The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, cookie said:

Are Lightyear tickets not out in the U.S yet? Can't seem to find any bookable showings on Fandango.

Tickets drop tomorrow. They did the same strategy of "tickets a week before release" with Encanto and Bob's Burgers. Not sure why, but that's just how Disney rolls I suppose.

[katnisscinnaplex]

41 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Is this a good increase for JW Dominion? I am in Raleigh and anecdotally wom is pretty good atm.

Here's what my comps did from Friday to Monday (since I missed weekend updates.)
 

JW3 +35.7%

BW +18.65%

Eternals +20.3%

F9 +39%

TG:M +40.2%

 

A little behind the non CBM movies, but since it's ahead in total sales I guess that's okay? If I had to put a guess in today I'd say around $17.5m.  (Just checked the Dune comp and it's at 18.35m so that brought me up a little)

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Eric Mitchell said:

Tickets drop tomorrow. They did the same strategy of "tickets a week before release" with Encanto and Bob's Burgers. Not sure why, but that's just how Disney rolls I suppose.

Dont wanna give last mins refunds in case they wanna put movie on D+

Edited June 6, 2022 by charlie Jatinder
i am half joking.

[Shawn Robbins]

17 hours ago, Nublar7 said:

What would you say is the floor right now for Dominion? Like the absolute lowest domestic opening weekend it could realistically see?

Roughly $155-160M worst case as of today. This has never been a giant pre-sales franchise and the ticket price inflation since 2018 should at least get it higher than FK even if admissions were to drop. Final marketing push this week will be hugely important though to get it toward the upper end of tracking.

[Bigscrubnus]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Roughly $155-160M worst case as of today. This has never been a giant pre-sales franchise and the ticket price inflation since 2018 should at least get it higher than FK even if admissions were to drop. Final marketing push this week will be hugely important though to get it toward the upper end of tracking.

What do you think the ceiling is? If you’re saving that for the Wednesday forecast I don’t mind lol.

[Ezen Baklattan]

On 6/3/2022 at 11:28 PM, filmlover said:

Just realized that potentially four movies (Elvis, The Black Phone, Lightyear, Jurassic World) could be doing $20M+ on the weekend of June 24. Five (with Top Gun) if we extend that to $10M+. Pretty sure that would be a first for the pandemic era?

At this rate Top Gun could be $20m too lol

[Shawn Robbins]

7 minutes ago, Bigscrubnus said:

What do you think the ceiling is? If you’re saving that for the Wednesday forecast I don’t mind lol.

Probably saving. It's that upper band of scenarios that are more volatile to me at the moment and I haven't had a chance to take a deep dive into it since last Thursday when $210M was the high end. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Probably saving. It's that upper band of scenarios that are more volatile to me at the moment and I haven't had a chance to take a deep dive into it since last Thursday when $210M was the high end. 

 

Deep down you want that 210M+ OW as well Shawn.

[BruiseCruise]

How are Elvis presales looking so far?

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

How are Elvis presales looking so far?

Looking around where I am, I'd say they're doing only okay aside from the Fan Event shows that Tuesday. Sales closer to release will likely paint a clearer picture.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Shawn said:

Roughly $155-160M worst case as of today. This has never been a giant pre-sales franchise and the ticket price inflation since 2018 should at least get it higher than FK even if admissions were to drop. Final marketing push this week will be hugely important though to get it toward the upper end of tracking.

I’d be very happy with $155-160m to be honest. I wouldn’t be surprised with something like $135-145m. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/1/2022 at 9:14 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-8	JW3	PLF	30	526	2,036	6,386	31.88%	$16.66	$33,922.91
		Standard	75	438	1,209	10,357	11.67%	$12.14	$14,677.51
	JW3 Total		105	964	3,245	16,743	19.38%	$14.98	$48,600.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-8	JW3	N	84	845	2,811	13,674	20.56%	$15.57	$43,761.11
		Y	21	119	434	3,069	14.14%	$11.15	$4,839.31
	JW3 Total		105	964	3,245	16,743	19.38%	$14.98	$48,600.42

 

*New sales since 5/24*

 

JW3 T-8 comp

 - DS 2 - .307x (11.04m)

 - NWH - .211x (10.55m)

 - Batman (Thu) - Missed

 - Batman + EA - Missed

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.64x (24.06m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.1x (21.31m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	JW3	PLF	30	814	2,850	6,386	44.63%	$16.40	$46,745.90
		Standard	75	1,071	2,280	10,357	22.01%	$11.92	$27,173.36
	JW3 Total		105	1,885	5,130	16,743	30.64%	$14.41	$73,919.26
T-4	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	60	3,451	3,451	12,895	26.76%	$15.57	$53,724.34
		Standard	100	1,979	1,979	13,191	15.00%	$11.48	$22,718.08
	JW3 (Fri) Total		160	5,430	5,430	26,086	20.82%	$14.08	$76,442.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	JW3	N	84	1,542	4,353	13,674	31.83%	$15.06	$65,546.72
		Y	21	343	777	3,069	25.32%	$10.78	$8,372.54
	JW3 Total		105	1,885	5,130	16,743	30.64%	$14.41	$73,919.26
T-4	JW3 (Fri)	N	81	3,763	3,763	13,301	28.29%	$15.10	$56,815.66
		Y	79	1,667	1,667	12,785	13.04%	$11.77	$19,626.76
	JW3 (Fri) Total		160	5,430	5,430	26,086	20.82%	$14.08	$76,442.42

