The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tokugennumataka]

24 minutes ago, SupermanLego said:

If DS2 makes 240m it just makes NWH look lame. Tbf imo the hype for DS2 is not on that level.

260M on a Dec >> upto 240M on a May. Even if DS opens at that range, I expect it to finish 180-200M lower than NWH. That said, wouldn't be surprised if BP2 opens to NWH numbers. 

[Cooper Legion]

14 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Whats the math on this, because that definitely doesn’t seem correct? I assume you mean OW comped against the record? Because on a ticket price basis, $240M today would be more sold than AoU OW and way more than $160M in 2015.

Went atp to 2019 (bit below tlj I think, right?) And ranks from 2019 to april 2015 (since I feel ows inflate faster than atp).   
 

There’s a cluster of TDK, TDKR, and DH2 around 160-170 in 3rd-5th place at the time.  
 

Another way to look it would be: 

240M is ~ 7th place adjusted OW (looking Here and assuming 7%+ inflation since 2019 to take TLJ last 240)

In April 2015, 7th place adjusted would be between SM1 and TDKR (after TA, TDK, SM3, DH2, DMC) with ~168-172 adjusted OWs

 

But like the basic intuition is that you’re floating around the bottom of the top 10 in OW tickets sold — you could maybe get even better by trying to convert a 240 DS2 into a particular True FSS (200) and then adjusting that and comparing with historical true FSS evolution, but that’s more work so meh.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[charlie Jatinder]

Jurassic World: Dominion Harkins T-42 Days

 

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	226	60,184	233	0.39%	$2,644	$11.35
Cine 1	27	8,097	506	6.25%	$7,609	$15.04
Cine Capri	5	2,082	53	2.55%	$735	$13.87
IMAX	3	1,335	65	4.87%	$1,040	$16.00
3D	57	8,987	28	0.31%	$409	$14.61
Total	318	80,685	885	1.10%	$12,437	$14.05

 

Comps

1.88x Shang Chi first day of sales - $16.5M

0.85x Eternals first day of sales - $8.1M

 

I don't have any good comp for this but $16.5M against SC is very good especially when SC first day was 25 days later. Without any comps, I would say quite good start.

[Cooper Legion]

TBC I never use % of #1 when endgame is involved because it’s too much of an outlier — I would consider % of #2 or something (current #2 is 260, in April 2025 it was IM3 with 174M, so 67%… takes 240 to 160M 😂). I think it’s pretty fair to say that OW growth vs 7 years ago is on the order of 40-50%.

[Cooper Legion]

Only ranks 6 and 9 have small enough growth that 240 would correspond to above 180, and even then just barely. And observed rank growth should slightly underestimate real given recent unusually high inflation. 240M/1.4=171M, so like 165-170 final answer now that you guys have made me look into this further 😛   
 

Spoiler

Apr 2015			Apr 2022		Growth
1	Marvel's The Avengers	$207,438,708	Avengers: Endgame	$357,115,007	72.15%
2	Iron Man 3	$174,144,585	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$260,138,569	49.38%
3	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$169,189,427	Avengers: Infinity War	$257,698,183	52.31%
4	The Dark Knight Rises	$160,887,295	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens	$247,966,675	54.12%
5	The Dark Knight	$158,411,483	Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi	$220,009,584	38.88%
6	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	$158,074,286	Jurassic World	$208,806,270	32.09%
7	The Hunger Games	$152,535,747	The Avengers	$207,438,708	35.99%
8	Spider-Man 3	$151,116,516	Black Panther	$202,003,951	33.67%
9	Furious 7	$147,187,040	The Lion King	$191,770,759	30.29%
10	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	$142,839,137	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$191,271,109	33.91%
Avg 2-10		$157,153,946		$220,789,312	40.07%

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Illuminegion Confirmed

[Mr Terrific]

As an old, I thought it was funny when the youngs thought old dads would think Ford vs. Ferrari was the primo stuff
Top Gun 2 is actually it. 
Blue Magic. Blue Sky. Mr. Brownstone. 
 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Only ranks 6 and 9 have small enough growth that 240 would correspond to above 180, and even then just barely. And observed rank growth should slightly underestimate real given recent unusually high inflation. 240M/1.4=171M, so like 165-170 final answer now that you guys have made me look into this further 😛   
 

