The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Brainbug]

Final prediction by @Shawn/BOP for the weekend is up:

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/preliminary-weekend-box-office-forecast-pixars-lightyear/

 

Lightyear - 84M

Dominion - 54M
Top Gun - 40M

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Final prediction by @Shawn/BOP for the weekend is up:

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/preliminary-weekend-box-office-forecast-pixars-lightyear/

 

Lightyear - 84M

Dominion - 54M
Top Gun - 40M

Hard for me to see $84M unless previews are closer to $8M and not the $6.5-7M we’re all seeing. I like 10-10.5x for the weekend, whatever previews end up being.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Lightyear Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	196	19452	22741	3289	14.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

578

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold T-0 [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [12:00-12:45]	131.93		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	108.40%		5.94m
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	101.29		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	83.24%		6.33m
SC [12:00-12:55]	68.44		634	4806		0/192	20644/25450	18.88%		5847	56.25%		6.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Lightyear's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

Lightyear = 0.55586x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [6m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday Sales:    869/1325 [65.58% sold] [FINAL]
Thursday Sales:    2420/21416 [11.30% sold] [+578 tickets]
    
Regal:       367/3944  [9.31% sold]
Matinee:    272/2123  [12.81% | 8.27% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Nice start to the day, as all comps increased.  Let's see if it can keep up the momentum at the final report.

 

Lightyear Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:50pm - 4:20pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	196	18650	22741	4091	17.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Mid Day

802

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since [Mid-Day]	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A [3:50-4:30]	134.84		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	134.84%		6.07m
SC [4:40-5:30]	69.97		1041	5847		0/196	19856/25703	22.75%		5847	69.97%		6.16m
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	103.54		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	103.54%		6.47m
JWD [3:45-4:35]	37.31		1476	10966		0/290	22873/33839	32.41%		10966	37.31%		6.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Lightyear's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMP***

Lightyear = 0.56174x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-0 [6.07m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2019 to 2022.

 

Wednesday Sales:    869/1325 [65.58% sold] [FINAL]
Thursday Sales:    3222/21416 [15.04% sold] [+802 tickets]
    
Regal:       567/3944  [14.38% sold]
Matinee:    416/2123  [19.59% | 10.17% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Very nice amount of walkups.  As I take a look, that JWD comp probably is too high, as while LY has it beat on PLF+DBOX (40.5% vs 36.4%), JWD has the 3D crown (4.6% vs 10.9%).  Plus more kids tickets, presumably.  Still, a good sign on raw growth.

 

Sonic 2 had a lot more PLF+DBOX (54.5%), but no 3D. Probably very slightly more adult/teen skewing as well.  So let's call for 6.4m +/- .3m.

 

Was seeing a steady stream of sales though, so room for optimism there.

[keysersoze123]

Dont forget Sunday will behave like a juiced up saturday. So its internal multi will be better than norm. 

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, ZurgXXR said:

Hard for me to see $84M unless previews are closer to $8M and not the $6.5-7M we’re all seeing. I like 10-10.5x for the weekend, whatever previews end up being.

If it were to play like frontloaded event animation ala TS4 or I2, that's a totally valid argument.

 

Thing is, I don't think we've seen near enough data to suggest this is being treated like an event movie on those levels by either the studio or the very short pre-sale window audience. This is slow burn behavior in terms of pre-sales, the question is to what extent. Don't think we can automatically assume pandemic era comps will apply for this movie, we're all just using them solely because that's all we have available. 

 

I'm on the very low end of that preview range you mentioned and still see $75M+ in multiple models with it. Not locked, but, there are reasonable pre-pandemic summer precedents with just as much weight as the more frontloaded (event) ones. We just have to see where everything lands for a movie that's up there with TGM in how unique it is to track in the current market.

 

Anyway, didn't you tell me you were close to $80M yesterday or am I thinking of someone else? 😛

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, Shawn said:

If it were to play like frontloaded event animation ala TS4 or I2, that's a totally valid scenario.

 

Thing is, I don't think we've seen near enough data to suggest this is being treated like an event movie on those levels by either the studio or the very short pre-sale window audience. This is slow burn behavior in terms of pre-sales, the question is to what extent. Don't think we automatically assume pandemic era comps will apply for this movie, we're all just using them solely because that's all we have available. 

 

I'm on the very low end of that preview range you mentioned and still see $75M+ in multiple models with it. Not locked, but, there are reasonable pre-pandemic summer precedents with just as much weight as the more frontloaded (event) ones. We just have to see where everything lands for a movie that's up there with TGM in how unique it is to track in the current market.

 

Anyway, didn't you tell me you were close to $80M yesterday? 😛

 

Problem is that FRI sales are even shittier than THU. 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Shawn said:

If it were to play like frontloaded event animation ala TS4 or I2, that's a totally valid scenario.