 

*New sales since 6/1*

 

JW3 T-3 comp

 - DS 2 - .407x (14.65m)

 - NWH - .3x (14.98m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.11x (19.55m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.014x (21.9m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.677x (24.65m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.18x (22.78m)

 

Previews looking much better here than my regionals.  

 

JW3 Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .381x (27.42m)

 - Batman - 1.17x (40.9m)

 - DS2 - .555x (30.35m)

 - TG2 - 1.53x (49.94m)

 

ATP lower on Friday, almost 50% of shows have matinee pricing (about 30% of sales at the moment)

[Alex SciChannel]

31 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	JW3	PLF	30	814	2,850	6,386	44.63%	$16.40	$46,745.90
		Standard	75	1,071	2,280	10,357	22.01%	$11.92	$27,173.36
	JW3 Total		105	1,885	5,130	16,743	30.64%	$14.41	$73,919.26
T-4	JW3 (Fri)	PLF	60	3,451	3,451	12,895	26.76%	$15.57	$53,724.34
		Standard	100	1,979	1,979	13,191	15.00%	$11.48	$22,718.08
	JW3 (Fri) Total		160	5,430	5,430	26,086	20.82%	$14.08	$76,442.42

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	JW3	N	84	1,542	4,353	13,674	31.83%	$15.06	$65,546.72
		Y	21	343	777	3,069	25.32%	$10.78	$8,372.54
	JW3 Total		105	1,885	5,130	16,743	30.64%	$14.41	$73,919.26
T-4	JW3 (Fri)	N	81	3,763	3,763	13,301	28.29%	$15.10	$56,815.66
		Y	79	1,667	1,667	12,785	13.04%	$11.77	$19,626.76
	JW3 (Fri) Total		160	5,430	5,430	26,086	20.82%	$14.08	$76,442.42

 

*New sales since 6/1*

 

JW3 T-3 comp

 - DS 2 - .407x (14.65m)

 - NWH - .3x (14.98m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.11x (19.55m)

 - Batman + EA - 1.014x (21.9m)

 - Top Gun 2 - 1.677x (24.65m)

 - Top Gun + EA - 1.18x (22.78m)

 

Previews looking much better here than my regionals.  

 

JW3 Fri T-4 comps

 - NWH - .381x (27.42m)

 - Batman - 1.17x (40.9m)

 - DS2 - .555x (30.35m)

 - TG2 - 1.53x (49.94m)

 

ATP lower on Friday, almost 50% of shows have matinee pricing (about 30% of sales at the moment)

Which tracking set would you say is more widespread? Or which is more accurate vs precise?

Edited June 6, 2022 by Alex SciChannel

[katnisscinnaplex]

9 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Which tracking set would you say is more widespread? Or which is more accurate vs precise?

Regionals have cities in three different states, while all of Santikos locations are in and around San Antonio.  Santikos is one of the biggest pre-sale chains, but I'm not sure I've got enough comps there to see trends in genre/age demographics.  What we do know so far is that they love Marvel 😅

[el sid]

Tomorrow both days, promised. But yesterday the weather was so horrible where I live and in other regions (therefore the great Monday update in Germany) that I had to do something nicer today.
 

JW3, counted today for Thursday, June 9:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 186 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 588 (25 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 252 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 90 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 145 (8 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 520 (17 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 1.433 (17 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 3.214.

 

Comps (both counted for Thursday): Uncharted (44M OW) had on Monday of its release week 868 sold tickets = x3.7 = 163M (I should rather compare the Thursday - but just for fun, if the frontloadedness etc. would be the similar it would be 163M at the moment).

And Top Gun: Maverick (126.7M OW) had 2.864 sold tickets on Tuesday of its release week = x1.12 with 1 day left for JW3.
I can only repeat that it's not looking bad at all from my comps and both comparison films (TG: M and Uncharted) had pretty normal or even modest jumps in their last week, nothing which JW3 couldn't reach (but they probably had good walk-ups).

 

The Black Phone had today 143 sold tickets for Thursday, June 23.
Up 51% since last Wednesday.
Comps (both counted for Thursday): The Forever Purge had 104 sold tickets on Monday of its release week

and Old had 150 sold tickets also on Monday of its release week.

Elvis had today 186 sold tickets for Thursday, June 23.
Up 98% since last Thursday.
Comp: Death on the Nile had on Monday of its release week 212 sold tickets for Thursday.