  Hide contents

Apr 2015			Apr 2022		Growth
1	Marvel's The Avengers	$207,438,708	Avengers: Endgame	$357,115,007	72.15%
2	Iron Man 3	$174,144,585	Spider-Man: No Way Home	$260,138,569	49.38%
3	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$169,189,427	Avengers: Infinity War	$257,698,183	52.31%
4	The Dark Knight Rises	$160,887,295	Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens	$247,966,675	54.12%
5	The Dark Knight	$158,411,483	Star Wars: Episode VIII - The Last Jedi	$220,009,584	38.88%
6	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	$158,074,286	Jurassic World	$208,806,270	32.09%
7	The Hunger Games	$152,535,747	The Avengers	$207,438,708	35.99%
8	Spider-Man 3	$151,116,516	Black Panther	$202,003,951	33.67%
9	Furious 7	$147,187,040	The Lion King	$191,770,759	30.29%
10	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	$142,839,137	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$191,271,109	33.91%
Avg 2-10		$157,153,946		$220,789,312	40.07%

 

Hmm, but I think 1-4 on the second list were just more anticipated films than 1-4 on the first (+TDKR deflated by shooting). I think you have to go all the way down to TDK to find something that is on IW/TFA level and that is a 2008 film (would have been higher in 2015). 

 

Basically I don't agree with just using rank growth as how big the OW is, though I don't necessarily have a better way. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Hmm, but I think 1-4 on the second list were just more anticipated films than 1-4 on the first (+TDKR deflated by shooting). I think you have to go all the way down to TDK to find something that is on IW/TFA level and that is a 2008 film (would have been higher in 2015). 

Well, 2-4 have 50-55% growth and I settled on ~40%, so… I agree 😛 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/22/2022 at 8:56 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Fantastic Beasts 3	3,376	55,593	-48.93%	49,224	6,369	3,721	0
The Bad Guys	3,297	67,781		60,375	7,406	0	5,087
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	3,125	50,850	-32.43%	49,928	922	0	0
The Northman	2,890	40,906		38,627	2,279	0	0
Massive Talent	2,708	39,439		39,340	99	0	0
Father Stu	2,341	25,836	-6.70%	25,775	61	0	0
The Lost City	2,344	24,378	-20.48%	24,323	55	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,919	20,363	-7.96%	20,352	11	0	0
Morbius	1,910	16,923	-45.67%	16,898	25	0	0
Ambulance	1,728	12,131	-60.96%	12,093	38	0	0
The Batman	1,394	9,386	-45.49%	9,381	5	0	0
Uncharted	462	3,129	-57.79%	3,129	0	0	0
¿Y cómo es él?	311	4,685		4,670	15	0	0
Jersey	307	2,539		2,539	0	0	0
K.G.F Chapter 2	343	3,065	-46.76%	3,065	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 4/22/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

 

The Bad Guys - 67,781 (3,297 TC) (7,406 PLF shows)

 - Addams Family - 68,219 (3,204)

 - Moonfall - 64,611 (3,241)

The Northman - 40,906 (2,890 TC) (2,279 PLF shows)

 - Last Night in Soho - 37,843 (2,701 TC) (2,168 PLF)

 - Antlers - 36,968 (2,572 TC) (119 PLF)

 - Reminiscence - 37,739 (2,931 TC) (1,670 PLF)

The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent - 39,439 (2,708 TC) (99 PLF)

 - Copshop - 37,892 (2,641)

 - House of Gucci - 38,900 (2,933)

 

T-1 Week Comps

Memory - 14,955 (1,210 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 13,939 (1,254)

 - Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231)

 - CopShop - 16,693 (1,519)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Doctor Strange 2 - 31,994 (2,883 TC) (7,448 PLF shows)

 - Batman - 23,704 (2,907) (2,480 PLF)

 - Spider-Man - 26,573 (2,935) (4,775 PLF)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Family Camp - 1,472 (509 TC)

 - Redeeming Love - 1,403 (1,033)

 - Marry Me - 2,115 (1,068)

 

T-4 Week Previews

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 1,827 (1,810 TC)

Downton Abbey - 3,057 (1,982 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,871 (1,325)

 

Other

The Harbingers of Things to Come (5/12 Fathom) - 837 (818 TC)

ABBA: The Movie - Fan Event (5/12 & 5/14) - 893 (892 TC)

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,346 (624 TC)

 

Only seeing about 150 theaters listed so far for Top Gun so I'll wait until next week for that one.