 

Thing is, I don't think we've seen near enough data to suggest this is being treated like an event movie on those levels by either the studio or the very short pre-sale window audience. This is slow burn behavior in terms of pre-sales, the question is to what extent. Don't think we automatically assume pandemic era comps will apply for this movie, we're all just using them solely because that's all we have available. 

 

I'm on the very low end of that preview range you mentioned and still see $75M+ in multiple models with it. Not locked, but, there are reasonable pre-pandemic summer precedents with just as much weight as the more frontloaded (event) ones. We just have to see where everything lands for a movie that's up there with TGM in how unique it is to track in the current market.

 

Anyway, didn't you tell me you were close to $80M yesterday? 😛

 

 

Here's hoping you're right!  If you asked me point blank for a number today, I'd give you $66M, give or take...

 

So, I guess I'd still say - I see your weekend range and take the under:)...

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

My 3XD showing of Lightyear had about 20 total people and one child complaining whole time and wanting to go home

[Shawn Robbins]

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Problem is that FRI sales are even shittier than THU. 

Based on what comps?

 

Weekend sales have picked up pace from what several sources have told me.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Based on what comps? Weekend sales look very good in our samples.

I now mostly don't do movie to movie comps but project the final sales based on trend. The main factor will be how it does today but trend in last 4 days is really bad.

Edited June 17, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

16 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Lightyear Harkins T-1 Days

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	11	3,448	1,869	54.21%	$29,289	$15.67
Thursday	339	82,864	3,449	4.16%	$41,645	$12.07
Total	350	86,312	5,318	6.16%	$70,934	$13.34

 

Comps

0.37x Jurassic World: Dominion - $6.57M (THU alone $4.25M)

0.77x Eternals - $7.30M (THU alone $4.75M)

1.41x Sonic 2 (THU only) - $7.3M

 

Good day at Harkins. Added 1236 for THU alone and Early access did well as well. THU final may hit 11-12K.

 

At 5:00 PM PST, 8409 admits for THU. 11-12K looks like will happen. 

[keysersoze123]

12 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Based on what comps?

 

Weekend sales have picked up pace from what several sources have told me.

He is going by MTC1 friday data he had from yesterday. Walkups today have been great and this is thursday. I am optimistic its going to do better than what we think today based on just presales. 

[M37]

32 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Based on what comps?

 

Weekend sales have picked up pace from what several sources have told me.

It’s smaller chains, but @Inceptionzq does full Th/F/S/S breakdowns for Megaplex and Drafthouse. The final sales numbers are more frontloaded than Ghostbusters:Afterlife at the same point, particularly Th vs Sat, which does not suggest a higher IM 

 

Even getting to a 10x in today’s market is backloaded, 25% more so than JWD 

[Cooper Legion]

I think 11-13x. We’ve seen kid animation hit high multipliers post-pandemic just like we have pre-pandemic, and this is semi-event at best. Sonic got 11.5x from similar previews and arguably more of a fan factor — though spring vs summer and normal sun vs holiday factors muck it up.

[Gopher]

Going 1.1/5.5/16.6/18.4/19.5 for the final weekend-- but it'll probably be estimated closer to 60 flat since I doubt the studios will predict Father's Day increases in their estimates.

 

This will sound like hyperbole, but when Lightyear was announced, that Chris Evans tweet describing it as "not about the toy, but about the real human Buzz Lightyear is based on"... I think this was never gonna gain the momentum they probably wanted it to after that tweet. For one, they start the actual movie with text correcting that tweet, because Pixar attested people became so confused by what this movie even was. But that eventual sort-of clarification never helped people understand why they made this movie, what it was going to feel like to watch, or why they would find the real Buzz Lightyear interesting when the appeal of the character is the comedy of a toy who thinks he's a space ranger. A 61/190-200 run isn't bad, and is of the higher end we've seen family movies perform at lately, but I feel like if Pixar wanted to borrow IP to make huge-budget sci-fi, they should've convinced Lucasfilm to let them make an animated Star Wars movie...

 

Or just, y'know, made an original sci-fi movie that people would've given a shot anyway...

[CJohn]

I love Shawn and his weekend articles but no way Lightyear reaches 80M OW. The movie is flopping everywhere.

[Bigscrubnus]

Yeah, I’m pretty sure Shawn is gonna be wrong on this one. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

27 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I think 11-13x. We’ve seen kid animation hit high multipliers post-pandemic just like we have pre-pandemic, and this is semi-event at best. Sonic got 11.5x from similar previews and arguably more of a fan factor — though spring vs summer and normal sun vs holiday factors muck it up.

What are you thinking day wise? 

[ringedmortality]

17 minutes ago, Gopher said:

but I feel like if Pixar wanted to borrow IP to make huge-budget sci-fi, they should've convinced Lucasfilm to let them make an animated Star Wars movie...

 

The synergy they left on the table

[YM!]

My showing was like 1/3 full in the PLF and the other showings were barren.