWH 18, DS2 D10/T-19 will be 1/3 of the run, comp it with NWH 1/3 is D6/T-11

[charlie Jatinder]

@Porthos not a direct comp since your coverage increased a lot but trend wise maybe take a leaf from Infinity War

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by charlie Jatinder
this may take 5 mins to load since I changed it. so check back in 5.

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

I was thinking of coming by % of ps window. E.g. DS2 has 30 days, NWH 18, DS2 D10/T-19 will be 1/3 of the run, comp it with NWH 1/3 is D6/T-11

won't work since the ramp up mostly start at same time for all films. Just that if you start back your bottom of U will be very low.

[Juby]

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-doctor-strange-in-the-multiverse-of-madness/

 

5/6/2022

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

$165,000,000 – $205,000,000

NEW

$400,000,000 – $535,000,000

[YM!]

I’d be pretty bummed if Sonic did just 6m in previews today. 55m-62m would be more likely than 65-70m.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

I’d be pretty bummed if Sonic did just 6m in previews today. 55m-62m would be more likely than 65-70m.

Yeah, @charlie Jatinder might be a bit too optimistic with this movie, I feel. Your number is far more realistic and will probably be the one we get come Sunday.

 

Families, at least in the US, are mostly done with theaters and perfectly content with waiting for an at-home option, so it's up to the fans and young men (a. k. a. the Marvel crowd) to make this one a hit. Opening anywhere near the first is a huge win since these talking animal movies tend to fall off when the sequel comes around.

 

Without the pandemic, I honestly think this would've had a decent chance for a Dark Knight-style breakout. Now, I'm not so sure.

 

Still, Jatinder could be right on the money. Again, I've been getting clapped hard this past year, so I won't be making any more sweeping statements without solid evidence.

 

The verified audience score is a good sign at least.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Yeah, @charlie Jatinder might be a bit too optimistic with this movie, I feel. Your number is far more realistic and will probably be the one we get come Sunday.

 

Families, at least in the US, are mostly done with theaters and perfectly content with waiting for an at-home option, so it's up to the fans and young men (a. k. a. the Marvel crowd) to make this one a hit. Opening anywhere near the first is a huge win since these talking animal movies tend to fall off when the sequel comes around.

 

Without the pandemic, I honestly think this would've had a decent chance for a Dark Knight-style breakout. Now, I'm not so sure.

 

Still, Jatinder could be right on the money. Again, I've been getting clapped hard this past year, so I won't be making any more sweeping statements without solid evidence.

 

The verified audience score is a good sign at least.

I think pandemic or not best Sonic 2 could’ve done was stay flattish ($70m OW) with stronger legs. I think families are back but when previews start at 3 pm and $1.25m is from early access, with family movie multiples a sub $60m OW is more likely than over $70m.

[YM!]

@Thanos Legion Any ideas on the OW for Sonic 2?

[ImNotRacistAtAll]

God I'd love to see the 7 for Sonic 2. 70M is enough for my soul.