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Bad Guys	3,238	55,588	-17.99%	51,710	3,878	0	1,999
Sonic the Hedgehog 2	3,070	43,794	-13.88%	42,494	1,300	0	0
Fantastic Beasts 3	3,152	40,355	-27.41%	37,345	3,010	1,798	0
The Northman	2,795	34,127	-16.57%	32,570	1,557	0	0
Massive Talent	2,579	31,138	-21.05%	31,027	111	0	0
Memory	2,233	31,063		30,974	89	0	0
Everything Everywhere	1,920	21,833	7.22%	19,827	2,006	1,841	0
The Lost City	2,071	21,352	-12.41%	21,297	55	0	0
Father Stu	2,034	21,299	-17.56%	21,255	44	0	0
Morbius	1,390	11,920	-29.56%	11,897	23	0	0
Ambulance	1,169	8,169	-32.66%	8,144	25	3	0
The Batman	832	5,070	-45.98%	5,067	3	0	0
Spider-Man: NWH	470	3,170		3,149	21	0	21
Acharya	318	3,023		2,785	238	0	0
¿Y cómo es él?	255	2,597	-44.57%	2,592	5	0	0
Runway 34	288	2,449		2,449	0	0	0
Uncharted	307	2,243	-28.32%	2,241	2	2	0
Heropanti 2	216	1,971		1,971	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 4/22/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

 

Memory - 31,063 (2,233 TC)

 - Studio 666 - 30,292 (2,145)

 - Last Duel - 32,124 (2,731)

 - CopShop - 30,531 (2,468)

 

 

T-1 Week

Doctor Strange 2 - 173,506 (3,205 TC) (38,061 PLF shows)

 - Batman - 125,394 (3,125) (14,002 PLF)

 - Spider-Man - 135,877 (3,146) (25,877 PLF)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Firestarter - 2,811 (1,150 TC)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

 - Jackass Forever - 2,779 (1,845)

 - JJK0 - 2,855 (1,454)

Family Camp - 1,549 (532 TC)

  - WSS - 1,507 (613)

 - Massive Talent - 1,490 (831)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Downton Abbey (5/18 EA) - 1,977 (1,959 TC)

Downton Abbey - 3,261 (2,125 TC)

 - Father Stu - 3,017 (1,359)

 

T-4 Week Previews

Top Gun: Maverick (5/24 EA) - 188 (172 TC)

Top Gun: Maverick - 8,786 (822 TC)

 - Venom - 12,067 (1,934)

 

T-6 Week Previews

Jurassic World: Dominion - 14,816 (1,827 TC) (4,408 PLF)

 

Other

The Harbingers of Things to Come (5/12 Fathom) - 854 (827 TC)

ABBA: The Movie - Fan Event (5/12 & 5/14) - 936 (474 TC)

Twenty One Pilots Cinema Experience (5/19 & 5/22) - 1,482 (659 TC)

Fortune Favors Lady Nikuko - Fan Event (6/2) - 590 (588 TC)

[Menor the Destroyer]

7 minutes ago, Illuminegion Confirmed said:

Well, 2-4 have 50-55% growth and I settled on ~40%, so… I agree 😛 

Fair. I think another reason it feels a little weird is because we then saw 2 OW record-breakers in 2015, so in a sense AoU is helped in the comparison just by being a few months earlier. 

 

Hmm. I guess that would still leave it in that 160-170 cluster. Idk. 

Edited April 29, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[Cooper Legion]

Was bored and curious, so…

 

Previous 7 year gap had about 40% growth among top OWs

Spoiler

Apr 2008			Apr 2015		Growth
1	Spider-Man 3	$151,116,516	Marvel's The Avengers	$207,438,708	37.27%
2	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	$135,634,554	Iron Man 3	$174,144,585	28.39%
3	Shrek the Third	$121,629,270	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$169,189,427	39.10%
4	Spider-Man	$114,844,116	The Dark Knight Rises	$160,887,295	40.09%
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	$114,732,820	The Dark Knight	$158,411,483	38.07%
6	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	$108,435,841	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	$158,074,286	45.78%
7	Shrek 2	$108,037,878	The Hunger Games	$152,535,747	41.19%
8	X-Men: The Last Stand	$102,750,665	Spider-Man 3	$151,116,516	47.07%
9	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	$102,685,961	Furious 7	$147,187,040	43.34%
10	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	$93,687,367	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	$142,839,137	52.46%
Avg 2-10		$111,382,052		$157,153,946	41.72%

The 7 year period before that had wild 100% growth! More active theater expansion back during the turn of the century iirc, and per capita attendance wasn’t falling so bad for the overall market:

 

