The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[EmpireCity]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

Things look gaining momentum for both Elvis and black phone isn’t it? The comps continue to trend upward.

 

on related note, BP is no longer 100% on RT (now at 90%) while Elvis continue to rise to above 80% as I remember the movie once hit 68% at certain point of time some ago. 

 

I liked The Black Phone, but to be fair the initial screenings were held at Fantastic Fest last September where writer C. Robert Cargill lives and essentially has been an Alamo Drafthouse customer and friend for 25 years.  That was about the most friendly and loyal crowd to show this movie to.  

 

It is more like a 70% RT positive movie, not the 100% that stuck there for the last 8-9 months.  

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

The Elvis Dolby fan event at AMC here is basically sold out. Less than a dozen seats left. This weekend, Cinemark added an extra screen for it.

[Jake Lockley]

3 hours ago, Grebacio said:

Might not happen but only by a few millions

Honestly... I think it may just happen. 

[charlie Jatinder]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Why do you think I'm whining asking for an accurate Wed/Thr number for Lightyear from Shawn (or anyone else with actual connections and not trying to reverse engineer the number/guess at it)?  It ain't just because I want to feel better about my call. 😂

 

I reckon Sonic 2 is semi-close, but, yes, almost certainly had more teen/twentysomething ticket sales than Minons 2 will.  I also reckon Ghostbusters: Afterlife will have far more adult tickets sold, even though that's my closest family movie I think I have.

 

Still, I'd really like to get a LY number if at all possible.  And not a guess/estimate, either as I said, as I don't like using those.

Light year wasn't really kids heavy. Sonic will be better I guess.

[lorddemaxus]

Elvis 50 mil+ OW.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Light year wasn't really kids heavy. Sonic will be better I guess.

 

Maybe not, but even one more in-the-ballpark comp will help.  Can't hurt, esp if it looks like Minions 2 is over-performing in Sacto.

not sayin' it is — just like having more data points to cover contingencies. 

[Ronin46]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

Elvis 50 mil+ OW.

 Well I hope so but I think 40+ is clearly in play for it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Elvis Marcus Theaters:

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thu (T-2)

Showings: 300

Seats Sold: 2583/39428

 

Fri (T-3)

Showings: 637

Seats Sold: 6342/81013

 

Don't have any comps, but Fri being way ahead of Thu is promising. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Ronin46 said:

 Well I hope so but I think 40+ is clearly in play for it.

No, I'm doing an EmpireCity lock right here.

[Ronin46]

Just now, lorddemaxus said:

No, I'm doing an EmpireCity lock right here.

 

Is 600M locked for it?

[Ronin46]

Rocketman 1.75M previews - 25.75M OW (14.7x)

Bohemian Rhapsody 3.9M previews - 51M OW (13.09x)

 

Its a bit complicated with EA to sift through. I would guess 10-11x with EA included and around 12-13x for just Thursday.

Long run time and lots of competition but should be really backloaded with not many showtimes for previews. 

 

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Is 600M locked for it?

Look out endgame

[M37]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

Elvis Marcus Theaters:

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thu (T-2)

Showings: 300

Seats Sold: 2583/39428

 

Fri (T-3)

Showings: 637

Seats Sold: 6342/81013

 

Don't have any comps, but Fri being way ahead of Thu is promising. 

I know it’s going to fluctuate by title/genre, but could use the average or range of market share of Marcus vs Drafthouse, Megaplax or even MTC1/2 (which you have) and the corresponding T- points for comps in those chains to at least get in the ballpark estimate until Marcus comps are built up 

 

For example, if Megaplex were ~1%, Marcus~ 3% [just guessing on MS numbers] then those sales figures would suggest $2.77 for Thursday and $11.38 for TFri as compared to @Inceptionzq Megaplex T-2 (before any price increase adjustment is applied)

 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by M37

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

I know it’s going to fluctuate by title/genre, but could use the average or range of market share of Marcus vs Drafthouse, Megaplax or even MTC1/2 (which you have) and the corresponding T- points for comps in those chains to at least get in the ballpark estimate until Marcus comps are built up 

 

For example, if Megaplex were ~1%, Marcus~ 3% [just guessing on MS numbers] then those sales figures would suggest $2.77 for Thursday and $11.38 for TFri as compared to @Inceptionzq Megaplex T-2 (before any price increase adjustment is applied)

 

 

Not a bad idea, though would likely require a lot of thread diving on my part which makes me a bit leery. 

[charlie Jatinder]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

I know it’s going to fluctuate by title/genre, but could use the average or range of market share of Marcus vs Drafthouse, Megaplax or even MTC1/2 (which you have) and the corresponding T- points for comps in those chains to at least get in the ballpark estimate until Marcus comps are built up 

 

For example, if Megaplex were ~1%, Marcus~ 3% [just guessing on MS numbers] then those sales figures would suggest $2.77 for Thursday and $11.38 for TFri as compared to @Inceptionzq Megaplex T-2 (before any price increase adjustment is applied)

 

The behaviour of chains differs on daily basis. Some of them are previews heavy, some does better in FSS. 

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Not a bad idea, though would likely require a lot of thread diving on my part which makes me a bit leery. 

True, may not be worth the effort for something like Elvis, but perhaps for bigger opening like Thor

[Menor the Destroyer]

Minions 2 Marcus Theaters:

 

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 611

Seats Sold: 2637/97604

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 894

Seats Sold: 3653/141833

 

As expected Fri ahead of Thu already and that gap should only grow as we get closer to release. Thu itself also looks very healthy, although Marcus has some blocked seats (marked in an irregular way that makes it hard for me to account for them). Just a caveat to keep in mind for these low PS films going forward. 

 

Will try to post a Thor update for Thu/Fri tonight along with final #s for Elvis early shows. Minions next update probably after Elvis opens. 

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

On 6/20/2022 at 6:25 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Elvis early shows

MTC1 - 8553/15246 193244.51 81 shows

MTC2 - 4218/8040 65814.75 41 shows

 

Strong with limited shows. 

 

Elvis Early Shows Final

MTC1 - 10383/15206 234287.58 81 shows

MTC2 -  5569/8236 87206.50 41 shows

 

Not much of a growth today but its already sold well enough. Thinking ~ 0.5-0.6m early shows. 

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Elvis Harkins T-3 Days

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,312	57.47%	$20,115	$15.33
Thursday	99	23,679	1,017	4.29%	$11,477	$11.29
Total	106	25,962	2,329	8.97%	$31,592	$13.56

 

Comps

0.51x Eternals T-3 days - $4.84M (THU only $2.11M)

 

Strong numbers in the chain. FRI sales are impressive as well. 

 

Elvis Harkins Early Access Final

 

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	7	2,283	1,579	69.16%	$24,403	$15.45

[ZackM]

9 hours ago, ZackM said:

Sorry for the delay...here is Thor4 Alpha from last night:

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	13	6,298
Seats Added	2,107	1,094,306
Seats Sold	4,859	181,069
6/20/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	437	6,311	185,928	1,096,413	16.96%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	7	63	246	467
ATP
$17.27

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	15	13	6,298
Seats Added	1,487	2,107	1,094,306
Seats Sold	4,143	4,859	181,069
6/21/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	438	6,326	190,071	1,097,900	17.31%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	7	63	251	484
ATP
$17.26