 

Means quite good but not mind-blowing numbers for both films so far.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Elvis and Black Phone should also have big walk-ups, too, which could propel their openings to mind-blowing levels

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/5/2022 at 3:30 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

626

2320

26.98%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

660

3250

20.31%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3404	438	28816	11.81%	15	186

 

AMCs sold	2161
Cinemarks sold	540
Regals sold	386
Harkins sold	317

 

 

0.619x Top Gun 2 T-4 (11.93M)

0.341x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (12.26M)

0.675x Batman T-4 (14.57M)
1.65x Eternals T-4 (15.66M)

1.21x Black Widow T-4 (15.96M)

Jurassic World Dominion Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

701

2320

30.22%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

717

3250

22.06%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3828	424	28816	13.28%	15	186

 

AMCs sold	2386
Cinemarks sold	616
Regals sold	451
Harkins sold	375

 

0.638x Top Gun 2 T-3 (12.29M)

0.354x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (12.75M)

0.700x Batman T-3 (15.11M)

1.23x Black Widow T-3 (16.20M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/5/2022 at 3:39 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex [2 days of sales]

 

T-4 Thursday(105 showings): 3542(+626)/29685

0.565x Top Gun 2 T-4 (10.89M)

0.304x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (10.93M)

0.611x Batman T-4 (13.20M)

1.03x Black Widow T-4 (13.59M)

 

T-5 Friday(152 showings): 3664(+726)/43713

0.564x Top Gun 2 T-5 (18.46M)

0.470x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (25.73M)

1.07x Batman T-5 (37.46M)

1.27x Black Widow T-5 (33.48M)

 

T-6 Saturday(167 showings): 2767(+646)/47621

0.576x Top Gun 2 T-6 (21.89M)

0.569x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (32.89M)

1.46x Batman T-6 (63.20M)

 

T-7 Sunday(149 showings): 972(+227)/42508

0.738x Top Gun 2 T-7 (27.07M)

0.747x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (29.06M)

2.15x Batman T-7 (73.25M)

Jurassic World Dominion Megaplex

 

T-3 Thursday(124 showings): 4151(+609)/32308

0.587x Top Gun 2 T-3 (11.30M)

0.324x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (11.66M)

0.641x Batman T-3 (13.85M)

1.10x Black Widow T-3 (14.50M)

 

T-4 Friday(152 showings): 4550(+886)/43713

0.604x Top Gun 2 T-4 (19.80M)

0.513x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (28.05M)

1.08x Batman T-4 (37.88M)

1.38x Black Widow T-4 (36.38M)

 

T-5 Saturday(167 showings): 3317(+550)/47621

0.587x Top Gun 2 T-5 (22.32M)

0.584x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (33.74M)

1.45x Batman T-5 (62.77M)

 

T-6 Sunday(181 showings): 1153(+181)/46747

0.736x Top Gun 2 T-6 (27.01M)

0.748x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (29.08M)

2.12x Batman T-6 (72.23M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 6/5/2022 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse [3 days of sales]

 

T-4 Thursday(144 showings): 7788(+1088)/20913 ATP: $14.47

0.708x Top Gun 2 T-4 (13.63M)

0.355x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (12.79M)

0.609x Batman T-4 (10.72M)

 

T-5 Friday(191 showings): 8254(+1444)/29772 ATP: $14.48

1.03x Top Gun 2 T-5 (33.60M)

0.403x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (22.03M)

0.610x Batman T-5 (21.37M)

 

T-6 Saturday(202 showings): 8079(+1690)/31183 ATP: $13.70

1.07x Top Gun 2 T-6 (40.65M)

0.369x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (21.35M)

0.567x Batman T-6 (24.54M)

 

T-7 Sunday(165 showings): 4405(+935)/25723 ATP: $13.22

0.972x Top Gun 2 T-7 (35.64M)

0.354x Doctor Strange 2 T-7 (13.78M)

0.667x Batman T-7 (21.74M)

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-3 Thursday(168 showings): 8517(+729)/22863 ATP: $14.44

0.718x Top Gun 2 T-3 (13.84M)

0.367x Doctor Strange 2 T-3 (13.22M)

0.610x Batman T-3 (10.73M)

 

T-4 Friday(225 showings): 9282(+1028)/32455 ATP: $14.45

1.02x Top Gun 2 T-4 (33.31M)

0.419x Doctor Strange 2 T-4 (22.94M)

0.609x Batman T-4 (21.30M)

 

T-5 Saturday(242 showings): 9174(+1095)/34482 ATP: $13.81

1.08x Top Gun 2 T-5 (41.08M)

0.390x Doctor Strange 2 T-5 (22.53M)

0.565x Batman T-5 (24.45M)

 

T-6 Sunday(165 showings): 5109(+704)/29205 ATP: $13.29

0.956x Top Gun 2 T-6 (35.06M)

0.373x Doctor Strange 2 T-6 (14.51M)

0.613x Batman T-6 (20.94M)

[EmpireCity]

Where the Crawdad's Sing goes on sale 6/23.  3pm shows.