Spoiler

Apr 2001			Apr 2008		Growth
1	The Lost World: Jurassic Park	$72,132,785	Spider-Man 3	$151,116,516	109.50%
2	THE PHANTOM MENACE	$64,820,970	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	$135,634,554	109.24%
3	Hannibal	$58,003,121	Shrek the Third	$121,629,270	109.69%
4	MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE 2	$57,845,297	Spider-Man	$114,844,116	98.54%
5	TOY STORY 2	$57,388,839	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	$114,732,820	99.92%
6	HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS	$55,082,330	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	$108,435,841	96.86%
7	THE SPY WHO SHAGGED ME	$54,917,604	Shrek 2	$108,037,878	96.73%
8	X-MEN	$54,471,475	X-Men: The Last Stand	$102,750,665	88.63%
9	Batman Forever	$52,784,433	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	$102,685,961	94.54%
10	Men in Black	$51,068,455	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	$93,687,367	83.45%
Avg 2-10		$56,264,725		$111,382,052	97.51%

 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Fair. I think another reason it feels a little weird is because we then saw 2 OW record-breakers in 2015, so in a sense AoU is helped in the comparison just by being a few months earlier. 

Happy to circle around for dec 2022 vs dec 2015 but Thor (?), BP2 will also be added to the top 10 to balance out jw1 and tfa somewhat.

[filmlover]

Numerous family members of mine (including my mom) and other people I know over 50 are absolutely psyched for Top Gun. It's gonna make a killing for sure.

[BruiseCruise]

52 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

260M on a Dec >> upto 240M on a May. Even if DS opens at that range, I expect it to finish 180-200M lower than NWH. That said, wouldn't be surprised if BP2 opens to NWH numbers. 

Can you explain this? May is only holidays for college kids whereas when NWH came out pretty much all school/college kids were on break + christmas/new year for working adults 

 

Also DS2 will have summer legs  so why would it fall that much short of NWH when it could open to within 20m?

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Can you explain this? May is only holidays for college kids whereas when NWH came out pretty much all school/college kids were on break + christmas/new year for working adults 

 

Also DS2 will have summer legs  so why would it fall that much short of NWH when it could open to within 20m?

First of all 240m is a high end goal for DS2. Also, it's not going to have summer legs, it's opening at the beginning of May.

[Grebacio]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

Can anyone import the chart   https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-top-gun-maverick-and-bobs-burgers/

 

Anyway, they are pretty bullish on TG 2

Even though I expect Top Gun to be a hit, I think those numbers are too much. 
I predict 78M OW - 222M DOM

[HouseOfTheSun]

Top Gun is gonna do what American Sniper did and everyone on these boards are going to be confused as to what went wrong with their predictions. This shits gonna be Boomer Endgame. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

I don’t see $130M for TG2 (top end on the BOP prediction) but I can definitely see $95-110M. Basically “Solo” numbers (tickets sold + inflation) over the same opening weekend. It may not be huge WW but nostalgia + American military exceptionalism will play well domestically.

[titanic2187]

35 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Top Gun is gonna do what American Sniper did and everyone on these boards are going to be confused as to what went wrong with their predictions. This shits gonna be Boomer Endgame. 

I believe TGM is one of the most “right” movie on big screen in recent years. “Right” wing audience are underserved, they will come out in force and a indirect war with Russia now can only amplify the sentiment.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 4/26/2022 at 9:00 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Doctor Strange Harkins T-10 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	368	93,906	12,201	12.99%	$136,296	$11.17
Cine 1	32	9,821	5,768	58.73%	$84,703	$14.68
Cine Capri	6	2,673	654	24.47%	$8,964	$13.71
IMAX	4	1,780	964	54.16%	$15,424	$16.00
3D	54	8,674	523	6.03%	$7,214	$13.79
Total	464	116,854	20,110	17.21%	$252,601	$12.56

 

I had set a 21K target at T-10 days initially but adj down to 20K soon after that and it was able to match that. The pace so far has been good, adding 1.5k in last 4 days. 

 

The best locs like Cerritos, Estrella Falls, Mountain Grove are very close to NWH at same time at almost 75-90%, the smaller ones are bit behind and will get good jumps near release. 

 

Comps

55% of Spider-man: No Way Home - $28M

 

Looks good for $35M+ previews as of now. 

 

As always, data courtesy of @Menor Reborn

Doctor Strange 2 Harkins T-7 Days

Format	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Normal	411	100,997	14,539	14.40%	$162,717	$11.19
Cine 1	32	9,821	6,014	61.24%	$88,290	$14.68
Cine Capri	6	2,673	690	25.81%	$9,384	$13.60
IMAX	4	1,780	1,017	57.13%	$16,272	$16.00
3D	60	9,534	668	7.01%	$9,167	$13.72
Total	513	124,805	22,928	18.37%	$285,830	$12.47

 

 

Going great with 2.8K added in 3 days, last two days being 1k. Need target is to hit 30K by T-3 days. Not like it need to but will be great.